77 vs blind hand
1/3 NLHE 9 handed
Room is quiet for some reason on Thursday, two games and both are pretty nitty. V just sat down and knows me and a few others.
V - Lebanese 50's man that likes to think of himself as a 'big action' player when really he's just an ATM. Somewhere between a whale and a loose passive with spazz tendencies. But default mode is passive with no discretion on size. Very hard to make him fold. VPIP about 95% and mostly always playing passive but he can sometimes take a big stab with a bluff. Never over multiple streets. Sizes all over the place. The kind of guy that just randomly makes it 50$ pre with 22 and then shuts down post (so not a maniac), have seen him slowplay strong non-nutted hands like TT or JJ and he sometimes tries to trap me. Hates me and likes to think he's "getting back at me" or that we have some kind of ongoing contest to see whose better lol. First hand dealt in. 500$. BTN.
HH w/ V: A thousand limps in straddled (6$) hand, I make it 60 OTB with AK, V limp-calls in the field. J-5-3-2-4 checks to the river where V leads for pot OOP, I snap and lose to 67o.
---- H covers V's 500 from BB ----
V is still putting down his stuff as he is dealt in and greeted to seat 9, folds around and V opens 10 without looking at his cards (I see 100% that he didn't look, he does this sometimes), SB folds, we look down at 7♠ 7♣ and make it 65, V snap calls without looking...
Flop 130 - Q♠ 9♣ 9♥
H cbets 50, V calls blind
Turn 230 - 8♦
H barrels 75, V calls blind
River 380 (310 back) - A♠
H...? He'll sometimes look at his hand, like if I shove here he'll likely look at his hand, if I check he may look, it's hard to say when he'll look.
15 Replies
This is a basic equity calculator exercise. Run the numbers.
Unless you think he'll call blind, I see no reason to bet here. Is he really going to fold an A, Q, or 9 after calling blind three times?
I don’t think you’re much better than a flip (53%) in this situation, without fold equity, so I wouldn’t go crazy. If you don’t bet, what’s your plan if villain bets?
Don’t like the 3bet pre OOP
When you 3bet a small pair it’s with intention to bluff often and you can’t do that OOP. I would have just called. It looks more like you hit something when you start your aggression on the flop.
I think the turn was a mistake
This was a time to either check or bet bigger to set up a river jam. If you check, he’s going to check back or look at his cards. If you take the aggressive route, you’re trying to convince villain that he’s an idiot for calling down.
As played, have to remember that villain doesn’t know your hand and aces and queens are in your range. Bet 100 - another barrel looks strong, looks like value more than a shove, and probably gets 8x to fold. The story stays consistent.
Don’t feel entitled as you will lose this grudge match often. Don’t tilt
But if you win, I’d have to get sarcastic ‘you can’t beat me looking, so I guess it was worth a try’ - f this guy!
What’s your equity vs V on the river? What’s V going to do if you bet? What’s V going to do if you check?
Run the numbers, learn something for a change. This is not subjective or read dependent, it’s a simple math exercise.
I don't think numbers have anything to do with it just a matter of if he'll look at his cards. If he would call any river bet without looking then we should jam, if he looks and only calls with better obviously we should check. I'm assuming he's going to look either way so checking is the way to go. Also if it's common for him to call multiple streets here without looking we should be betting bigger.
Why did you bet the turn so small? Guessing you were trying to preserve the ability to bet-fold if V looked at his cards and jammed, but I would have much rather checked or bet very large, I think.
The ace is a horrible card here. If you bet, you cannot get called by a worse hand and are basically hoping he (somehow) folds something better. I would check and hope he checks back. If he looks at his hand and bets, try your best to get a read. Not a great spot OOP, which is why I would rather bomb turn (maybe jam) or keep the pot small.
Is 77 really a good candidate to do any of this with? The 3b, the barrels. I understand we're 65% vs a range that's ATC pre but post we're basically flipping and I struggle to understand what betting achieves.
The numbers: vs a completely random hand we have about 53% equity. If he were going to call a jam without looking, we have +ev, but we know that's prob not the case.
I also don't see betting as a bluff being a good move, so that leaves checking the river as our likely best option.
If I had to go with the hand anywhere it would be the first two streets, but even there it's tough to get enough of your stack in to make the turn and river trivial stack offs
Obvious check is obvious. Calling a river shove.
Check call river.
Result: I check river, V shoves blind, I call. He looks, shows a 3♠ and I'm good
