QQ in the BB vs. tiny bet on an AK4 flop by HJ
1/2. Rake/promo/tip is 6+3+2 to 60.
V (covers) is the best or second-best player on the table (28/17/6). He has a bluffing range on all streets. He stays out of hands when beat postflop. His only leak is calling too wide preflop. Over four hours, he has open-limped a small pair and Q9s . V's game fits into the psychodynamics of his family's poker ecosystem. He has won around 400. V is playing with his wife, a terrible player. Does he justify losing by bluffing because he only has to play overall only better than his wife?
Hero (325) has a TAG image to V.
OTTH
V open limps HJ. BTN calls. SB calls. Hero in BB with QQ and no white chips raises to 20. Only V calls.
Flop (40): AK4
Hero checks. V bets 7. Hero?
14 Replies
I think the pre-flop size is good. I would probably cbet this board heads up against a limp-caller. If I checked, I would call $7.
Well not folding for $7. Call and see what happens.
If you want to get me to spaz play the hand like villain. I’m making it 37 targeting Kx and possibly making Ax fold with a turn bomb. He shouldn’t be very strong often given action so far.
If you want to get me to spaz play the hand like villain. I’m making it 37 targeting Kx and possibly making Ax fold with a turn bomb. He shouldn’t be very strong often given action so far.
Yes!
It’s not your hand, it’s your range and this board smashes it - cbet is mandatory
As played, check-raise this disrespectful bet
You could x/r now. He may just fold and the hand is over. This seems like the size he might take if he wants to dare you to tip your hand by raising.
But he may have enough of a hand to call, which puts us in an awkward spot on the turn. Are we going to continue betting, effectively turning QQ into a bluff? Are we going to barrel river if he calls again?
If we want to turn our hand into a bluff, I think we can generate more fold equity by flat calling the flop, then going for a check-raise on the turn. If the turn checks through, we can size up and lead river, or go for the check-raise again.
If we check raise now and he folds, or he folds to a turn barrel, he probably has a worse hand, not a better one. If he's bluffing, we should let him put in another bet before we drop the hammer.
If we flat call flop, check turn, and he bets big, we can decide what we want to do. If we think he's capable of barreling with a bluff, we could call again and play some 5th street chicken.
I dunno. I think we win more money, more often, by delaying our aggression until a later street. Let's just call and see where this goes.
Hand continues
V open limps HJ. BTN calls. SB calls. Hero in BB with QQ and no white chips raises to 20. Only V calls.
Flop (40): AK4r
Hero checks. V bets 7. Hero? Hero calls.
Turn (50): 5r
Hero checks??? V bets 9. Hero?
AP, I can see just keep calling for a small win or loss.
But I'm definitely in the cbet camp. Everyone in low stakes thinks a 3B is AK at a minimum. You can credibly rep that and get weak A's and K's to fold.
Everyone in low stakes thinks a 3B is AK at a minimum. You can credibly rep that and get weak A's and K's to fold.
I’ll remember this for next time.
Again, not gonna fold here for $9. I think this could be a worse one pair hand sometimes.
I would be pretty tempted to raise the turn and shove the river against these bet sizes. Really unusual line from Villain though, which seems a bit suspicious. Seeing the showdown here would be valuable if this is someone you play with on any sort of regular basis.
Hand continues
V open limps HJ. BTN calls. SB calls. Hero in BB with QQ and no white chips raises to 20. Only V calls.
Flop (40): AK4r
Hero checks. V bets 7. Hero? Hero calls.
Turn (50): 5r
Hero checks??? V bets 9. Hero?
I could see taking a two different lines here.
1 - Call again. Then check again on the river. If he bets small again, check-raise. If he sizes up and bets big, fold.
2 - Check-raise now. If he 3B's, fold. If he calls, check river, and expect to lose when he checks back. If he bets small, go for the double-check-raise. If he bets big, fold.
My thinking for each:
1. He never has AA, KK, or AK. Maybe occasionally he takes this line with 44 or A4. I think this is mostly going to be weak AX/KX type holdings that are gradually becoming more confident they're ahead, or lower PP's, or air.
Those AX/KX hands will keep thinking they're ahead up until we put in a big x/r on the river. The other hands will either barrel off and fold to the x/r, or get skittish and check back on the river.
2. Same ranging as above. Mostly the same reasoning as the above. The difference is that we probably make less money by generating more fold equity with a turn check-raise, but we lose more when he 3B's, or calls and checks back river.
The bottom line for me is that I don't think it makes sense to check-call three streets. Yeah, there may be some frequency of him turning worse 1P into a three-street bluff, and we can sometimes win when he does that, but I think we win way more often if we check-raise at some point.
Used to play against an OMC that would always take this tiny betting line with small pairs. Once I found this tell, I always knew where I was. This could be what’s happening here.
Info would be better with that cbet
As played, I see no reason to raise now on the turn. Take the cheap showdown and see the river.
You didn’t claim the overcards, even though they’re in your range, so it’s hard to tell what villain’s up to now. I really hate calling down in general, but it seems risky to try and get villain to fold an ace or king.
Last inflection point
V open limps HJ. BTN calls. SB calls. Hero in BB with QQ and no white chips raises to 20. Only V calls.
Flop (40): AK4r
Hero checks. V bets 7. Hero? Hero calls.
Turn (50): 5r
Hero checks. V bets 9. Hero? Hero calls
River (64): 7
Hero checks. V bets 15. Hero?
Results in 48 hours.
Just re-read the OP. Is the "playing with his wife" thing significant? Does that mean he's showing off, or playing not to lose?
You can call. I think we win sometimes, but probably not often. We're going to feel pretty stupid if he turns over JJ or a lower PP that might have gotten curious if we suddenly wake up and put in a check-raise on the river.
That's sort of what this feels like. Maybe not exactly JJ, but some low-middling PP that he didn't want to raise pre, and then decided to turn into a bluff when we check the AKXrb board from OOP as the PFR.
Stick in some money. Make it $45-$60. I don't even care if he snaps with AX or KX. Make him feel like a douche by saying you would have gone broke if he 4B pre.
if you're read is correct he never has AX here because he would have raised pre. seems like he is doing the fish thing of open limping a small pp. that hand isnt calling a raise so just call river.
if you're read is incorrect and he's open limping stuff like Axs you should have crd the turn. now that we're here you should probably just fold or CR river huge.
again depends on your read of his range. w/o that kind of becomes impossible to answer this question. the fact that you think he's semi decent and still bet 3 streets makes it less likely he is doign some dumb bluff with a low pp and more likely he has a weak ace that is probably never calling vs. aggression.
