Lunatic shoving all in blind UTG

As you implied, it is a problem having 4x what he is shoving for and having players behind. I would fold ATs, but it is somewhat close. Would go with at least AQ+/99+. BB can of course call about 50% of hands. You could probably go with ATs on the BTN. This is sort of similar to some tournament situations, hut without ICM, and can probably be worked out mathematically. I have some intuition as to about what the ranges should be from SNG experience. If you shove over top, you are in for your whole stack. If you call/fold, you are out $500 and you have pretty good odds to call.

Need a seat change but I guess no one is leaving anytime soon. I think we should treat the 500 as the big blind and thus ATs is a fine shove for 4bb.

BB should be calling with more than 50% if it folds around.

That is not correct. It is not a BB. If everyone folds, you do not get the $500. Your expected gain versus a random hand is much less than $500. You are 64% against a random hand, so your expected win is about $140 if everyone folds. So it is like shoving 14xBB with ATs, which is probably a borderline fold.

So given my position and stack size i should be playing pretty much standard ranges from UTG +2?

fyi, the player in the LJ was calling the shoves quite light all night and was a massive winner - probably fortunate that nobody woke up with a monster behind him but his calls must of appeared quite strong from mid position.

In a tournament, there is 2.5xBB with blinds and antes to pick up. Here you pick up 1/3 of the 500 if you isolate. 14x 2.5xBB would be 35xBB, which you clearly can't shove with ATs. Not sure exactly what your range is, but it might be tighter than the 99+/AQ+ I mentioned.

The guy who was calling light may have been up a lot, but he was probably playing really badly.

AQ+/99+ if we are being safe.

A9/66+ if we like variance.

How rolled are you for the game? if there are some other really bad players at the table with deepstacks, I dont mind getting it in with a blind opponent to continue getting deep with other bad players.

Calling AA, KK.
Shoving: TT+, AQo+

Pretty much agree with hitgins. Bottom should probably be aqs or ajs. The kicker is not so important, both against a very strong range calling us and a random hand. Potental flushes add more equity. Pps are strong against a random hand, but often dominated if you get called.

Interesting unbalanced flat calling range. You lose 500 if you call/fold, but gain at most 200 ev if you isolate. Depending on the table though, you cpild have call/folds.

The correct range may even be jj+/ak. Obvious way wider in late position.

You shouldn't be calling with hardly anything

ATs is 64.6% vs. any2.

AKo is 66.3% vs. any2.
AQs is 66.2% vs. any2.
99 is 72%
77 is 66.2%

I would prefer ATs vs. 77, esp. given the bad position. As SB said, don't just call.

Honestly think if you can't just go with ATs then you should leave the game. If you don't ship 99/AQs then leave the game immediately.

Yes if you gii, you expect to win $646 eithout blinds and rake, having put in $500, so an expected $140 or so ptofit if yoi isolate versus big expected losses if you call/fold or get called for your stack by jj+/ak.

Npt sure why leave thegame. Is tha y an emo t ional reacyion? Other jands play normally. If ypu are shovong 99+/aq+, you can sjove 1/20th of tje time.

If we call or shove with AT we are going to make better hands behind us fold.

ATs is much better than ATo here, not the same hand at all.

Definitely would make better hands fold. However, JJ+/AK is probably not folding. You are losing about $800 when you get called by that range versus a $140 win when you isolate. Getting TT/AJ/AQ to fold would be valuable, but they are not always folding. I don't think the iso gets through enough to be profitable.

Call/folding some to balance calling with AA/KK might be good. Unless you induce light shoves, you lose less losing $500 than your expected loss when getting called by a dominating hand.

pps might be good hands to shove with here. 99 is probably significantly better than AJs. pps play better against a random hand and also do better than a suited ace against a strong range which includes AK.

Welcome to my world - I see a lot of crazy play. My logic is that I mostly stay out of it, because it’s unnecessary variance (gambling).

Long ago, in Vegas and my brother in law was with us. He lost all his money, so I gave him a hundred. In a world of $5 limits, he could last awhile. I watched him go to roulette, put it all on black and lose.

Point is that I don’t need to gamble with idiots. I let the game come to me and take what it gives me. It’s a strangely bad feeling to get it in with AT and get stacked by 62. Getting aces cracked is not as bad as you know you were supposed to play aces.

Don’t get me wrong. I love it when these maniacs are in the game. Certainly beats playing with a bunch of nits. Other players tilt, make mistakes and opportunities are created.

I mean, it’s hilarious being in a game like this. Funny people to watch.

No you shouldn't. The reason is simple; if you actually have 4BB you lose 37.5% of your stack if you do not play a round, 75% if you do not play for two rounds. Here you lose under 1% of your stack by being picky so you are not in danger of being blinded to death.

That isn't the main reason. Here there is no SB and no ante. Also, you cannot steal the BB, only isolate. Similar issues come up in tournaments with calling a short stack shove in ep.

The discussion is whether calling or shoving ATs is profitable, not whether we can afford to fold and wait for a premium. We all get the second part.

If I'm to understand that V only does this once per orbit, when he's UTG, you can pretty much fold everything that isn't AA.

This situation can't last. Every time he does it, he has to get through 8 opponents. Someone could be calling him every time. Even if some of those players are calling too light, he'll go broke eventually.

Looked at another way - would you play a casino game if you knew the house had a 3% edge? The odds that one of our 8 opponents will pick up AA is 3.6%. AA is going to be around an 80% favorite (80% of 3.636363% is 2.909090%). So getting it in next to act with worse than AA would seem like we'd be effectively playing with a 3% disadvantage.

Why would you want to play any hands other than AA? Just getting it in with AA would seem to be the best exploit.

Also, don't table change. And I wouldn't worry about not being able to to seat change. He's going broke eventually. When he does, there will be more money on the table.

Doc, you are folding KK to a blind UTG shove? In what world?

The situation being short term makes us want to gamble more, not less. If we were in bb we should be calling with K4o and other trash that’s favorite over a random hand. Being in utg2 complicates matters a lot.

Doc, the part you forgot was all the EV we gain from shoving non-AA hands in the 96.4% of the time our opponents donÂ’t have AA. Yes, we lose considerably when we are up against AA, but that is counterbalanced by the fact that we gain considerably when we successfully isolate. To make the math simple assume we play for 500 when we iso and 2000 when we are called. If we have equity p when we iso against UTG, our opponents call with probability q and we have equity r when called, our EV is 500(2p-1)(1-q) + 2000q(2r-1). We can control p directly by choosing our ranges. We can only estimate q based on opponents ranges and r will depend on what our range and our opponents ranges are. But it isnÂ’t true that the overall EV will be negative simply because our opponents might have AA. ItÂ’s also not clear that making p as small as 1/221 (and maximizing r thereby) is the optimum for our EV.

If V was jamming dark every hand, from every position, I'd think we could play re-jam or fold with ranges that start insanely tight next to act in UTG1, and gradually get wider as our position improves and more players in front of us fold.

But if he's only jamming dark when he's UTG, I'd think we want to rejam AA and fold everything else from UTG1. Maybe some of our other opponents are going to make wider calls, but any of them who are capable of thinking logically should understand that our position forces us to re-jam with an extremely tight range.

Say we re-jam KK. Is someone fist-pumping to get it in with us when they have QQ? Does it even matter what position they're in?

When we open to 3BB-5BB, our opponents have implied odds to call with a reasonable range of speculative hands. When we re-jam for 400BB's, there are no implied odds, just direct odds. They have to think they're ahead of an insanely tight range, or think we're re-jamming light.

Playing anything worse than AA when we're UTG1 seems like we're giving our opponents a free-roll if they're not calling with enough hands that we dominate.

In any of our opponents' positions, I'd release everything that wasn't AA when UTG1 rejams, unless and until I see UTG1 has re-jammed light. And even then, we can't be sure the first light re-jam was "advertising", and the next one isn't KK+.

I'm not folding KK to a blind shove because I'm concerned about what he has. I'm just not VPIP'ing KK for 400BB's when we have 8 uncapped ranges to get through.

My basic assumption is that we're never getting called by worse. We're only getting called by better. And we'd be giving up $60 of EV (3% of $2k) every time.