77 turn equity vs unknown drunk guy
1/3 NLHE 9 handed
Table is late overnight with several unknown faces. We're a bit tired and should probably leave soon but we're stuck ~200 bucks, in for 2 BIs. 800$. SB.
V - unknown drunk/drugged up MAWG. Came in late and hasn't had any real showdowns at the point of this hand but his vibe is that he has no idea what he's doing. He's asking how to raise and how to call, whose action, he's accidentally opened 20$ UTG earlier thinking he was straddling but his chips crossed the line (strict rule here). My expectation is that he's betting and opening wide but also calling wide. No showdowns at the time of this hand. VPIP about 50% over very small sample ~1 hr. He called down a bet small-bet small-bet small line IP from an OOP sfwd reg and lost to TPTK AQo on Q-7-4-4-2. 475$. BTN.
---- H covers V's 475 and BB's 290 ----
Folds to V who opens BTN to 15, H sees 7♣ 7♠ and calls, BB (loose passive pre, sfwd post fish w/ high vpip) calls off 290. 3-ways OOP.
Flop 45 - K♣ 6♥ 5♦
Check, check, V bets 25, H calls, BB calls.
Turn 120 - 4♠
H checks, BB checks, V bets 85 with 350 back.... BB has ~250 back
15 Replies
Hero is in SB here? I would 3b versus a button open.
As played, I would call and plan on donking if we hit. I don't think XR reps anything, as you shouldn't have many straights, flushes, 2p, or sets on this card. You also run into a bunch of brick walls as V is never folding any TP.
If he bets river on a brick, it's the world's easiest fold IMO.
I’m ok with the call pre in the SB with the good implied odds and the passive BB yet to act.
I’m folding to the flop bet. Hero’s hand is a bluff catcher. Both Vs have many Kx in their ranges.
AP, to call the turn, hero has to be confident Vs chip will go in when hero hits the straight in the river. The straight will not be concealed. I’m probably just folding against an unknown.
It's very player dependent, but I would really consider raising the turn here. If you can get the third player to fold a bad king, or even something like 99, this is a great outcome.
It sort of sucks if the drunk guy then jams on us, but how likely is that? If he calls we should be able to badly outplay him otr.
I would also 3Bet this hand from the SB vs the Button with a likely wide range. This would change everything depending on the action.
As a general rule, I’m trying to get in cheap and play small pairs if possible, so a call is not a bad play either.
Against the average player, I fold the flop - not calling down, missed the set mine, so fold now. I know how tight I am.
But against the described villain, calling flop.
Folding the turn even though we improved & picked up a one in six chance of making the straight. What is the thought process with a guy that opened & barreled in a reasonable way?
I would look left and see if the BB is telegraphing a fold - if he’s dropping out, it would be reason to consider a call.
Not really crazy about letting the goofy people snake a pot off of me. From the description, it doesn’t seem like villains line is air & I can see 88, 99, TT, a weak king and simply few hands worse than ours in his range.
So player dependent
You say you’ve seen no showdowns, so maybe you can make this guy fold. Check-raise flop or turn looks strong, but this guy might not understand this.
Can’t really narrow down this solution as all options can be on the table according to your perception of villain & his actions.
The one thing I do know is that I don’t want to lose a big pot against a guy that doesn’t know how to play. Don’t have to win every pot and better opportunities are likely ahead.
Grunch:
PRE - 3B or fold. Don't flat call. I'd 3B.
FLOP - fold.
TURN - yuck.
I guess call, and hope BB doesn't x/r.
I don't like how we got here, so I don't love any of our options.
Result: I call turn for 85, BB folds, River T♣, I check fold to V's AI.
I still like the 3Bet pre - maybe you get 4Bet and can get away from the hand. At the least, you get a better idea of the strength of villain
As played, you picked up a draw - not sure you’re getting the price to see if it hits. I was leaning your way, but when I plugged this board into PokerCruncher, I was surprised that if v has a king, even with your draws, you lose 80% of the time. If v doesn’t have top pair, what does he have?
So, I think I would have done what you did and see if the draw comes in, but we were wrong. It’s a fold on the turn.
Disagree.
If we're going to set-mine by just flatting pre, we should just x/f fold flop when we don't hit our set, and don't have a good draw. Once BB over-calls flop, we should assume 77 is no good, and we should definitely x/f most turns.
When we pick up the OESD, there's a glimmer of hope, and we're getting good enough IO's to draw, so we can continue.
Think I'm ok with preflop. Not really convinced that setmining OOP maximum 3ways in most spots is actually profitable, but with slightly better than a setmining-only hand and this guy in the mix and facing a ~relatively ok sizing, I'm cool with it.
Think I'm ok with flop if he does open and bet wide. I'm guessing he's like most and doesn't double barrel air, so I'm probably just giving up UI if he barrels again on the turn (especially if it is still multiway).
Awkward turn spot. I'm never going to attempt to turn my hand into a semi-bluff here against anyone described as not knowing what they are doing, especially when they've bet decently large into 2 opponents on a big street. But with the BB still in the mix behind us it does make continuing a little dicey. 87 got there although we do block a lot of it. Could BB still be tarping with a set? A lotta times BB will donk turn with a good hand for fear of it checking thru multiway. We might have 10 outs, but they could be dirty plus all of them put a 4-liner on board, so you'd think our IO would be low... but maybe not against this guy? Doesn't really look like our hand could be best at this point. Think overall it's probably a sigh fold?
GcluelessNLnoobG
Preflop fold would be the silliest, although it's still not an awesome continue either.
Flop fold wouldn't be completely silly, but I'm ~ok with continuing (but won't argue against folding either).
Turn is probably a fairly silly continue, imo.
Ghandgotsillierbythestreet,imoG
Read. V barely knows how to play poker. This is not a figure of speech.
You guys: well he c bet so he must have at least top pair.
Here is the truth the msm doesn't want you to see.
Pre... never fold a mid pp to a terrible player. You could 3! Flat is ok. It is 1/3. We are not going to get squeezed much. Linus love is not in the bb. Even if we do, we might get to set mine 3 ways with at least one clueless v.
Flop. V could have any 2 and there is only one over. We have back doors. Fold is terrible.
Our call actually puts some pressure on bb. He will have to fold a lot of hands, maybe even some that beat us. Again, he is very unlikely to make some tricky squeeze. He has 9 million combos that just miss this flop and fold.
Turn we have 10 outs, occasionally 8. We are beating button somewhat regularly. If he has a big hand he might not even notice a 4 liner coming in. Who tf knows what he has or will do. But implied odds are great.
Bb could have the best hand but we block straights. He is gonna have a lot of weak kings that should be unhappy even if we call. That's fine.
There will be times he folds a weak king and river goes check check and we beat button.
Raising could be worth it too, as he has to fold almost anything and we might have the best hand vs v. We might make them both fold better hands! E.g. k9 and jj.
Otoh if he calls that just adds to our odds if we are drawing.
It depends on reads.
Read. V barely knows how to play poker. This is not a figure of speech. You guys: well he c bet so he must have at least top pair. Here is the truth the msm doesn't want you to see. Pre... never fold a mid pp to a terrible player. You could 3! Flat is ok. It is 1/3. We are not going to get squeezed much. Linus love is not in the bb. Even if we do, we might get to set mine 3
The highlighted is just lol and completely contradicts your overall argument.
But, it's your money, if you think this hand is well played I wish you the best of luck.
