How to Play this Combo Draw vs the Chip Leader?
Day 2 of a €250 live tournament. We are in the money - about 200 players remain from 7000.
Villain is one of the to
It's 7 BB. He really can't fold top pair. When you jam it's a success if you fold out something like pocket 8s with no spade that has a decent amount of equity, but I don't think you can expect an ace to fold. That doesn't mean there's anything wrong with jamming though. You're still flipping even with an ace.One note about your PIO sim... Your ranges are totally unrealistic. Y
I agree with most of what you said.
I'm in the BB vs a tighter player with the chip lead opening from UTG, and there's a juicy ladder available. I'm not 3bet-jamming as wide as you indicated, even if I should. I can call and take a flop andm, if I lose, pay my SB the next hand, and still have 6.5bbs for a full orbit with a €300 ladder coming. For me, that is more valuable than the small amount of EV given up by not jamming small pairs and suited broadways etc here.
It's not just small pocket pairs. The range you used included full frequencies of AK and pocket queens as preflop calls! I would think even if you're playing extremely tight you would be jamming stuff like AJs+, 88+, KQs, etc.
Even when AK and QQ are preflop calls at very low frequencies, they show up as full squares in that view of Piosolver.
I really don't get to jam that wide vs UTG chip leader.
Him folding a king would be huge
Yeah, I guess so, but I was still somewhat surprised he called so quickly. He's either a mile behind or slightly ahead. I thought perhaps he could fold his worse Ax hands facing a potsize raise, but perhaps not - the solver says he is meant to call, of course.
GG
He's rarely "a mile behind" - How often do you have two pair+? Any ace that has him outkicked enough that you can expect your kicker to play is probably a hand you jam preflop.
It also, again, doesn't matter. This is where having some basic heuristics for SPR and preflop stack sizes and what you're willing to stack off with helps. You kinda have to stack off any pair on this board at this depth (maybe not 6x no spade, especially given the UTG open). We're talking an SPR of 1.2 going to the flop-- any top pair is an automatic call to a jam.
Yeah, but he shouldn't. I mean, maybe he shouldn't always bet a king here, but any offsuit king he opens here should have a kicker high enough to have backup to call a jam with, if he bets it on the flop.
He's rarely "a mile behind" - How often do you have two pair+? Any ace that has him outkicked enough that you can expect your kicker to play is probably a hand you jam preflop.It also, again, doesn't matter. This is where having some basic heuristics for SPR and preflop stack sizes and what you're willing to stack off with helps. You kinda have to stack off any pair on this boa
According to PIO most Kx is meant to call his bet on the flop (rather than get it in) and a lot of the 6x actually folds to the flop bet, as the board is so good for UTG.
Agreed that he shouldn't fold any top pair - I was just a little surprised that he called so quickly when I'm going to jam all value hands on this board, like A6, 66, flushes etc.
Both are fine
It's not just small pocket pairs. The range you used included full frequencies of AK and pocket queens as preflop calls! I would think even if you're playing extremely tight you would be jamming stuff like AJs+, 88+, KQs, etc.
Even when AK and QQ are preflop calls at very low frequencies, they show up as full squares in that view of Piosolver. I really don't get to jam that wide
Preflop you should likely be jamming something similar to this:
..]
In this sim AK and QQ are pure jams pre. This is the same 50 bb UTG chip leader vs 8 bb in the BB, except this chart is in the money with 109 players remaining instead of 200 (I didn't have a preconstructed HRC pay chart with 200+ places and didn't want to plug the payout numbers all in manually just to run this one spot). Still it should be very close to your situation. The bottom left chart shows jams in purple and calls in green and the top right chart shows just the preflop jamming range.
Anyway I think it's likely fine just calling with the small pocket pairs instead of jamming pre, but IMO it's a pretty big error if you're not jamming preflop with stuff like the strongest Ax. In this sim AKo is giving up .3% table equity by calling pre instead of jamming. That doesn't sound like that much but it's actually a pretty big blunder.
The point I was making before is that you have to be careful when you're running these sims to get the parameters right or the results can be wildly different.
For example I was just looking at a spot where the board was good for the big blind and they had a pretty significant leading range.
When the BB checked the flop, at equilibrium the preflop raiser was betting more than 50% of the time. However that was assuming the big blind was betting themselves a lot of the time with their strong hands. When I node locked for the big blind to check range, the preflop raiser adjusted by checking back their entire range. So if you were playing against someone who never leads from the big blind it would be a big mistake to bet 50% of your range like the solver said you should.
Anyway I think you played the hand you asked about well.
At+8bb+you're+essentially+pot-committed+to+any+reasonable+flop+before+you+even+see+it,+so+QJs+with+a+combo+draw+on+AK6+is+a+mandatory+shove+and+a+happy+one.+The+quick+call+from+villain+is+also+completely+standard+since+any+Ax+has+to+call+getting+those+odds+even+knowing+they're+often+behind.+Played+a+similar+spot+at+a+EUR300+in+Prague+last+year+and+got+snap-called+by+A4o,+bricked+the+draw+and+busted,+but+the+shove+is+still+right+every+time.
At 8bb you're essentially pot-committed to any reasonable flop before you even see it, so QJs with a combo draw on AK6 is a mandatory shove and a happy one. The quick call from villain is also completely standard since any Ax has to call getting those odds even knowing they're often behind. Played a similar spot at a €300 in Prague last year and got snap-called by A4o, bricked the draw and busted, but the shove is still right every time.
[QUOTE=nath]8bb? Probably just get it in and pray to hit my 12 outs.[/QUOTE]12 outs is solid though, at worst you're flipping broadway and most likely ahead of his jam range. ICM is in your favor too - he can't play too tight but also can't stack off super light. At 8bb you're shove/fold anyway so might as well go now with decent equity.
Preflop you should likely be jamming something similar to this:..] In this sim AK and QQ are pure jams pre. This is the same 50 bb UTG chip leader vs 8 bb in the BB, except this chart is in the money with 109 players remaining instead of 200 (I didn't have a preconstructed HRC pay chart with 200+ places and didn't want to plug the payout numbers all in manually just to run this
Thanks for taking a look at this, I really appreciate it, and the results are interesting. Yes, I am jamming the best Ax 98% of the time.
Yes I get what you're saying with BB leads and how it affects villain strategy. But of course, this board is massively favourable for villain, so I'm checking 100% of hands.
