Bad decision leads to a squeeze and more bad decisions
Typical 4 8 game, this hand reminded me why I am not yet having all the success I expect. I am embarrassed by how I played this hand and almost didn't post it.
In NLHE sections I see alot of posts about poor early street decisions leading to bad spots.
3 limps to SB who folds, I look down at 55 and check my option. 1.5 BB with rake.
Flop comes 457r. I bet, fold, somewhat aggressive and tricky reg V1 raises, passive station old guy V2 takes two, I 3!, V1 calls-he could play 66 or higher PP this way, or a draw. V2 calls. 6 BB
Turn is a terrible 6 bringing a FD as well. I lose my mind and bet. V1 insta raises, V2 3! 12 BB in the pot. V1 could cap.
Getting 6 to 1 but fearing a cap, I panick and fold.
6 Replies
Mostly like you will have to call 3 to win 18 so you have to have 1/7 equity to call profitably and you have 8-10 outs most likely as I doubt either of them have two pair or set, most likely both have straights. Seems like you have enough odds to call to try to hit your FH.
Mostly like you will have to call 3 to win 18 so you have to have 1/7 equity to call profitably and you have 8-10 outs most likely as I doubt either of them have two pair or set, most likely both have straights. Seems like you have enough odds to call to try to hit your FH.
+1. You should also check the turn but you know that already.
Checking the turn makes this hand play different and I don't panick fold. I still play so bad sometimes in RT. I had odds to call the turn 3! anyway and I should have taken time to think that through.
Of the course the river paired the four and they both had straights. I still would have posted this hand either way. Great example of how not to play.
If you know you’re drawing it doesn’t hurt to take 30 sec-1 minute to calculate if it’s worth continuing.
cant blame you for folding but i think its a small error to do so.
Poker is a game of incomplete information in which we have to make quick decisions under pressure. So we're going to make mistakes. Don't beat yourself up about it. That said, I think there's some value in analyzing what those mistakes were and why we made them in the moment.
"Turn is a terrible 6 bringing a FD as well. I lose my mind and bet."
Why? Why did you lose your mind? Because you showed extreme aggression on the flop and were perhaps embarrassed to slow down on the turn—as if switching from extreme aggression to a more passive check would be a sign of weakness or less manly. Maybe you feared your opponents would laugh at you or mock you.*
In future, let them. If you want to win at poker, leave your ego at the door. Your job is to make good decisions, that's all. If you can do that consistently and be a little lucky, you'll have the last laugh when you cash out at the end of the night.
Poker is a game of incomplete information, but you got more information with the turn card. It was bad. So you switch to check-call mode. Get used to doing that; check-call mode is a very effective tactic when (a) a scare card comes or (b) your opponents are taking very aggressive action. It's not a sign of weakness or surrender; it's a sign of caution.
Now let's consider the math on the turn. It's almost a certainty that one or both of your opponents have a straight, given the action. So let's assume you need to fill up to win. There are 46 unknown cards, 10 of which give you a boat or quads. So your odds of improving are 36 to 10 against, or 3.6 to 1 against.
There are 6 big bets in the pot already. If your opponents cap the betting on the turn, that's 4 more bets from each of them, or 14 total. And you will be required to put in 4 bets to win 14. So, assuming a cap (the worst-case scenario here and not a certainty), you're getting pot odds of 14 to 4, or 3.5 to 1.
This is just under what you would need to justify a call. However, (a) there's no guaranty the action will be capped, and (b) you'll probably be able to win 1 bet from each of them on the river if you do improve.
Let's say it goes 3 bets on the turn, and you have implied odds of winning 2 more bets if you hit. Now you're looking at implied pot odds of 6 + 6 + 2 = 14 to 3, or about 4.7 to 1. This is an easy call on the turn. You're still going to lose ~78% of the time, but the times you win will more than make up for the turn calls you lose.
There's no need to panic. You're on a draw, but the size of pot easily justifies trying to make your hand.
"In NLHE sections I see a lot of posts about poor early street decisions leading to bad spots."
That analysis doesn't apply here. Your preflop action was fine. Your flop action was fine. You made two bad decisions on the turn, but they're both easily avoidable.
Thanks for posting the hand.
*I've played in games where I would raise preflop with AK, get 6 callers, and check when the flop missed me—and other players would then make fun of me for having raised pre when I'm not able to follow it up with a C-bet. But I'm not there to please or impress them; I'm there to make the best decisions I can make with the information I have at each new decision point.
I appreciate the feedback, I was so caught off guard by the station 3 bet I needed to take more time than I did.
And I am not worried about my image/standing with the 2 regs in the hand(or any of the 4/8 regs tbh), V1 regularly avoids my tables and V2 is just a nice loose old guy.
