1/3 - x/r from aggro fish on river
1/3 - 9 handed
Villain on my very right is an aggro fish
cbets/barrels very thin(middle pair even in mwp). Limp/call super wide pre. Floats flops super wide, calls multiple streets w/bottom pair vs another aggro player for stacks on low wet 4card straight board ip. Bet sizings are weird, some very small bets on turn/rivers that didn't go to showdown. Some medium size turn barrels for very very thin value. It also seems like he bets alot when checked to even in mwp.
In a way he's bad/laggy but fishy as well.
HH
some limpers including V in mp
H opens to 20
Only V calls
Flop A73ss
V donks 55?????
H folds
V is down at least 500, topped off multiple times.
What's our plan vs such villain? Thick value only right? Bluffing is suicidal right??? Bluff catching also seems suicidal?
Hero might have nitty image if that matters to villain? We have gotten out of his way even in hu pots vs him.
Actual hand
Eff 500
Btn limps
V in sb limps
H in bb opens to 20 w/8♦8♥
Only V calls
HU pot 43
Flop A♦Q♣3♥
xx
Turn 8♠
V checks
H bets 20
V calls
Pot 83
Riv 9♠
V checks
H bets 70
V clicks it to 170?????
I am looking at the board I'm only losing to 99/TJ?
We fold? call? jam?
I don't think he's ever bluffing in such spot. Question is what is he doing it with for value??? A9? Q9? A3? Or even like 33? or only 99/TJ?
14 Replies
Raise has to be ruled out right , shouldn't really get called by worse
You've named potential worse value hands and the price is great , seems a trivial call ?
ALL-IN
The guy’s been losing
He’s probably not making the best decisions at the moment. You’ve put nearly no pressure on villain - no money in the pot, so he can’t expect you to be this strong - no money in the pot = no fear at low stakes.
Now when you shove, he may might level himself into calling with one of the many hands you beat. Sure, you could play it safe and just call, but folding would be terrible.
I like this situation
A very strong hidden hand against a guy flirting with tilt. I’m after his stack
Obviously, with this mindset, you have to accept that sometimes it will backfire
——
It’s weird to me that a lot of hands at 1/3 end up like this with very little money in the pot until the river - then people spaz out and win/lose a bundle.
I think call>raise>>>fold but could be convinced raise is better vs this player profile.
He can be check raising with worse for value like A9 and 98, though I assume A9 sometimes ISOs pre.
Grunch:
PRE - seems fine.
FLOP - seems fine. Wondering if we should be range-betting this board as the PFR. Probably not.
TURN - so...it doesn't look like V has a strong hand when he checks again. If our read is that he's aggro, I'd think he'd start a bluff with any sort of draw. When he checks, I'd think he has some sort of SDV, or he's just doesn't have anything going on at all and will fold to any size bet.
If we think he has SDV, and assume he'd raise pre with TT+ and a lot of AX, maybe even 99+, then we should usually have the best hand here, and I'd want to size our bet to get called by all his worse PP's.
Not really sure what size 77 would call. If we're only getting one street of value, I might want to size up a bit. Maybe bet $30, or even $40. But 1/2 pot doesn't seem terrible.
RIVER - how are you ranging V? What worse hands call a 7/8 pot bet?
I think I'd want to size down to around 1/2 pot again. Your 7/8 pot bet can't get called by many worse hands.
I wouldn't think most opponents would be bluffing when they x/r here. River x/r's are under-bluffed. Ace-high boards are under-bluffed.
99 and JT got there, though I think we can somewhat discount 99 as played. More likely he made some 2P on the river, A9 seeming more likely than Q9 or 93. JT was double-gutted on the turn, so it's a distinct possibility.
He also may have been slow-playing something on the flop and turn, like 2P or a set of 3's.
All that said, your description makes him sound like he may be tilted, so there could be some spazzing happening here.
I don't see how we fold our set here. The question is whether we raise or just call. I'd be very tempted to rip it in, if we think he's taking this line with a lot of hands we beat, and we're really only losing to JT or 99.
If we used a smaller bet size, this would be a much easier call. When we almost pot it, it's a closer decision.
The way this was played, I'd think he'd have to have some frequency of leading out on the river with JT or 99. We checked back flop and only bet 1/2 pot on the turn. I'd think he'd donk for a chunky size with 99 or JT, and if he x/r's, he might go bigger, especially when we bet so big. It's a dream spot for JT/99.
I also think he'd lead turn with a flopped 2P or a set. So, this mostly looks like A9 or some random spaz, with some odd over-plays of worse hands mixed in.
Call or jam. Don't fold.
Our read is they're extremely wide pre and post, and sticky if they've any piece. Plus bets a lot when checked to. I can see the merits of x-back on the flop then. But when they also check turn, they don't have a A, Q, 3, or a 8. They're therefore on a draw. What draws are possible on AQ38r? Just JT, though maybe also KJ, T9, or 54? Does V limp KJ vs open it in the SB?
(Ignore the Kx verbiage. I dunno why I thought river was a K. I don't think they've 99 though, and I can only see them maybe calling 1/2 pot with like 98 or maybe 87 if I squint. 98 they'll x-raise river with though.)
Ultimately, I'm not folding a set for 100 more to win a total pot of 423, but I'm definitely not sticking another 290 in. Really expecting to see JT here. This V isn't going to donk a gutter into the PFR on a AQx board, and probably isn't going to raise turn with their now double gutter, though I imagine they'll bluff at a brick-ish river.
It is weird they didn't donk big, when H looks to me like they made a turn stab and will now maybe check back river. Did you look like you wanted to bet river OP?
I see Pablito's point, and maybe in the heat of battle (and not knowing this will be a thread), I go for max value vs V 2P hands, but I don't see V calling enough here with stuff H beats.
I'm either/or preflop versus raising / just seeing a flop.
Also checking the flop against this guy.
Against this guy I'm bombing the turn and expecting any piece to call, no?
I'm probably just sigh calling the river. Nothing in the reads suggests he's check/raising big streets with mediocre hands. Think you could also make an argument for an extremely nitty fold, although I suppose there are enough overvalued two pear here (although you woulda thought we'd have heard from one pears by now, which is why this really looks like JT).
GcluelessNLnoobG
Spoiler
Tbh, I'm surprised a bit by all the responses here.
In game, my first train of thought was fold. Wtf is villain x/r for value on river besides TJ. I always thought river x/r was extremely polarized bluffs or nuts only.
Then I talked myself into calling because my hand is too strong and price is too good. I can fold all the other weaker hands I have here.
In game I puked call.
V shows ATo???? wtf??
After game I thought a bit more about the hand.
Our hand looks exactly like Ax/KK type hand when we check back flop and then bet turn. Occasionally we wake up w/AA but rare right?
Maybe villain was planning it all along against this range.
Maybe villain isn't as fishy as I thought?
It kind of made sense to extract max value from our range.
After seeing his hand, maybe against this guy specifically we should stick it in a lil lighter.
Also surprised at the responses between calling and shoving. No one was folding lol.
Spoiler
They are but not when you're facing a villain with that description who is clearly just clicking buttons, jokes on him though, I can click them harder.
He's clearly capable of being aggressive, last thing we're doing on this run out is fold. Now the debate between call/raise is an interesting one and so far everyone has made good points for either option.
Tbh I would probably bet flop and most turns with this hand. I'd bet the flop to fold out all those random overcard hands which he has a lot of, ie K9s, J9s, etc. I would bet the turn to get Qx and gutshots to fold. I'm not sure about the river, it would depend on the board run out, how much Ax he folds on the river and how much Qx sticks around to the river.
He should be isoing all the strong Ax preflop. So when he doesn't, he's in a really bad spot on this board. I think even a fish would recognize that and wouldn't want to commit stacks on this board if we size each street appropriately. That is, unless there's some history where we've been caught running huge bluffs before.
88 is also interesting because it blocks A8 which would be one of the hands he's forced to defend (if we have bluffs) based on the shape of his range.
As played, I think you have the best hand most of the time due to the size of the raise. Only making it 100 more with JT doesn't make much sense. I think it's pretty clear he has two pair, but will he stack off to another raise with two pair?
Idk, I guess that answer is to run an EV calcs comparing the % he has JT vs the % he stacks A9 or worse. I would guess that the latter % is higher, and thus we should raise. Not that I would necessarily find it in game.
Spoiler
A few thoughts:
1. You don't look all that strong when you check back the flop and stab 1/2 pot on the turn. They never see it when we have a set, which is what makes sets so profitable. When you don't look all that strong, many V's will frequently take aggro lines on the river.
2. When they have value, and the pot is small, especially when it's because the flop checked through and / or only a small bet went in on the turn, they donk the river. They can't help it. JT just isn't going to trap on this board anywhere near often enough for me to be convinced he always has JT. Likewise, if he had 99, which probably would fold turn at some frequency, he's going to bet the river. We're just not losing to much that x/r's here.
3. When they check flop, and check-call turn, and then check river, they mostly have SDV, and they're mostly planning to check-call when we use a bad-reg sizing of 1/2-3/4 pot. When we go much smaller or much bigger, we start to induce spaz-raises from hands that suddenly think they're best (when we bet small), or get angry that we didn't bet small enough that they could shrug-call (when we bet big).
4. The choice to call or jam rests on how often we think he calls a jam with worse (probably not often, when it looks like he's x/r'ing with SDV he's turning into a bluff), versus how often we think he takes an unexpected line with a hand that we actually lose to, like JT / 99 (also probably not that often). If we think he's never calling the jam, then we should just call. If we think he could take this line with JT/99 because whatever, we should just call. We have to think he's going to monkey-tilt call a jam with A9 or maybe Q9 to make jamming the best play.
5. If we think V is tilted, maybe he calls a big bet, and our big sizing is better than a small size. If we think he's likely to spaz-raise if we bet small, then we should bet small instead. If we're going to suddenly $hlt our britches when we bet big and he raises, and start thinking about folding an under-repped set vs a guy who's likely tilted, we need to self-assess the thought process we're using before we decide on a bet size, and REALLY think about not de-polarizing by betting big with non-nutted hands, at least until we gain more confidence in our reads and ranging of our opponents.
Spoiler
Also - Dango, once again, your in-game analysis and ranging of V indicates some leaks. You make good reads, but you fail to incorporate them when ranging V, and you tend to be MUBSy when facing aggression.
For example, you ask what he's raising for value on the river besides JT. As played, he could have other value hands, but the more important questions to ask would be - is he under- or over-bluffing, what would his bluffs be here, do we beat any worse value hands, did we give him rope, is he capable of raising with worse, either because he's over-valuing worse, or turning SDV into a bluff because he knows he's beat when we bet, especially big?
You labeled him an aggro fish. You've seen him limp/call super side, float wide, call multiple streets with weak hands, and over-stab when action checks to him.
Does that sound like a guy who's capable of being OOL on the river, the way this was played? It sure sounds like it to me. He sounds like a guy that will be over-bluffing, not under-bluffing, especially in lines where we've shown weakness on prior streets.
The aggro read, combined with the loose calls/floats would lead me to think he's getting to the river with A LOT of hands that need to bluff, either by donking (when they have no SDV), or x/r'ing (when they have enough SDV to win if you check back, and sometimes win if you bet small, but not enough to be good when you almost pot it).
I'm a little surprised at the reveal. I'd think he'd just check-call facing your big bet. I'd think he'd only turn SDV into a bluff if we bet small, which is why I suggested betting 1/2 pot again.
Call. Aggro fish is unlikely to call with anything worse than your hand here.
