AQo Double pair

An excellent question. Even w/o an ace, your range is still b/f turn.

To answer another question, yes, random Vs are bad enough to coldcall 54s here despite being OOP and only having 8.5-1 IO. You need to be right only ~30% or so, so it's a big mistake to fold unless you're almost certain they have it. Which a random 2/5 rec probably does here.

If I was going to b/f, I damned sure would've bet smaller. As it is...tbh, I probably talk myself into calling that V is shoving a whiffed club draw or getting stupid with 76. Then internally berate myself.

You potted river and they jammed over you.. They're not bluffing enough for you to call. Not on these reads.

I get the temptation to check the turn actually. It's pretty hard for V to have anything. It's very unlikely he will CR bluff this card or something like that. I still think we want to bet as there might be some straight draws, some worse aces up occasionally and giving a free card to a hand like 99 can only lead to disaster, never to us making more money. I'd probably bet small and invite him to do things like draw to a worse 2p. If we bet very small, maybe once in a while he actually will try to bluff, thinking we dislike the ace, but again, rarely. It's good rule of thumb to just give bad players as many decisions as possible.

OTR, I think we call. He could easily think a worse 2p is the nuts. I'm not sure he checks a flopped set all the way.

Yeah, have to call. He can be shoving worse aces up for value.

what was your thinking behind checking turn? start there.

Why you should bet the turn:
You tell a story with your actions
Honestly, not much info happens pre or on the flop - villain’s range is not narrowed down much. But it gets real on the turn. By betting the turn, we continue our (true, in this case) story of strength.

So, when you check the turn, the story changes - now villain thinks you were jockeying around early, but really don’t have much. You planted the idea that you could be run off your hand.

River Check-Raise is rarely a ‘bluff’ line. I would say they ‘have it’ most of the time. But try to understand that you encouraged villain to bluff you, so now it’s unclear whether he has it or not.

You made this difficult
Keep the initiative - keep betting, especially when you improve - and be ready to fold if you get raised = bet/fold

You should have included the river brick - it may not have seemed important to you, but we might find some meaning in it. When it’s hard to find any bluffs, value sticks out.

As played, did you pick up any clues? Apparently bought in for the max, is their any indication v could be a splashy player. It’s just very hard for me to call unless I feel he’s using the check-raise to fold you.

Line consistency is vital. Some players float just waiting for you to flinch (check-back turn) and then they pounce.

The population is never bluffing here - overbet river gets check-raised is not a bluff
But then again, you have top 2pair
What a fine mess you got us in

What’s the point of betting the river after not inducing v to lead out by checking behind on the turn? I bet he spiked a set of sevens.

If I'm looking at this right, the only true river bricks are non-club 8's and 9's. Every other card potentially completes a draw or pairs the board. It might help to know the river card here.

As a general heuristic, because so many low stakes players will VPIP with a ton of AX combos, any time there's an ace on board, it's possible for someone to have aces up, almost no matter what the rest of the board is.

If V flopped, turned, or rivered aces up, he very likely thinks he's nutted after we bet the Q-high flop but check back the ace turn. Our line looks like we have AK or some other AX that's going for thin value.

If V has top 2P beat, he's just getting our money, when we take this line on turn and river.

The snap shove is interesting. Doubtful V was expecting H to bet so large but in the time H was measuring up the bet, V is thinking of what to do. ...if they had two pair why not bet out on the river? This seems like a trap, maybe hoping H would at least take a stab.

The only reason I check the turn is to get him to bet the river. I can't fold now. Would be terrible for him to check a straight on the river, and your bet looks bluffy.

1. I have a very strong hand on the turn (top 2p), not many scary cards.

2. Villain can have a lot of Ax, Qx and might try to take a stab in the river in which case I have him crushed

3. My overbet on the river looks like a bluff, possible worse Ax or Qx would lean to call me on the river

4. Anything worse than an Ace is going to fold to a cbet in turn, hence the check to disguise such strong hand. Felt like it'd be an overkill. Wanted to keep all Qs and small pairs in.

5. Sets are out of the question because they would at least bet the river given that I checked the turn, but Villain was checking in all streets.

How is my play bad?

I could've sworn it was a non-club 7. Hence my comment on 76, Bully's about a set of 7s.

This is a live small stakes game and the most common type of mistakes players make is calling too much.
So without a read to the contrary (you don't provide) the default strategy would be to value bet all the way, not get tricky. I think if you feel villain has a weak range you can consider betting small but to totally give up value seems like a mistake on the turn

if villain has Ax he's not folding the turn, so bet the turn. 1/2 pot looks good. lots of people will also call Qx for 1/2 pot to try and spike two pair or trips on the river, or because its not that expensive to call (yet).

people usually do not bluff into boards that favor the pre flop raiser

overbetting the river does not look like a bluff, it looks like you slowplayed a set of aces. overbet bluffs are generally used in two situations: 1) when the river brings a flush possibilty, and 2) when the board does not favor the preflop raiser, and you are the caller (not the raiser).

regardless,

if he has Qx hes not calling a river overbet. the most he's calling is maybe 1/3 pot. maybe less.

your thought process does not fit into what the typical 1/3 player is thinking. put yourself in their shoes instead of into your own head.

as played what is the "Brick"? a 7 and 2 are not bricks if that is what you are thinking. this river line looks like the nuts to me and its hard for me to imagine what you beat besides a bluff. i suppose a chop is possible too. the nuts CR the river here for sure with some frequency, because they know that Ax is in your range when you check turn and youll bet it on the river.

1. Yes you do, so bet that strong hand
2. Expecting villain to bet your hand is awful
3. Nobody knows what your line is here
4. Yes, people play aces & that’s your target
5. Anyone check-raising an overbet, can’t expect to get folds, no matter what happened before.

Your play is bad, because you have no idea what to do on the river.

No need to be defensive
We are simply giving you opinions about a poker hand with less information than you had. There are many lines to take & all of them have plus & minuses.

By keeping the initiative and betting, you put maximum pressure on your opponents who will make mistakes. We sometimes want to take FreeCards, but rarely want to give one.

It’s possible & even likely that the villain that could beat you, would have folded if you kept betting. If you won, it was a good guess, not a good play.

But this is just the opinion of a guy with no other motivation than to help.

Turn is a pure bet, I'd imagine an overbet in theory. Your hand does not look like a bluff at all to me. Actually it's one of the more underbluffed lines. Bet check overbet.

I'm genuinely confused why you created the thread then. If sets are out of the question there are no hands we can lose to. What am I missing here?

You're right that if Villain doesn't have an Ax he is not folding the turn cbet, but he will fold the majority of his range. JJ-77, maybe some Qx too. Don't we want to keep these hands in too and maybe let them try steal the pot? Given that we have a strong hand?

Why do you think a Qx wouldn't call a river overbet? If I were in his shoes with a Qx or even a pocket pair, I'd think that the pre-flop raiser didn't hit the Ace because he checked the turn so I could consider calling his overbet on the river because he might be trying to steal the pot. In 1/3 & 2/5 blinds I feel like when people have pocket pairs below Aces, they tend to be passive and that's the image I was trying to convey.

Why do you think that Ax is on my range when I check the turn?

As played, would you fold or call his all in?

Let's say that we bet turn, he calls, he checks, Hero ?? bet river or check?

Thank you for your reply. Genuinely trying to understand the best line here. By no means I was being defensive, sorry if it came across that way.

1. Okay, Let's say that we bet turn, he calls; River: he checks, Hero ?? bet river or check?

2. My thinking when checking turn was:

Villain has a lot of Ax (including A6, AQ, A3), he will bet river. I can shove all in and put him in a difficult spot. Sure a set of 6s or 3s will be inside too and we're crushed.
Villain will want to get to showdown in river with Qx or any mid-bottom pocket pairs. JJ-55 (except 66 and 33 of course)

With an overbet on the river we precisely target all those hands that we beat.

3. Targetting Aces only, when it's only about 30-35% of their range will get their other 70% (Qx, mid-low pocket pairs) to fold. Is this optimal for us? Any Ace would also bet on the river given that we checked turn.

~
Overall I will consider mostly bet/bet/bet in strong hands, although sometimes I'm afraid that my hand is face-up when betting continously hence I tried the turn check amongst the other reasons I just mentioned

Let's say that we bet turn, he calls;
River: he checks, Hero ?? bet river or check?
What if Villain donks the river after we cbet the turn?

As for the last part, sorry, I meant that my logic said that a set of 6s or 3s would bet at least on the river. I find it hard to encounter a set in the showdown given their overall passivity specially at the river. Do you agree?

Vs a population that calls too much I'd bet bet bet. If we bet turn and he bets river it just depends on the river but we're probably doing a lot of calling.

Yes I agree but I wouldn't entirely discount them.

I can't possibly be the only one here who is astounded by the irony.

You can’t over-think in this game - just do what the situation requires. I get aces and I think that if I 4Bet here, with my tight image, nobody will call. But I 4bet anyway, get two callers & win a huge pot, I would never have gotten smooth calling.

Honestly, you will be surprised how well it works. Keep betting until villain gives you a reason to stop. So often they call along (with a bunch of hope) and then fold the river when they figure they must be beat. Sometimes I get there with nothing, representing nothing, and think the jig is up. Then I bet the river & they fold.

Running this same line occasionally when you miss everything is the way you quit worrying your betting is face-up. You are out-tricking yourself with your thinking. You don’t beat villain confusing him with your line, that just has him making unpredictable moves that may not be in your favor.

Everything is relative
Was playing bet bet bet against a pro and decided to bet small on the turn with top pair. He called and confused me - I understand raise or fold, but why call. So, this time when he checked the river to me, I checked behind and he had a set waiting to check-raise.

Pretty obvious you turned on me doc
But it’s not breaking my heart.

I don't turn on people, Hoss. I was just putting a spotlight on the opportunity for personal growth.