Good Bluff spot?

In game I read the repeat small bet as highly weighted to scared underpaid or weaker Kx. I didn’t think I’d get paid off to significant amount when flush completes or a one liner comes out. This turn is good for my range compared to UTG open range IMO.

If he jams on me I have to call ~$190 more to win ~$700 pot and I am thinking my flush completing, straight completing and 5 and 6 are live outs so I am getting direct odds to call against most of his range. [walking around with kids so I’ll check my math later]

If he calls I am essentially planning to jam all cards EXCEPT non-flush completing broadways

I am underbluffing in general at this level. Maybe I exploitatively only value xr here. But if I have bluffs I like turning my combo draws into xr. This is under bluffed in general and as V I feel a lot of pressure even with AK.

Looks fine to me.

I agree the small turn bet looks weak.

id make it smaller and then jam a lot of rivers. you dont want him folding yet.

How would you manipulate the SPR for the river in this spot? I feel like leaving more than a pot sized bet maximizes fold equity. But I also feel like absolute bet size of $190 for the river jam still gets decent fold equity since people don’t consider pot % when crossing a certain absolute # (I feel like anything over $100 in the $1/3 pool in my casino tends to scare a lot of people). I am certainly open to suggestions since this is a huge weakness in my game.

It's all about reads. However, our reasoning was that we are attacking the weaker part of his range. Qq maybe k9 etc.

It like to put in a healthy bluff now and fold those hands out. When called (barring tells) we probably guessed wrong here and are against big hands.

In that case my goal will to get paid off when we hit otr and to give up when we miss.

A key to winning in any gambling, including poker, is to recognize when you have a 60/40 situation, and to be on the 60 side. This is more of a coin flip. The villain may be a tight player that just folds when raised with TP. The villain also can be a calling station that can't give up TP. There are more calling stations than tight players at low stakes. Know that you'll have to fire another bullet on the river if the villain calls.

I like the semibluff.

Preflop is technically an easy fold HU versus a 5x UTG open. Even though 5x was standard, you have no need to get involved versus a strong UTG range OOP with this hand.

How would you shape your defending range here then? I am generally defending (3 bets included) ~15% OG hands all PP, AQo+, all suited broadways, all Axs and SC 65 and better. I like to have good board coverage since I feel like a lot of the population isn’t opening all the suited aces and low SC from UTG so I like to put pressure on flops T high and lower

I don't know why we should be defending. It isn't a blind and ante stealing game. You are not getting a good price to play HU OOP. This is an UTG raise. If villain is bad, you may want to call or 3! more.

I would play something like 88+, AJs+, KQs. Maybe 3! suited broadway sometimes. Not calling the UTG raise HU OOP with Axs or suited connectors. If you wanted to get crazy, you could sometimes 3! them, but calling seems like a losing play.

If you are playing to see a flop, you can call with whatever. If you are playing to make money, you don't want to call an UTG raise OOP HU light at all.

This is a function of it being 5x correct? Is my defending range more reasonable against a 3x open or would you suggest a similarly tight range as you ascribed above?

My 3b range is mostly QQ+, AQs+, A5s and if read tells me I can actually get folds some density of my weaker suited broadways and wheel aces.

It is partly that it is 5x. You aren't getting much of a discount and you are paying rake.

If he is opening UTG a 5 or 10% range, and you call OOP with 65s or A3s, you have a much inferior hand to his range of hands. Unless you have a big postflop skill advantage, the call loses money.

All great points I hadn’t considered. Also, after getting more time at the table after this hand he had an open limping range and limped a lot. So, to your point, 65s and my defending range is definitely torching in this situation. His actual opening range was probably closer to the 5%.

I don’t think I have much of a post flop edge in general…

You probably got him to fold AQ or 99-JJ with the semibluff.

In a tournament, there are maybe 2.2xBB raises with antes. Often the raise is partly to steal the blinds and antes. You are getting about 4-1 immediate pot odds, 4.5-1 if is it 2xBB. So you should usually defend the BB with anything sort of playable. For a 5xBB UTG open in a cash game, you shouldn't be calling lighter from the BB than the BTN.

Grunch:

PRE - seems fine to flat call. I wouldn't hate a 3B when action folds to us in the BB, if V was opening from late position or we had a read that he was opening too wide. Here, it just seems like a square call.

FLOP - I think we could x/r here, at some frequency. We block 55, and can credibly rep 55, 44, K5, K4, and 54. Conceivably we may have flat called pre with AK. Some low stakes players will do that.

It's also fine to float and see what he does on the turn.

TURN - the specific combo we have looks like a good x/r candidate, because of all the equity we picked up. But I think it would be better if the turn was the 3d instead of the 7d. We'll probably have more combos of 76s that flopped open ended than 43s that called pre and will continue drawing to the bottom end of a straight, or 98s that floated the flop with just a GSSD.

I don't hate the x/r here, when V chooses a very small bet size relative to the pot and his flop bet size. It looks weak. If he had a strong hand, I'd expect him to size up with his turn barrel.

If he calls the x/r, you're somewhat committed to jamming brick rivers, or check-calling a jam. I'd much rather improve to a straight, trips, or 2P instead of a flush, because he could be taking this line with a hand that picked up a higher flush draw.

That's the rub. We're actually ahead of all his AXdd combos, so we could be bluffing with the best hand. We might say we're check raising for value, not as a bluff, to charge his better draws.

If we make our flush on the river, I think it's actually a difficult spot, and I might check-fold if he jams.

I dunno. The x/r may be correct in theory, maybe at some frequency, but I wonder if we wouldn't be better off flat calling again, and evaluating on the river.

i was more concerned about the turn b/c you make more if he doesn't fold immediately. if you make it like $75 that keeps in all of his top pair hands you can bluff out on the river.

I fold preflop. Highly doubt flatting preflop OOP with 6 high to an UTG 5x raise with non-deep stacks in likely a rake ravaged game is profitable.

I guess I'm maybe ~ok with the flop check/call but things are already getting pretty dicey when the main reason to call is backdoors.

I'm cool with the turn play on this magic card which sets us up for a sizeable river shove UI that will often get the job done.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yea I think in retrospect and with more info later gained probably a borderline spot with 65s.

I know it is 2/3 pot sized but you’d fold middle pair on board with backdoor draws on the flop? It is hard for me not to peel once here.

As played, there is a decision on a missed river. You could shove the river as a bluff.

It is also possible that you were bluffing with the best hand and he was just cbetting and barrelling with ace high or maybe queen high.