set on the flop, whale pushes the turn
Conversation with Gemini
SupremaPoker - $0.2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): 87.5 BB
SB: 162.75 BB (VPIP: 80.99, PFR: 9.86, 3Bet Preflop: 2.46, Hands: 287)
BB: 138.5 BB (VPIP: 65.31, PFR: 51.02, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 50)
UTG: 18.5 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
MP: 105.25 BB (VPIP: 35.56, PFR: 20.45, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 45)
CO: 25 BB (VPIP: 58.25, PFR: 0.97, 3Bet Preflop: 2.44, Hands: 104)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, CO posts penalty blind 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has 6♥ 6♦
UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, BB calls 2 BB
Flop: (13 BB, 4 players) 8♥ 6♣ 3♦
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets 1 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, SB calls 8 BB, fold, UTG calls 7 BB
Turn: (37 BB, 3 players) T♣
[color=red]SB bets 37 BB
SB a passive whale with vpip of around 80, he called me of in another hand with 2 pair and didnt raise in any street, every time he bet and showed his cards, he had a nutted hand.
do i have a fold here?
2 Replies
An 80/9 is likely never bluffing here so the question should shift to "Do I beat any value hands that play like this?"
The answer to that against someone who's playing nearly every hand is of course a resounding yes. He has all of the 2-pairs and also the set of 3's
You also have outs against the 97 (which I am guessing he wound up having because why else would you be posting this)
If you knew for certain that he never donked pot like this with 2-pair then yes, it probably would be a fold but you really don't know that.
If whale has a straight you have 10 outs on the river. You would need about 3.4:1 odds to make the call. You are getting 2:1 direct odds so you’d need villain to call about 51 bb otr if you hit to give implied odds. You are at least close to this since villain would likely call a shove (or shove himself) and if I did the math right you have 39.5 bb behind.
Since it’s almost a call even if you knew villain had the straight, it’s a pretty easy call if he takes this line with 33, 2 pairs, an overpair or anything else you beat.
