The ole 742r flop

I like your flop cbet in part based on what you said. The turn will likely be an overcard and we will have to call a bet because we under repped. Then the river will be difficult as we may have to call again.

I cbet there in position in part because there is no flush draw (if there was and we had the suit I would cbet). And in part because there aren't a lot of hands that will c/r because we can have overpairs. The type of hands that would bluff c/r would be like A3/A5. I doubt A2/A4 would do that. And for the most part A3/A5 would just be calls. There are some BDFD with overcards and/or BDSD that would possibly bluff since we can have two overcards. There are some BDFD that have pairs and might consider bluffing and then bet again on the turn if they improve.

I think I fold here. The c/r sizing is very good and large. Its a spot where we block straight draws. Like 65/86. I also think its an underbluff situation. And there are still 2 streets to come. We do have 2 BDSD but we need a 5 and a 3 or 8 to get there. I just hate calling the flop and then seeing a 15bb turn bet...

Where I call is when the BB is a very aggro player or GTO Solver and c/r frequently on the flop. And has shown bluffs (or thrown them away).

The one thing I do differently is the cbet sizing. Mine would be like 1.5 bb's. I still would likely fold to a 4x c/r. But because the flop doesn't hit our raising range I always make it the same sizing which is <= the preflop raise size when HU.

I think this exact scenario is an example of why we prefer to check back here. At this stack size, getting check raised puts us in a miserable position. If we were shallower, like 20 bb effective or less, we could likely just stack off. If we were deeper, like 100 bb effective, we could call the check raise with a pair and BDSD and still have room to maneuver on future streets (likely trying to get to showdown and mostly folding to a turn barrel unless we turn something like an open ended straight draw).

If we're approaching this spot from a GTO perspective we probably shouldn't be folding this hand to a flop check raise as we'd likely be overfolding. We have so much unpaired junk on this board that 66 is fairly high up in our range. Also I actually think if anything this is an overbluffed spot by population. The board looks good for the BB and there are so many straight draws, BDFDs, BDSDs, etc that in game can all look like tempting bluff candidates. Obviously this is going to vary depending on stakes and the type of opponent you're up against though. I play a ton of these $300-$1000 buyin live events, and at least in my experience the dynamic has gotten way more aggressive in the last year or so.

The way I would approach this spot is that I would only bet flop if I have a clear read on the BB that will make my response to a check raise clear. Ie: They're a nit and if they check raise I fold, or they're a maniac and I call them down if they check raise. Without any reads I think it's better to check back.