How to play middling top pair facing a 33% pot river donk on a wet card?
Live $1000 buy-in tournament. Four players remain (of about 50) and we are in the money.
PREFLOP
Folds to hero (27bbs) on
Regarding the turn lead and the IP player mixing folds with KK on the river, I am assuming both of those are due mainly to ICM effects.
Highly unlikely villain donk bets 1/3 pot on the river for value with worse than KK. So blocking the value hands becomes more important than the raw strength difference between Qx and KK. (I guess Qx also blocks two pair, but I don't really see
I understand blockers are relevant, but there's also an ICM risk premium that forces us to tighten up. KK with no heart is mixing here on the river vs a 1/3 pot bet in the ICM sim, so if you set up the exact same parameters but had the in position player disregard ICM, then KK with no heart would become a pure call. ICM forces the IP player to overfold. Of course in a chip EV spot the range construction would be completely different, so this wouldn't necessarily hold true. However if you node locked all other actions, including the SB river donking range, then reran the river decision for the IP player as a chip EV spot, then any previously mixed frequency calls would turn into pure calls.
Also, if the OOP player has a big range advantage with flushes they can start merging some Qx type hands into their small betting range. This might not be the case here BTN vs SB, but it's usually the case BTN vs BB. The big blind usually has more flush combos so they can also block bet with some of their weaker value hands. Anyway I'm starting to get into the weeds here.
I think the main takeaways for this hand should be that a medium stack on the final table has to play overall tighter and take pot control actions more when they're playing hands with a big stack.
Of course blockers are always relevant too.
Sorry, got the link wrong. This is the correct link:
That link is going to the same playlist as the last one. Maybe try clicking the share button from within the video you're trying to post, and copy the link that way?
That link is going to the same playlist as the last one. Maybe try clicking the share button from within the video you're trying to post, and copy the link that way
That link worked fine for me.
Sorry Telemakus. The second link worked fine. Disregard my other post. I clicked on it and saw the same playlist, and just assumed that was wrong. Next time I need to try tapping play first before I assume it's wrong. Haha.
as played i would turn my hand into a bluff and jam the river. but i dont like betting the turn with this one tbh. keep the pot small w this one
flop super mix x and bet. As played fold river tbh
I would fold preflop and let the big stack play with the BB. Check back the low connected flop. Check the turn and then call the river or usually bet if he checks. As played, have to call 1/3 pot on the river. Good enough of the time, even with ICM issues. Need to play more cautiously on connected board and with the big stack. I am not always into playing solver lines, but here they seem good.
Actually, river may be a fold. It looks like he hit something and is betting 1/3 pot after you bet 3/4 pot on the turn leaving you a little behind to get you to call. Not sure he floats and then makes a cheap bluff. Nasty situation, and badly played probably on every street before the river.
