QQ facing a 4bet
1/2. Rake/promo/tip is 6+3+2. Because everyone is limping, this hand is the first in five hours that anyone 4bet.
V (360) raised once with 33 OTB when all the other Vs at this table would just limp. He calls just a little too wide (25/14/2). He only 3bet twice over 100 hands, but well over half the hands on the table were limped.
Hero (covers) has a LAG image.
OTTH
Limp. V in LJ bets 15. HJ calls. Hero OTB raises to 60 with QQ. V 4bets to 160 with 200 behind. HJ folds. Hero?
15 Replies
What range does he do this with?
If it includes AJs+ AQo+ and 1010+ then I’d be fine playing for stacks with a small advantage. But it’s unlikely to be that wide in most games.
Against the predictable 4bet range of QQ+ and an occasional AKs, fold and curse your luck
Fold pretty easily, imo. The sizing wants a call, his range is uncapped, and even though you have a LAG image, the general rule is that they are not playing back at you until 100% proven otherwise. But most importantly: "this hand is the first in five hours that anyone 4bet."
If it includes AJs+ AQo+ and 1010+ then I'd be fine playing for stacks with a small advantage.
I would guess V possibly holding JJ is the threshold for the shove. I don't think V ever 4bets TT, maybe AQo if V really thought hero was FOS. Because of limited observation, it was impossible to gather any evidence of V's 4bet range, but I think an experienced player who has observed hero LAG will 4bet JJ here. Hero got called bluffing the river after a huge bet SB preflop bet with KQs. Hero was 3betting wider than everyone else. Most players with JJ are calling off hero's 3 bet.
40 QQ
60 QQ+, AKs, AK
47 QQ
53 JJ+, AKs, AKo
48 QQ
52 JJ+, AQs+, AKo
With all the stupid BS i'd see people willing to stack off with live I made a nearly universal rule to always get it aipf with QQ+, and sometimes JJ. Just too many times they were spazzing with a hand like 88, or trying to get fancy with JTs, or of course the venerable AKo. I feel it worked out ok.
I would guess V possibly holding JJ is the threshold for the shove. I don't think V ever 4bets TT, maybe AQo if V really thought hero was FOS. Because of limited observation, it was impossible to gather any evidence of V's 4bet range, but I think an experienced player who has observed hero LAG will 4bet JJ here. Hero got called bluffing the river after a huge bet SB preflop bet
If this is the range you are assigning him, then you can't really fold. I don't think it's a very realistic range for the average $1/$2 villain, but if you have 100 hands on villain (~3 hours at the table together) then I would trust your intuition on his range and get the money in.
If V is a good player, he will 4bet wider with the dead money caller in between, FWIW.
EDIT: You give him a 2% 3b percentage, which doesn't even include all of the hands you are putting into his 4b range, haha.
Fold pretty easily, imo. The sizing wants a call, his range is uncapped, and even though you have a LAG image, the general rule is that they are not playing back at you until 100% proven otherwise. But most importantly: "this hand is the first in five hours that anyone 4bet."
Yeah, snap fold imo. Cool for him if he’s spazzing.
Fold.
You have to with Bayesian priors here, and there's nothing in his hand history that would move him from th 80% group of 1/2 players who only 4-bet AA/KK.
Results
Hero shoved. V showed KK. Runout was 683KJ.
*grunch*
Against the typical low stakes population this is going to be a muck for me 95% of the time. If he decides to 4b shove you can include a lot more JJ and AK into their range but when they 4b leaving chips behind in this configuration it is rarely anything but KK and AA.
Easy fold.
I will always remember this hand the way an elephant learns from his attackers. I’ve thought about this hand so much, I actually lost sleep over it.
The table was competitive 10 am 1/2, with five break-even or winning players and three rotating whales. I love that everyone paid attention and talked about the hands. I actually moved from a table with a few huge whales because they had no idea what they were doing and took ten seconds for every action. But you have no room for a big error in a high rake game like this one.
I will always remember this hand the way an elephant learns from his attackers. I’ve thought about this hand so much, I actually lost sleep over it.
I think this is a significantly bigger mistake than stacking off with QQ preflop. If you go to the poker room to have fun, be challenged, and discuss strategy with like-minded characters, then it's fine, but if you go to make money, then choosing to play at a table of break-even and winning players over a table of whales is a massive error.
Every table in the poker room is its own ecosystem, and everyone is playing a less-than-zero-sum game. At a heavily raked low-stakes game, it may only be possible for 1 or 2 players to actually be +EV at any given time. Were you the best or second-best player in this game? If not, you were probably actively losing money in the long run by playing here.
It might be frustrating to play with people that don't pay attention and can't follow the game, but the vast majority of any of our win-rates will come from these players, who will make massive EV mistakes precisely BECAUSE they are not paying attention. Use the extra time to better discern what mistakes your opponents are making and how to exploit them.
Not discussed too much, but the sizing here is IMO a particular tell. Not just a 4-bet, but a 4-bet of slightly less than half Villain's stack. Honestly V showing up with KK here is pretty light - this play is usually just AA and nothing else. Villains who want to 4-bet AK or JJ or whatever in this spot will usually go for an all-in sizing so they don't have to play postflop with an underpair or Ace-high hand for a basically zero SPR (and they're much happier buying it preflop because fish absolutely hate losing with premium hands and are much more scared of it happening with anything other than AA).
