1/2: TP+combo draw facing flop raise+call

This is one of those hands that I’m happy to go to war with heads-up but we have to be really careful multiway. So if I think that I can get the guy who raised small out of the pot, I will raise big. I’m honestly not sure I like calling better than folding since we likely have RIO when we improve.

Grunch:

PRE - as much as I generally hate open limping, I might do it here, at these stack depths. I'd hate getting 3B. I don't mind limp-calling a raise and seeing a flop with a higher SPR.

FLOP - hard to ask for a much better board. I think I'd just bet pot, not dink and dunk with less than 1/2 pot sizing. We only have a meh TP and a decent combo draw, but not to the nuts. We don't mind just taking the pot down here and now.

As played, the situation is already really weird and uncomfortable. Either opponent could have us beat, and there just aren't many ways our hand can significantly improve enough for us to feel great calling a big turn bet, which I'd think is almost always coming.

In this spot, I think the best case scenario is the turn is another 7, giving us trips, but making a boat possible enough to slow our opponents down, then catching a miracle ace on the river. It's an extremely narrow path to victory.

I couldn't fold yet, given the price we're getting. But I really don't like the situation I see developing. I'd probably just call, but I could see arguments for raising.

UTG1 only has $340 left behind, and there's $170 in the pot. If we're going to raise, I'd at least want to put him all in by making it $340. But at that point, we're fairly pot committed, so I might just jam here and now, to make sure we generate max fold equity, and see all five cards.

It might be a shove. You are about 60% against 2-pair or a flush draw and over card.

Yes, your second paragraph is exactly what I’m saying. I will happily get in against the whale heads-up and I don’t really care what he shows me. But the question is whether a raise will actually succeed at pushing out UTG1, who has already raised us.

Fold Pre-flop

As played, yes I’m raising.
The cold call doesn’t bother me from a whale, I want to pressure the bettor now - create doubt with the most equity. A turn brick cuts the equity in half.

Raise 150
I think at least one will fold and get you heads up. Even though it was a near family pot, there’s no reason to think someone else has a flush draw. If they do, you’ll likely both miss.

The key to me is the top pair made hand - these villains could be fumbling around with paint hoping to hit something.

Even though I would have folded pre-flop, now I’m willing to put it all in on the flop if I have to. I would rather not - but we have lots of equity.

If we get called, instead, I’m probably done putting in money unless we hit the turn. Still, we have lots of options with whatever happens next.

Preflop fold but ok I guess every once in a while you mix it up and raise. Just wouldn't make a habit of it, as the raises, whiffed flops, failed cbets and tricky oop spots can add up.
Does the smaller flop bet help or hurt your ability to sell that you have a big pair? Not sure if utg+1 is responding to a small cbet or genuinely has a set. Anyway 3b and shove turn can't be that wrong

Thanks for the responses all.

I just called.

Turn ($200): 9x
Checks around

River ($200): Jx
Checks around

SB shows K♦️3♦️
UTG1 shows 8♣️8♠️

We lose.

Exactly why you don’t call. You had 3 outs to win the pot, and 2 of them were dirty. The open question is whether 3betting would have knocked out the 88 and won you a big pot.

I love how if you can get 88 to fold your equity goes from 11.5% to like 64%.

And perhaps this player, in this position is going to fold often. I suspect it's the type of player who likes the big pot with a big hand (AA, KK, sets, NFD) but will play AK cautious until they have a lock. Here, they are wimp-raising to slow things down and "find out".

Now maybe if you go $150-200 they sniff something out and decide to peel with the pair+gutshot and then decide to call the turn shove bc the pots too big to fold. But I dunno this could be one of those "cursed luck" guys who limp calls AK and shows you every time it didn't work out.

Idk, I think I would be checking this flop a lot from upfront given that there's four other opponents and our showdown value is questionable and our draw is non-nutted. When we bet and it goes raise/call, it seems like the time to raise it up big and try and isolate vs the fish. We can't be sure our flush draw is good and a small raise + a cold call doesn't really scream "I have a set!" to me. I know that if we get it heads up vs the fish's range, we are massively printing. So I would trying to be shovel money into the pot.

Just re-read my earlier post and I'm pretty sure there was something I thought I said but clearly didn't, and it looks like I may have been multi-tabbing, looking at two threads at once, and thinking you had A7 rather than 87.

That, or I was day-drinking and forgot.

Whatever - what I meant to say but left out is that in such a multi-way pot there's a high likelihood you're up against an opponent with a better draw and someone else with more SDV.

You spike a diamond, you lose to a better flush. You spike an off-suit 5, you lose to 98. You spike another 7, you lose to 66 and 44. You get a brick run-out, you lose to better 1P. You're basically hoping to catch perfect - first a 7, then an 8 (not an ace), to cooler whoever has a second-best hand, and even if you did that here, you'd double up V with 88.

We kind of want to 3B the flop, to basically fold literally anything, so that we either get heads up with a draw against better SDV, or heads up with SDV against a better draw, and pray we either improve or our hand holds up. The worst case scenario is to be drawing virtually dead vs better draws and better value.

But either way, whatever folds to the 3B, we're never folding some parts of our opponents' ranges, so we get cooked when V has 66, 44, or we get it heads up with 88 and we don't improve, or K3dd gets there. We'd really love to fold everything and just take it down on the flop.

If we just open-limped pre (I know, yuck, but hear me out), we can represent all sorts of playable trash that might have smashed this board, and apply pressure to all the stuff we'd be trying to fold when we raise pre and bet-3B the flop.

Maybe 88 or K3dd calls flop, but it would be hard for those hands to hold on if we open limp pre, bet-3B flop, and bomb brick turns, which we could do - and risk less - when the pot would be smaller.

Or we could stop screwing around and open fold pre, which is only "too nitty" if you don't really understand the implications of being 200-400BB deep in a 1/2 game.

Open limp or open fold. Don't open raise 87s UTG this deep, because low-stakes V's are calling insanely wide IP.