Flopped nuts vs 5 Villains

Preflop is bad. Being OOP somewhat makes up for the discount. It is probably a fold in the BB to a straddle or the SB in a limped pots, but those are closer.

Not sure you can definitely put the callers on draws. Check is good with the intent to x/r, which you have to do, at least 300.

There are a lot of bad cards, flush, connected, or paired board. You may have to fold later on to some run outs and actions.

Not clear what your stack size is but they’re deep - means they have been winning - must be doing something right

Your fish play flopped the straight and lots of action - not sure what you mean by wild man but it makes me suggest betting at least 500

Just understand that the waste of $10 could turn into the loss of your stack if someone running well finds the clubs.

Sorry...I have $1500

x/r and shove blank turns. Check and often fold flush turns.

Kind of silly to think of it as preflop might cost you your stack. However, something like 87s is difficult enough to play multiway. This is kind of best case, but when you flop a straight it is going to be a connected board. If you make 2-pair, you lose to other 2-pairs and sets.

Ok, this was not advice
an observation - they have more than they started with lurkers
they are deep so they must be getting lucky Vern

I count 25 cards that potentially beat you on the turn, oop v three opponents who could anything.

Yeah, but you have no choice to try to build the pot. Then shove most rivers and hope you are still good and hold. Against 3 opponents, you can usually give up on club turns.

That's what I thought in the moment. 10 outs if someone has a set. 15 outs for OESD + FD.

But at least by my insta guess in the moment, 25 isn't right. It's both better and worse. Some of those boat outs are FD outs so they are being double counted. Some of the SD outs just tie with me. However, there are a few runner runner combos that give the Vs more outs, like if they have an overpair.

I still haven't figured out the exact number of cards I didn't want to see. I'm probably forgetting some combo.

You make it about 450 and shove every brick turn.

Curious if a case could be made for just jamming now.

We're going to look face up when we raise out of the BB. I'd think we're only getting called by flush draws.

If we make it $450 and anyone calls, the pot will be around $1100 and we'll have around $750 left. Would we be giving the flush draws too good a price to see the turn, and creating a RIO situation for ourselves?

I'm guessing the answer is raise flop and check-fold flushing turns. But I wonder if it's higher EV to try to get all the money in now.

My thinking is that much bigger than $450 and we're pot-conmiting ourselves, so while a jam often ends the hand here and now, we're either scooping when they call and brick, or just getting it in good if they happen to suck out.

I dunno. I don't want to be too fancy in this spot.

You might be right….

There are more than a few of various levels of experience that hit their hand and jam. I’ve seen it work. I’ve felt like it was similar to raising huge with aces and getting no value, but it’s different; people call more than expected to an early all-in.

I would go smaller than 450. You can still shove the turn. You might get more than one caller, in which case there will be more in the pot to shove over. I would rather get 2 callers. Yeah, usually give up if the flush hits on the turn.

Probably 400ish, as others have said with a view to jamming blank turns. Your decision is what to do on one of the many scare cards - but be prepared to check-fold.

I could say fold preflop, but next time you have a preflop decision with 85o the memory of flopping the nuts will be far more powerful than what some internet rando says

Preflop only loses about $6 in expectation. However, you are probably calling way too light in other situations. Even if a lot of 2/5 players play that way, it is a big leak.

Not grunched:

PRE - you didn't go to the casino to NOT gamble. Hard to fold any two with the price you were getting.

FLOP - did you consider donking?

I don't hate the check when the PFR is next to act. Even if he checks, someone is liable to bet. But it kinda sucks if it checks to the last opponent, that guy bets, and then we shut everyone else out with a check raise.

As played, I'd definitely raise. This deep, I'd want to make it large enough that it's painful for flush draws to call but not so big that we commit ourselves to calling the rest off on club turns.

The challenge is that when we're only starting $1500 effective, any reasonable raise size looks pot committing. We're going to have a PSB or less getting to the turn.

So I think I might just jam and live with the outcome.

Me too.

Oh you’ve come this far it’s a snap jam right out of the gate.

The reveal...

That was my thinking. The proper raise size is $400+ a bit more for being OOP. Anyone who calls that is probably pot committed vs the remainder of my stack so we're going to the river. I would have to fold to any flush or board pairing card OTT and dodge ~2 dz outs twice.

I jammed. All folds. V1 claimed (salty grain but his story makes sense) to have top2 suited but not matching the board.

Maybe I was playing too scared?

I think jamming is fine. You get a huge amount of equity denial from the folds because the board is so wet, and it's not like you can know exactly what draws you're facing.

Nah. Seems fine to me.

It's so multi-way that the number of permutations of how this could play out make it more likely that we'll end up questioning our decision based on whatever the result is.

We donk out and they all call. Then the turn brings in the flush or pairs the board. Now what? We raise small and check-fold on some turns. We jam and someone shows up with 85cc that's free rolling us, or calls with 98cc and gets there.

This time they all fold. Next time maybe we get stacked.

Poker. She's a cruel and fickle mistress.

I’m an idiot. The way to duh do it is count the cards you DO want to see. Three each aces kings queens jacks threes & twos. Forty unseen cards, 22 could beat hero ott with no redraw.

Put another way, having "the nuts" really isn't all that great on this board.

From the OP it could easily be something like V1 has 77 for top set, V2 has K9cc for the second NFD, V3 has 65s for pair+OESD. Against that lineup Hero has a bare plurality at ~36% equity and is probably doing ok literally flipping his hand face-up before shoving (although we'd still prefer to be called of course).

Hey Doc, getting back to my bet sizing thing from the other thread, this thread reminds of the following hand.

2-5, 4+2, nine handed, no pros, typical non-vegas/la regulars mix, no notable maniacs or droolers. Effective stack 1500ish.

Everyone limps to me in sb. I make a speech then toss in 3 grays with 74o, bb is never squeezing. My image is longtime reg, chatty nitty but capable of moves, super LAG when rushing OWM.

Flop 742r. I snap bet $100. Folds to loose but sane MAAM who pause calls, button solid very aggressive tricky young Euro who’s been unusually drinking heavily who tank calls.

Turn Jh for bdfd, I snap bet 200, co pause calls, button tank calls.

River 5o. I hesitate bet 200 (almost certainly a terrible play), co takes deep breath and jams, button drops head flashes A3hh folds, I fold faceup, co shows 86hh.

It’s been my experience over thirty years back to the old 2-5 4-10 spread limit games to not worry about EV—we’ll never play enough hands live to get near the long run—and just win pots with shaky leading hands or good hands with wet boards oop asap. 14-1 still didn’t justify my pf call, even with AT/KQo. Obviously I call with any pair and then should jam if I flop a set.

“Win a small pot, lose a big one…In no-limit hold’em position is everything.”