99 in the CO 4-way on a monochrome connected board
1/2. Rake/promo/tip to 60 is 6+3+2.
V1 (60) is a loose passive (VPIP/RFI/3bet is 30/8/3). V2 (200) is a maniac (30/18/6) who bluffs all streets and makes erratically large bets. V3 (200) is a loose passive (25/7/3). Hero (covers) has a TAG image.
V1 in UTG opens 10. V2 in HJ calls. Hero in CO with 99?
10 Replies
The stacks aren't big enough to raise. The short stack is likely to call any bet if he makes a pair, but that's not considering any reads you have on him.
I'm not set mining for less than 10x the bet, but I prefer it to be 15x. So I'm just going to limp and hope it doesn't get raised.
If there are frisky players behind that are likely to squeeze, I'm not going to call.
Call
Don’t want to stir up the maniac.
We are favorites over random hands even when high cards flop. Probably not getting better to fold at this point.
This is a good situation. We will be top pair on the flop 25% of the time and our opponents will miss the flop 68% of the time. It so far appears unlikely that someone has a bigger pocket pair that dominates us.
It would be better to be heads up with this hand, but re-opening the action could be a bigger mistake.
These stacks seem shallow enough that I don't mind the risks of a 3b. Utg will be close to all-in and might 4b the stub, and maniac can do whatever and you should be able to navigate a lot of boards (low, paired, one overcard) in a protected pot.
Call is also fine and obviously lower variance.
The promised monochrome board may be tricky 4 ways.
Not liking a short, LP UTG deciding to RFI instead of limping. I think we're a (~3:2 or even 2:1) dog here. Not folding nines, given everyone else in the hand with actual $$$, but I'm not isoing IP vs that range, and the blinds + BU need to be passive too.
Onto the next decision.
Hand continues
V1 in UTG opens 10. V2 in HJ calls. Hero in CO with black 99? Hero calls. SB calls. 4-way.
Flop (36): 5s6s7s
Checks to hero. Hero?
Black nines.
Neither the Maniac, nor the shorty, made a move at this wettest of the wet flops? K then.
I mean, we can just X and see if we catch either a 4th spade or 8x. H blocks 98, and seriously, you'd think it would've been bet anyway by someone.
I have H as roughly 30% vs V1 32% equity, and the other 2 are high teens. I think we can bet, and if V2 and V3 jump ship, we're 51/49 vs V1 then. (Which I wasn't expecting to see.)
Soooo, what size into 36, if H does bet? V1 has 50 back, so something below 25?
I'm going to assume you don't hold the gutter SFD or you would have shared that juicy fact.
Versus 3 Vs, I'm also assuming at least one of them has 2P, set, strong FD, **OR** an OESD. None of those are folding to a 30- 50% bet and I'm not bluffing bigger into all that. As a rule, I play >3 way hands fairly passively unless the flop smacks me upside the head.
So I check back and see what the turn brings.
A non flush 8 is ok, not great for OP. Flush cards terrible, over 9 not good. Paired board not good. 3's and 4's not good. So we want a 2 or a 9.
It's going to take a big bluff or incredible luck to win this hand. I'm not putting more money in without a non flush 9.
Without reading replies i’d 3bet to 60pf for starters.
Edit: AP I check the flop.
