1-3 Turn Decision: All in or Fold?
Hello 2p2, been playing for a long time and have many years of live 1/3, 2/5, 5/10 and 100NL online with ok success but bad BRM. Really committed this year to doing it the right way as I rebuild and having good results in 2026 over 70k online hands of 100NL and 60 hours of live.
Morning AM session at 1/3 about 2 hours in the other day, been playing TAG/LAG and have solid image showing down top 10% hands and viewed as a touch aggressive by your typical AM crowd.
Villain in hand is well known older reg who plays a bit more on the aggressive side but well respected and solid. An hour earlier he lost a hand with AKss in a hand where he limp 3bet versus a crazy well known rec and he seems a little annoyed. I am on his direct left.
The Hand:
UTG +1 ($200) limps $3
HJ (~$375) limps $3
Hero (covers) raises to $20 with KcQc
Limpers call and we are off to flop
Pot: $60
Flop: KdJd4s
Checks to hero, we bet $25, UTG +1 folds, HJ calls
Pot: $110
Turn: KdJd4s4h
Villain checks, hero bets $70, Villain raises to $210 without much thought, leaving about $120 behind.
Hero?
Some type of 4d combo makes sense but something felt funny about the hand. All-in or fold? Not considering calling.
8 Replies
I can’t go on the funny feeling, but this doesn’t seem like the type to know the 4 is in his range and not yours, and try to bluff you off your hand claiming it. It’s a hecka move if he did that.
He could think you will put him on a 4, so it’s a good time to put on max pressure with his diamond draw. He could recognize that you’re a thinking player that will give the old guy credit and fold to his bluff.
I think all that makes good fantasy, but I would guess he’s got value. If he has value, no need to figure out what it is as it’s likely better than our mediocre hand. When the money goes in, one pair is usually not enough.
I think the logical play is to fold, but if you jam and he folds, you simply saw something I couldn’t see.
Well villain doesn't have KK/JJ/44.
So villain either has a draw or 4x w/ or w/o a draw.
I think 4x playing this way is ok but there's also a chance of it donking big on the turn?
Also if you were villain would you take this specific line w/4xdd?
I think it's ok to stack off here.
Once we bet turn when facing this raise, I think it's hard to lay down our hand when villain is repping so thin. Also when we have an aggro image, I think villain might spazz x/r a bit more.
Could have KJ and A4dd for value, possibly 54dd or the 1 combo of 44 but we can probs rule out KK, JJ, AK. Would V poke the bear with a combo draw, and would he go for it on the turn rather than the flop?
I don't see it...so on paper i give him credit this time and fold. But if you have some reads or HHs to share, maybe that's relevant.
Other Q, perhaps result oriented, is this a check back on the turn or flop?
Fold. Call flop, raise turn is usually a very nutted line. Of course occasionally he will show up with a draw or some nonsense, but not at a frequency you can profitably call at.
id check back turn vs. someone aggressive b/c you have a two street hand vs a weak Kx anyway and they might bluff or value own themselves on the river. in general the weakest 3 street hand here is AK.
as played fold, pot is too big for your hand strength. you bet big on the turn and he doesn't care, its not like he's trying to bluff you out. he has KJ, A4 a lot. maybe even K4s .
Grunch:
PRE - I might raise a tad bigger, but it seems fine.
FLOP - c-bet seems fine. Might go a tad smaller.
TURN - I don't like the 2/3 pot sizing. I think either 1/2 pot or less, or full pot or more, works better, depending on what we're trying to accomplish. I'd probably size up to full pot, to set up a 2/3 pot river jam.
As played, we should treat the raise as an all-in for $330. This looks a lot like KJ or better.
Turn x/r's tend to be under-bluffed. He did us a favor by letting us off the hook. I hate doing it, but I probably fold.
Spoiler
Hero Shoves, Villian calls and wins with 42cc. Not the combo of 4 i expected.
It stinks, but bad and tilting players will beat you with bad and highly memorable hands. But they will lose MANY hands to you that are completely forgettable. You'll win in the long run.
Lesson learned: the turn c/r is rarely a bluff and shouldn't be called unless you've got Intel that a bluff here is in his tool bag.