Flopped nuts vs 5 Villains
Cardroom, 2/5, $1200 max buy, 8 handed. Rake is 6+2.
I'm in BB. UTG makes it $15 and has gotten 4 callers. I have 85o.
I don't like the flop shove for 6x pot or more depending on the villain. I don't see why we should be so afraid to see the turn. On the turn, you can shove for around pot.
Hey Doc, getting back to my bet sizing thing from the other thread, this thread reminds of the following hand. 2-5, 4+2, nine handed, no pros, typical non-vegas/la regulars mix, no notable maniacs or droolers. Effective stack 1500ish.Everyone limps to me in sb. I make a speech then toss in 3 grays with 74o, bb is never squeezing. My image is longtime reg, chatty nitty but capab
Cool.
Because he's facing three opponents OOP with no redraws and 55% of the turn cards beat him
Nothing scary about that. I mean what could go wrong?
/s
Does anyone think a better choice would be to just call the flop and AI on any safe turn? Sinc3 I act first, it doesn't help get any more money in the pot, but maybe it's safer?
Ok, this was not advice
an observation - they have more than they started with lurkers
they are deep so they must be getting lucky Vern
This is a bad observation then, IMO. Maybe you can watch them play for a bit and decide things, but just seeing chips in front of someone means very little. Even if you know they only bought in once, it doesn't mean a lot.
In fact without other reads I tend to assume someone who is building a stack up slowly is better than someone who has 2x the max buyin within an hour.
I don't like the flop shove for 6x pot or more depending on the villain. I don't see why we should be so afraid to see the turn. On the turn, you can shove for around pot.
Pot when it gets to H is 90+70+70+70 where H has to put in at least 70. We have ~1500, and raising pot would be 440. That's a weird definition of 6x.
Raising less than that only seems good if you could (and other people also think you could) raise a bunch of bluffs here. And given you apparently have all 16 combos. of 85 and 53, that would need to be a lot of bluffs.
Maybe it's worth raising less specifically with 85cc 53cc and Ac5c.
Sometimes I shove in spots like this and get all the folds and mildly wonder if I could get a bit more ... but when I make it 400 and everyone calls, it's so much worse to be lost and risking 1k on the turn maybe drawing dead half the time.
Pre lighting money on fire, flop raise to 210 at least, as we aren"t blocking anything.
Because he's facing three opponents OOP with no redraws and 55% of the turn cards beat him
Nothing scary about that. I mean what could go wrong?
/s
Does anyone think a better choice would be to just call the flop and AI on any safe turn? Sinc3 I act first, it doesn't help get any more money in the pot, but maybe it's safer?
In this very specific case it might be, but a safe spade isn’t perfect, and even a total blank could add 2P to someone’s weird club draw.
Check raise or even check jam is fine, but we at least have to consider check call flop and check jam turn when equities shift.
*grunch*
Fold Pre, this and 885/558 are the only flops we like. Even if we flop 88x or 55x, against this many players we have reverse implied odds.
Our flatting range here should be sooted aces and pocket pairs and some higher sooted connecters. lower sooted connectors risk getting overflushed.
As Played:
We have the nuts, why scare everyone out of town? just raise to $400 and play poker on the turn.
If you are check jamming you probably shouldn't be playing deep stack poker.
*grunch*Fold Pre, this and 885/558 are the only flops we like. Even if we flop 88x or 55x, against this many players we have reverse implied odds. Our flatting range here should be sooted aces and pocket pairs and some higher sooted connecters. lower sooted connectors risk getting overflushed.As Played:We have the nuts, why scare everyone out of town? just raise to $400 and pla
He made a horrible pf call and flopped the weakest possible nuts. He’s facing three loose opponents OOP with no redraws and 55% of the turn cards beat him outright, some others give them extra outs, there’s 60 bb in the pot, what poker is left to play?
We have the nuts, why scare everyone out of town just raise to $400 and play poker on the turn.
If you are check jamming you probably shouldn't be playing deep stack poker.
I put the hand into the odds calculator and gave V1 the hand he claimed, 67s, and felt I had to give non nut draws to the others, so V2 got broadway cards and a FD, and V3 got an T8 for a double gutted SD. That gives me a 27% chance to win.
If gave slightly worse hands, I could get up to about 35% to win. Best hope would be that two V's were on a FD. That gives me 45%
I agree with everyone that I should never have played the hand.
But a $400+ raise seems like the worst of 4 choices between fold, call, and AI.
shoving all the $$ in on the flop is just terrible fear based poker.
You raise it up on the flop to the ~400ish range and allow your opponents to continue with worst hands and then commit the rest of their $ depending on the turn card. Not everyone is going to continue to see the turn as well.
What is your plan follow up plan? I bet $400 and get 2 callers is my assumption because the guy with top 2 was calling and any FD is getting too good of a price to fold?
Non obvious scare card turns: AI I assume.
Scare card turns: check/ fold? Bet $600 to set the price? Fold to a raise?
V2 is very bluffy at any sign of weakness.
it depends on what the turn is and what actions take place against which villains.
If i end up against a bluffy villian heads up and im OOP and a safe turn rolls off, i may feign weakness with a check and give them rope.
