AA facing a big flop raise

Double it to 100, because it always gets called when I do this. If you jam, sometimes you get that unwanted fold.

When you get that call, it should not be that hard to get the rest of that short stack. I would suppress the urge to smooth call, because you can’t count on villain putting money in for you and your description is sticky.

If villain has you cracked, there’s no clear way to find out. As I mentioned in another of your posts, you can’t feel entitled, but we’re playing for stacks this short.

But don’t pull a jungleman and throw your cards at the dealer if villain has 5c6c.

minraise flop and jam turn sounds good. you arent folding anyway, might as well make sure a worse hand calls.

if you folded thats horrible

Grunch:

PRE - Don't reduce your raise size when you have a big hand, as a reaction to them over-folding to your raises. The adjustment to make is to start raising more hands.

FLOP - with the Ah in our hand, I wouldn't mind checking back. If you want to c-bet, use a smaller size when the pot is multi-way. I might bet $10, not $15.

As played, it's hard to say what we should do, because your read gives conflicting signals. You saw him call down with weak hands, which suggests he has a strong hand when he x/r's. The time out for blackjack suggests he may be tilted and in a mood to push his luck by fast playing his good draws, and this is a draw heavy board.

If you call, he'll only have 1 PSB behind. I'd think we're doing well enough vs a range of 66, 55, 65s, draws, and over-played KX. Seems like the EV of calling and letting him continue to bet worse on the turn would be slightly higher than jamming, but I could see arguments for jamming now, to get max value from his draws, before he gives up and check-folds when we jam turn on a brick.

What the hell does a min-click accomplish here? He only started with $187. He's got $126 left. Do we think he's going to flat call another $50 and only leave himself $76 behind? That seems unlikely.

If he x/r-3B-jams, are we... folding? Calling?

I'd rather just jam now and pray he doesn't snap call with 66/55 or snap fold with KX. Seems like every other scenario we're up against 65 and praying for another ace or board pair, or we're up against a draw and praying to fade 1/4-1/2 the deck.

if you have to pray for something to happen it probably means you shouldnt have instigated a chain of events that make the event unlikely to happen.

the purpose of the min raise is to make sure that more money goes in when he has worse before a turn scare card comes.

Check raises at this low stakes are very strong imho. I could consider folding. High chances of being against a set, 2p or hopefully a flush draw.

Highly doubt that a Kx would x-r on the flop.

Good luck with your hymen surgery.

you call. duh. not sure why this is a thread. if you're not willing to GII with less than <100 bb with aces on non 4 straight, non 4 flush board, why are you playing poker

I think you misunderstood my point.

We're so shallow that a min-click wouldn't seem to accomplish anything. Are we folding if he jams? If so, we shouldn't be raising.

If we're just going with our hand, and we think he's just going with his, then let's just get it in now, and hope he's x/r'ing as a semi-bluff, or with worse value, not with a hand that has us crushed.

I wasn't advocating for a jam. I was advocating for a call or a jam. I think a min-click is the worst choice here. We're just making it easier for him to play perfectly if we do that.

This is so read-dependent.

The low stakes population would be under-bluffing here, and we should probably mostly fold. But I don't know if this is the guy or the spot to be making hero folds with AA.

I probably still fold. My reasoning is that we raised so small pre that we let V get to the flop with a very wide range. He could have easily smashed the flop with 2P+, and this is how I'd expect him to play it.

Also, it's not impossible he shows up with 43s for a turned straight. Again, this is how I'd expect him to play it, especially 43hh.

That said, I wouldn't criticize anyone for calling it off, when there are a ton of intuitive bluffs and worse value hands in his range. This is how I'd expect him to play all his combo draws and good KX.

I'd rather not have the Ah in our hand, FWIW, but I don't think it makes much difference. He could have KXhh here.

If we get bluffed, it sucks, but it's part of the game.

Are all sets available? Probably not KK
Are there any two pairs hands? Yes, 65s for sure and we shouldn't completely rule out 65o, K5s etc. AA has reasonable equity against these
Are there obvious draws? Yes - flush draws albeit we have the most significant blocker. 87s (and possible 87o). 43s makes a straight on the turn.
Can there be worse value? Yes, but does this passive player suddenly blast off with a King like this on the flop? The most obvious hand would be KXhh.

We're crushed by sets and 43s (by the turn), doing OK against flush draws and 87, not in hopeless shape against 2p but not doing great, and doing alright against KXhh.

It doesn't necessarily follow that by calling flop you're committed to calling turn even on a relative blank; you might expect KXhh to slow down sometimes for example.

Think this is pretty close tbh. Calling flop is fine.

This is a calldown for me, if not a flop shove. But I slightly prefer the call to keep in Kx getting frisky playing the blackjack inspired heater. The read portrays a passive player but in general this is someone who can overvalue a hand.
Also, would raise more preflop.

Results

Hero folded. Did you have a set? I asked V. V peels KcTc.

I really regretted not jamming the flop and felt pretty stupid.

But considering I was in a wheelchair with a hernia during the hand, the surgery today was successful, and I have a bottle of Oxycodone, I’m feeling pretty good now.

you are playing to not lose instead of playing to win.

Congrats on a successful surgery and good luck on your eventual return to the poker tables. May the poker gods bring you many AAs so you can hold em.

Glad to hear your surgery was successful, Andrew. Here's hoping for your speedy and full recovery.

As for the reveal - I don't think you should feel stupid. If you were able to show this hand to 100 decent regs, I'd bet opinions would be fairly split, and very few would be extremely confident.

V seriously over-played his hand. You had conflicting reads. You were starting out short. This would be a difficult decision for any thinking player. Even if your fold proved to be incorrect in this instance, you showed discipline in making it. That is a form of victory in itself, to the degree that repeat disciplined decisions accrue over time and add to our win rate.

Go easy on that Oxy.

Have to agree with this. I genuinely don't think this spot is close at all and it's just never a fold. I'm just not in the habit of folding overpairs to what seems to be a tilted fish.

Call flop, call turn. Just don't fold.

Speedy recovery Adonson and agreed with going easy on that Oxy.

In this hand, I sadly played to lose. When a community organizer asked me yesterday, “what keeps you up at night?” I said, “folding AA on a dry runout”

You should say, "Viagra", or "your mom".

Really is amazing I don't have more friends.

If hero is only going to call with kk villain should call pre blind, cr flop blind and shove turn blind.

Good luck to villain if he does that.