Flopped Straight

Presumably button folded to the flop bet?

Limp from EP with QTs seems fine with a button straddle.

Flop question is whether to check or lead. This flop is likely to hit someone pretty hard in a limped pot - probably multiple people - so it's pretty unlikely that this will check around. As it is, you've got three people who have something and some of them probably have some sort of pair-plus-draw hand. Your task is to get as much of your stack in the middle before an action killing card comes. I'd make it at least 80, but I wouldn't squeak at larger

Preflop is fine.

I’m probably leading the flop for 10 or 15. AP, raise to 45. If whale will call, then sure bet 80.

You’d play higher stakes, 4bet light, win gobs of money, and tip the dealers well. You would stay at the Bellagio and take spa treatments before each session. Rich people can afford to improve their game in luxury.

Are we in the right seat here with the BTN straddle? I'd probably want to be behind the Whale more often but I realize that the meta-game may require us to sit tight lest we attract attention with a seat change and upset the Whale.

Preflop: with aggressive players, calling from the BB here probably isn't great in the long run. Prefer to raise or fold.

Flop: leading is "Face up" but it's not great to have this checked through. Our leads are all sets and straights. I think the higher variance but higher EV play is to xr and hope somebody has a FD they're willing to play getting the wrong price.

Looking to overbet pot and give them the wrong price to continue. 100. If Whale has JJ he probably will jam. I think this would give us the correct price to call off.

id lead flop small like 1/3 pot. i dont think thats face up, a lot of players will assume you have a draw that is setting their own price.

as played raise small, like 2.5x. keep in all the Tx hands, pair+straight draws, etc,

Having trouble with very inconsistent read of "pretty strong player" versus "I suspect he's a losing player".

I fold preflop but I'm a rock waiting for KK+, ldo.

So we're 5ways right? SPR is 16. I probably just lead out with a solid PSB+ of like $35 or something. There's a crapload of draws / worse made hands that will continue in one way or another. As played, I typically like giving poor 2:1 odds, which would mean a check/raise to $100. This would create a HU pot of $255 with a PSB+ shove for the turn if we wanted to.

ETA: Regarding preflop, in my pre Super Nit days this would also be an EP open/over limp for me with any small suited broadway. But then it dawned on me that's pretty much what everyone else in the game is also doing, so there's no reciprocality. Now of course there's already going to be lottsa spots where there is no reciprocality, but the more we play exactly the same as our opponents, the more no money exchanges hands. On my shorter stack of $200, there is no way a raise here is profitable OOP. On a deeper stack, you could maybe make an argument for it.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Not inconsistent at all
There are a lot of strong players that don’t win. By all appearances they look like they’re doing well, but leak just enough to hang around break even or slight loser.

I’m not tracking anyone, I just know it’s true. People lie about results to everyone, including themselves. Maybe need a different label - decent player maybe.

totally disagree that a big flop bet will get called here very often. you'll only get called by good jacks, overpairs and flush draws. thats a pretty limited range. you also block QJ and JT which lessens the call range further. some of you guys need to pay more attention to how often big bets get called on drawy flops - its not that often b/c most people understand these boards are dangerous and aren't going to peel light to big bets.

JT (pair plus draw)
T9 (pair plus draw)
T8 (pair plus draw
98 (two pair)
J9 (two pair)
AT (straight draw)
76 (straight draw)
T7 (straight)
99 (set)
88 (set)

All potentially fall in limping ranges and all will call a big bet if they don't bet/call a check-raise. It's a 5-way limped pot with a flop of J98 and we have the nuts, for goodness sake; this is the stuff dreams are made of

x/r for whatever you would size a semi-bluff combo draw at. Probably about a PSB, maybe a skoosh less.

$155 in the middle and ~$350 effective behind. I'd go a bit over $100 to make the river push easy. $110 or $120 should do it.

I don't like the flop raise sizing. It any of the Vs are any good at hand reading, they know that flop raise sizing wanted a call, and a raise of $35 into a pot of $85 offers really nice odds to draws.

AP, you got only the guy who doesn't care about money, so him calling that small raise doesn't narrow down his range much. The good news is that a bet that gives him bad odds to draw is unlikely to get him to fold much of his range at all. The bad news is that with V's range so poorly defined, we pretty much have to shove river for value even on scare cards, which gives him some nice turn IOs. That makes me want to size up more now. It also makes me want to kick myself for raising so small OTF. I go at least $125-135 for fat value and an easy river shove.

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Grunch:

PRE - I hate button straddles.

Not sure what to do with QTs in the BB. Raise, call, or fold all seem meh, but that can't be right.

I assume BTN checked his option and we're 5 ways to the flop?

FLOP - I think we could (should?) donk here, so multi-way, on such a connected board texture. I might pot it. Someone has to have a hand they like enough to call. Otherwise they all have bupkis and will just fold. May as well target the non-bupkis stuff with a bigger bet.

As played, you kinda have to raise now, which of course looks face up and nutted, which is why we should have donked. I'd probably make it at least $100, if not $115-$125. If you go much bigger you're probably just folding everything and taking it down now, which wouldn't be terrible but also isn't max EV.

My reasoning is that V should have a strong hand to lead into four opponents, especially on this board, and the next to act player who calls should have at least stong QX, which would weight the other player's range towards draws. Someone is going to be inelastic here, and we want to target those inelastic hands with a big raise.

So make it $100-$125, and if you get called, pray for a turn brick, and that you're not getting free-rolled by QTss or QTdd.

Hmmmm...

He likely checks back if we check. He likely folds if we bet big. By process of elimination I'd think we'd want to bet small. But then we're just giving him a price to call and play perfectly on the river. I don't love any of our choices here.

Our read is that he's rich and likely doesn't GAF about the money. Just pot it, and pray he gets sticky and doesn't suck out on us.

Then again, we only have $345 left. I might just rip it in here.

Really think we should have donked flop.

Result…

Hero jams turn, 350
This turns out to be a mistake I think and is my main question. Was this the wrong move?

Villain makes a bigger mistake I think.
He tank calls with AsKs, played so passively that I never saw it, then spikes the 2s and takes it down. Was this a mistake by villain?
He did hit top pair, maybe he had the outs.

I’m not interested in results don’t matter, making +EV plays & pat myself on the back. This hand sent me to the parking lot and I can’t win when out of action.

I guess I thought I was way ahead and ready to take down the dead money. Never thought I’d get called. I hate it when I do it to myself.

I would like lots of opinions and advice. Should I have bet less and folded when the flush came in? I acted too fast (usually a mistake) and never dreamed I could lose.

Did I play it ok and just get unlucky.
I don’t take that statement lightly, because I do everything I can to eliminate luck as a factor. I’m ready to own up to my mistakes. How could I played this hand better?

Sincere thanks to those who share
I don’t know what I don’t know

I didn't like the check-raise sizing because it made things awkward on the turn: either having to jam huge (maybe generating easy folding decisions for people with strong hands) or getting the money in over two streets when there are loads of action killing cards, and you might be forced into getting the last of your stack in on the river on a board pair or flush just because of the pot odds.

Quite surprising you only got one caller tbh.

King is a funny card because it looks like an action changer but actually doesn't change things all that much. It's probably not the card most people are looking for unless they have KT, K8ss and so on. Despite the awkwardness of the stack sizes due to CR sizing, I still prefer a jam now because I still expect a lot of calls. But if not, you would need a strict plan on what do do on the river on (1) a blank, (2) a board pair, (3) a flushing card.

The quoted bit is concerning though. Poker is a game of short term luck and long term skill. You have the nuts on the flop (and turn) but any hand you're up against will have decent equity to beat you. If you could see your opponent's cards, wouldn't you want this exact result on the turn? Anything else sounds like a major problem with either (1) bankroll or (2) mentality.

Was it a bad play from V? EP limp in a button straddle pot intending to LRR is OK (not so sure about an overlimp). His flop play seems OK. Calling the big overbet jam seems dubious but maybe you have Tx yourself or a flush draw sometimes, so it's probably fine.

I guess I meant I don’t think I played it fine
How could I play it better?
What else could I do?

Villain was never passing on the river. I don’t blame him (I like the guy) good for him

It’s just i have seen this play out before
Flop the nuts and get run down
Maybe I should jam the flop????

You are suffering form a bad case of results oriented thinking. Your goal is not to win the most pots, it is to win the most money. Your turn shove may have been a mistake, but if so it was due to how many hands fold, losing you value, not due to letting V win a bigger pot on when he sucks out.

The flop was a mistake, because you gave him immediate odds for his FD. The turn was a mistake because of how much of his range folds. Fortunately for you, he hit TP to go with his FD, so you got a call, even of this massive overbet. That's great news. You generated $280 in EV profit! Unfortunately, he hit his 20% shot, so you didn't realize it, but that's poker.

You are either not thinking about the game correctly, or you are severely underrolled, either actually or mentally. We all get that way sometimes when we are on a downswing, but if your thoughts that you are better off if your opponents don't call an overbet with 20% equity persist for more than an hour or two after taking a bad beat, then you need to take a break from the game.

General thoughts...

V may have some whale tendencies, but your read is that he's fairly solid, so we should be able to range him to some degree, which should inform our decisions.

V can have connected with this board in a lot of ways. It's really doubtful he's just leading out with air. At a minimum, he's going to have a decent pair or good draw.

I already said I'd have preferred to lead out on the flop. Even though it might look strong when multi-way, it's a limped pot, and we'll have some worse hands that want to bet out for protection. Leading out will generate less fold equity than a check raise.

Your x/r sizing was a mistake, IMO. I understand not wanting to blow everyone out of the water when we have the nuts, but there's been a 60% pot bet into four opponents and two calls. Someone has to have something here, and we know V is likely to get sticky for at least one street.

I'd think we could use a bigger size. At least $75 or $90. Because our hand is the nuts but not invulnerable, I'd want to make it even bigger.

It may sound too scary for our opponents, but we'll have so many 1P + draw combos and combo draws on this board that I think we can size up and still get at least one street of big value. It's also important to realize that even when we're face up and obviously nutted, they'll still have enough hands with enough equity to improve that they'll pay more to see one more card. They're not folding enough, full stop.

I initially said we could pot it on the turn, but then noticed the remaining stack depth, and said we could rip it in. I think that play is fine, when we arrive there the way we did.

I don't think your 2x jam was a mistake. Clearly not, because he called with worse. I think the mistakes were not leading out on the flop and not raising bigger. Those decisions led to the awkwardness of the turn decision, where no bet less than all in will let you get away from your hand on bad rivers, but will let your opponent get away when he misses. I think he folds a lot on the turn, and we leave a bunch of money on the table that we should have gotten on the flop.

Going by your self-descriptions, combined with your play style, I would bet that there's a segment of the player pool who will take notice, and be more willing to make some light calls on early streets, not just for the implied odds, but also the added joy of potentially stacking you. There's just something about crushing the crusty old bastard at the table that induces some warriors to gamble. The EV of tilting you, or sending you home and getting a fresh fish into your seat will get you more action than you likely realize.

Even if V folded to a bigger x/r, I think one or both of the other opponents would have called at least one street. It's possible, if not likely that the players behind him are targeting both of you. I'd bet a lot of hands in that game were going multi-way whenever the two of you were in there.

Yes, V made a mistake, I think. It's hard for you to be bluffing or betting worse for value on the turn. He'd have to think your range is too heavily weighted towards worse 1P, which would mostly be 1P + a draw, but it's unlikely you'd barrel river with those hands. If he thinks we also have a bunch of 2P, maybe a set of 8's, and some straights, he's drawing way too thin to call a 2x jam with one card to come.

Reading many of your posts, I notice you often seem to slow-play strong hands, while you will over-play some thin value, effectively turning SDV into a bluff when it isn't necessary, and you'll make some wild bluffs in spots that are head-scratching. I suspect that your image leads opponents to over-fold when you bluff, and also over-fold when you over-play thin value, which very likely leads you to think that you can't get paid with thick value unless you slow-play. It makes sense, if they tend to over-fold to you when you blast off.

The problem I see is that you're focusing on your own image and hands, rather than effectively ranging opponents based on your reads and their actions, and appropriately exploiting them. I've pointed this out to you before. You develop reads, but you don't range or exploit opponents based on them.

Our hand unblocks all the 2P, all the flush draws, bottom set, and a lot of 1P + a draw combos. This is a spot where they'll call too much, not fold too much. This specific V in particular is sticky, so we should know we can get more value from him, regardless of our image. If he's sticky, and the players behind him notice, they'll tend to be sticky when he's in a hand.

If I was in this hand as one of your other two opponents, I'd have a hard time folding a high equity hand on the flop, because my read of you would lead me to think you could be over-playing a middling hand. I wouldn't start over-folding unless and until I see you betting big on the turn.

Try to focus more of your thoughts on what your specific opponents are doing, not so much on your own hand vs the population.

Hope that helps.

Thanks doc, I’m not so crazy about those that think I have a problem. It’s more like they want me to have a problem. It’s rare when I lose. Some people are not very helpful.

I guess it startled me, because I expected to win and was surprised when I didn’t. I would do it again, but was wanting to exhaust the possibilities of a better way.

Sizing could have been better. I do focus on population based lines, and certainly could range better.

We all face this player type and I’m having trouble seeing a plan moving forward. When you don’t have enough chips to protect your hand, do you pot control?

Am I simply to say ‘that’s variance’ ?
Again, I see this happen - flop the nuts, get rundown by the river - is there nothing that can be done?

The facts are pretty clear that I was a favorite to win the hand, and if I did - I go on to another big day. This is not the focus of my questions

When you play blackjack and you have 13 and the dealer has a 6 and you stand and the dealer gets 17, you feel frustrated but do you play it differently next time? Of course not. Control what you can control. The dealer will take care of the rest. As Garick said you got the money in as a favourite so you didn't "lose" the hand. Although you lost the hand.

And if he folds, you left money on the table by not leading out or x/r'ing bigger on the flop.

You're being results oriented, rather than focusing on finding the highest EV play at each decision point.

Whether you see it or not, it's a leak.