valuetown or bust
1-3nl 8 handed
V UTG MABG loose passive. He raised once pre. showed pocket Jacks. All other hands he limped normally showing marginal holdings. H has raised many times, V normally comes along. V is on a heater. covers H.
pre
V limps
H UTG+1 $430 JJ raises $20
folds to V who calls
flop ($38 after rake) 4 7 7r
V checks
H $20
V calls
turn ($76) 7
V checks
H $35
V calls
river ($146) 2
V checks
H?
14 Replies
Sorry your boat lost to quads.
In all seriousness, just bet again. Any pair is a boat, so it'll be harder for him to fold when you could just have AK.
The fact that he raises JJ+ is useful here. Yes I would bet again expecting most pairs to call. What is V stack size? You may still be deep enough to bet-fold.
The fact that he raises JJ+ is useful here. Yes I would bet again expecting most pairs to call. What is V stack size You may still be deep enough to bet-fold.
I hadn't thought about the history of him raising JJ+. I was just thinking about how often he has 7x vs how often he has some other PP, or even how often he hero calls with ace-high thinking he's "keeping us honest" by not folding a potential chop.
It's nice to know he probably never has QQ+. But logically, fewer over-pairs would seem to mean he has proportionally more 7x in his range.
“What is Vs stack size?”
Idk. I had about $350 left. V had me covered.
I'd bet 100 and assume the Zeebo Theorem still applies. If he has quads, nice hand sir.
Why are we betting so small? Seems like a sin not to get stacks in vs 88-TT here and even 55-66 might look us up. I mean, yeah, sometimes were running into QQ because V never learned to 3-bet and for some reason didn't bet river, but whatever.
I don't hate the small bet OTF to get some overs to float, but make the turn $100, jam river, find out if your karma with the poker gods is good today.
AP, jam. 88-TT might even pay off 2x pot. If V turned over 88, I'm not jamming as a bluff.
H bets $100.
V raises $205
H calls hoping V has pocket eights
V shows a seven for the win.
I'm starting to think we tend to ignore obvious red flags in favor of taking actions we convince ourselves are +EV long term, because we come to fear making a bad play or being MUBSy more than we fear losing money. We actually try to become indifferent to the financial loss in our pursuit of always making the "best" decisions.
We raised pre, c-bet flop, and barreled turn. We're targeting all his worse PP's that limp-called pre.
But assuming he releases 66 and worse, and open-raises TT+, we're only targeting 12 combos of 99/88. And V would have to be a complete idiot to not understand that we could easily have him beat.
Once he calls turn, we should be concerned, and consider checking back on the river. Yeah, he might be a complete idiot, but the big flashing sign is telling us he has a 7.
The bet is ok maybe a bit big, but definitely folding after facing the raise.
I probably bet something like 50 or less
But assuming he releases 66 and worse, and open-raises TT+, we're only targeting 12 combos of 99/88. And V would have to be a complete idiot to not understand that we could easily have him beat.
If V is folding 66 to small bets, then you're playing way too nitty. It's 2/3rds pot. If I thought I could bluff someone off a boat for 2/3rds pot on the river, their life is going to be pretty miserable until they are broke or have the good sense to cash out.
Once he calls turn, we should be concerned, and consider checking back on the river. Yeah, he might be a complete idiot, but the big flashing sign is telling us he has a 7.
Seriously? On the turn we are being called by and 4x, 55, 66, 88, 99, TT. We bet half pot. We might even get called by AK/AQ that floated flop. The guy is calling OOP $20 preflop with 7x, he is going to float a $35 bet pretty wide if he has interaction with the board or a draw to the near nuts, and yes, this kind of player is going to call you down with a weak boat.
88-TT are calling a jam here, 55/66, and 4x might if our image is good. You run into quads, oh well. It happens. AP, I can get behind maybe folding river if we conclude that V never thinks he's best with TT, but I'd have already jammed so I'm already reloading. If V has 7x, he also has 4x and all the pps.
We are going to run into quads sometimes. We don't make up for that by being nitty to lose the least when we're against quads, we make up for that by getting maximum value when V only has a boat, which will be far more frequently than when he has quads. There are three 4s in the deck and only one 7 and he's probably playing a similar number of 4x as he is 7x.
I think Yamihere may have me convinced about going hard on turn and river. Conditions are pretty much ideal (loose-passive who probably opens JJ+) and in that friendly environment we are almost always winning (I'm counting about 8 combinations of 7x and that may be generous) while there are an awful lot of paired hands can pay off. You can probably get a crying call from small pairs even to some pretty hefty sizing.
Yeah, I stand by what I said. It's optimistic to play as if we're nutted when we're not. It speaks to our own arrogance when we expect our opponents to pay us off with a range that's probably 10x what we would have if we were to pay off in their spot.
