5/5/10 Foxwoods AA weird spot?

I guess shove, since you have AA and are pretty shallow. Not sure he plays a set that way. Maybe he could have 97s.

That's usually a combo draw of some sort trying to maximize FE. I overshove. He has a weirdly played set sometimes, but usually you are ahead, imo.

So with V3 limping I think we can eliminate TT-KK. We block the Ac which sucks - does he shove stuff like KQcc? If he shoves KQcc,KJcc, stuff like that it's a call given the amount of money in the pot, if he shoves 9x then its a snap call we should be ahead of a fair amount, and if doesn't shove bare clubs it's probably a fold.

PRE - raise bigger.

FLOP - check back or bet smaller, like $40-$50 at most.

We want calls from all their lower 1P holdings with a club. We don't really love getting x/r'd.

As played, it's pretty gross, but I don't think we should fold, so call.

call. spr is too low to fold

Strange hand:
Guy that is overfolding raises & get 3 callers?
Hero cBets, gets 2 callers - then villain jams into everyone. I don’t think he’s bluffing or betting A9.

Do you guys really think he’s shoving a combo draw into 3 people?

I think we’re beat, but I don’t think I can fold

Doesn't really change much equity wise - those hands all have like 45% equity vs us

It changes the heck out of EV. There is $460 in the pot before we react. If we ignore all else, and just focus on that, 55% of it represents $253 of EV. This gives us 4-ish combos that we are happy to see, EV wise, even though they have a ton of equity against us.

I'd thought it was close at first when I looked at it, giving V all 99/77/44 and all combo draws. If V has a set, we're toast ldo, but aren't they opening at least 99 from the LJ? Maybe 77 too?

Also, this player type will also x-shove combo draws, I agree. Both of the other Vs called the b40 cbet. Probably with something besides two unrelated overs. Every card in that "something" either pulls outs from shoving V's combodraw, or cuts down on shover's in-range set combos. Which bumps H's equity and pushes this to a definite call.

If you take the following range "99,77,97,44,9:cc" then add in those 4 or 5 hands you mentioned our equity goes from 32% to 33%. Not changing much at all - the big changes would be of course if he shoves random 9x, bare clubs, etc.

Yeah, but giving him all the sets is silly, as most V's want value with their sets, and 99 and 777 are often opened pre, instead of limp/called. Additionally, very little 97 in his limp/call range pre.

Lets say he has 3 combos of sets, as 9 are available, but we cut it down by 3 because of pre and again for his flop action. Let's also give him all the 97 suited combos, which may be a bit generous, but OK. Of course he doesn't have all the 9cXc combos. Let's give him all the Tc+ (9cTc-9cAc) combos and, of course, the examples I gave above. Note that these weren't in the original range you gave, though. These are examples of hands I said you were forgetting.

So given what you said above, the available 99,77,97,44 combos have 81% equity against us, but only represent 7 combos. Adding in the SF draws and the pair+FD combos I specifically mentioned takes him down to 69%, and adding in the pair+over+FD combos takes it down to 62%, even without adding the sometimes hands.

With $460 in the pot, assuming V2 folds, we need 34% equity to GII. We have 38%, so it's +EV by about $60. Those combo draws make the difference between a clear fold and a good call, even without the occasional bare 9s and FDs you mentioned.

We beat some value + semi bluffs, sorry he had a set.

Ugly, but gotta overshove with no reads, plus their likely reads on you. If his 97 holds up or his T8 gets there, call it an early night.

He does have 44 here a decent part of the time.

Are we not concerned with 2 players to act behind? Or is that irrelevant here?

ush don't know, one of the callers is stoned, the other one is a cipher who just cold called twice. We're 80bb (straddles) effective to start, the board is a paradise for raggy straight and flush draws and also for optimistic overpairs, few 2pr are possible....

Hard to say "this is always a set" even tho it will be a set a good portion of the time. But I abide by the low spr, shove, and get ready to rebuy.

All in. The nice 5hing about aces is we can simply make a higher set or backdoor flush when beat.

Wouldn't really worry about having the ace of clubs one way or the other. Yeah, he can't have nfd. But then you have one of his outs and a redraw vs other fds and the aforementioned bd vs sets or 2p.

Yeah, you are 13% against a set. We are only looking at 44 or maybe 77, and he may not play a set that way. A little concerning it is the limp caller, because at this stakes a limp/call is a small pp a lot. Think you are ahead of pot odds against his whole range.

Is the play to cbet this sizing? Seems like not a great board for the raiser. The cbet represents an overpair or set only.

I guess I don’t hate a fold, either, to be wishy washy. Unknown MAWG coldcalling 45 in the BB and then another 85 with two behind him and the Ac in your hand is concerning. Gotta go with your gut I guess.

5-5-10 game that plays like 1-2 ... not sure if a dream or a nightmare.

You say you've been card dead, so I assume you've been here a while and gone from 1,000 to 800 ... you should really have some reads on wtf everyone is doing. Esp. the LJ limping, how often is he open limping? Roughly how does he split his limp/raise range?

If you had ~160 at 1-2-4, the open is way way too small. Because you haven't opened for a while people will go into "Oh, I guess this guy definitely has something now ... so I've got great implied odds to call with any2". Can see that reasoning being the case here for everyone else in the hand.

Agree flop size is bad, but disagree about the shoving meaning it's not sets ... H's range has a lot of overpairs here. Likely AK/AQ/whatever isn't going to put much more money in anyway, if someone calls, unless H hits the 12% turn card.

On the upside if LJ was being "tricky" limping with QQ/JJ he might play it this way, hoping you've got AK/AQ and he's now significantly ahead (I see this a _lot_ at 1-2 and again this is playing like a 1-2 game).

Even though it's playing like 1-2 there's also a lot more chance people have noticed you've folded a lot, but it's hard to say if that means they are more or less likely to shove draws or T9 here.

Also when BB calls and LJ has wants it to be HU he might be more agressive -- again, at 1-2 players would rarely think about that but maybe here they are.

On the other side if LJ had a good draw, he has good relative position if he calls -- if he's thinking about that (though we know he can't have the NFD)

I think it's a bad spot, and at actual 1-2 I'd heavily lean fold because they are never bluffing enough ... but I'd hope it's more likely people play 65 on the flop this way at this game, and also more likely the players will be more aggressive in general and care less about the money.

I was very confused by all of the play lol. I think that is what lead me to my decision.

I had the 2 v’s to act after me. And the limp call is almost always a pp. and the check jam on a wet board is how I would play bottom set say.

Since I was so confused and didn’t have a read on the jamming villain. I erred on the side of conservative and reluctantly folded.

V1 called. And the runout was blanks.

V3 won the pot w Q9o he said my c bet was so small he had to call. Then decided to jam to get me off AK

Wtf? He didn’t beleive me when I said I had AA lol.

Ugh. Chalk it up to monsters under the bed

Lol thats live poker for you, people just show up with random **** all the time. I would not tell anyone i folded AA though , keep that to yourself.

Yeah I think there's a theme that some Vs didn't get the memo about smaller flop bets and read it as weakness like we're back in 2006 cbetting 2/3 to full pot...