5-10-20 cold 4bet pot vs pro, river decision

I think villain is only folding Ax at best.
His AA/QQ type hands never folding unless you jam.
Not sure if jam is credible at all, I guess it sort of makes sense if we had KK/TT?

So it seems it's a bit risky to bluff this river.

I wonder if you guys have the same hand!

I don’t play close to this high so I trust your call of the 4bet. Checking the flop seems standard. Time to bluff was the turn imo. I doubt he folds an ace in the river, but there’s probably a perfect amount that would make him think about it. 780?

i wouldn't bluff. i think if he has an ace in his hand he has 2 of them or i guess a ten as well. i think he just most likely got jj or qq or maybe mega trap though this doesnt really seem like the board for it. i dont think you rep very much at all and its a board he should know he can bet his range if he wants to so i think you see very little AJ or a5. pre i think is heavily weighted / potentially pure weighted to just fold depending how much work you have done in 4b pots (equilibrium its mix leaning fold but you are very very likely to under realize here either because he's too tight or you dunno what to do in shallow spr situations)

river as you. turn is basically non existent betting for you which is usually the case when they are supposed to range bet but don't. in practice you can probably find a max exploit line vs people because they are going to check like 4 combos or something in these spots and they're always going to respond predictably in the sense of either you must have it or you know they don't have it and are trying to bluff them off. people that think thoeretically (i have to defend 1-alpha mdf gto i want to make submersible proud blah blah) won't check the range bet spots so i believe the response will always be binary, though that will vary between players.

A bluff looks like what it is, a counterfeited pp; He probably calls with ace high. Also, he often has a higher pp than yours, usually without a diamond. The 4! and the checks on the flop and turn make it look like he has showdown value. Maybe he has AA or QQ and was afraid of getting checkraised.

We’re likely up against QQ or JJ, maybe an AT bluff that now has a boat. Don’t think AQ or AJ take this line but that probably snaps off a 2/3 pot bet too.

I would surrender but if we’re gonna bluff we need to go 1.5x or even more. Not sure the risk reward is there because he always has a bluff catcher and we have plenty of air.

I don't play this high at casinos, only sometimes at home games against other Joes, but I'm not loving the preflop action. I have no interest in getting oop in a low SPR situation against a pro with a coinflip hand like 99 unless I have many hours with the V and have a strong sense that he could be getting out of line from the straddle.

So I'm either folding or jamming preflop. But that's me and I'm just not good enough to navigate these situations post-flop oop. I would rather jam and run it twice than call here.

AP: we never got a logical spot to bluff here except perhaps the turn, where we could credibly rep TT or something like AdJd or AdQd that was trying to trap. The river was a bad card for us because it reduced our TT combos and didn't bring the flush. V has more AK. We rep very thin and would have to jam just to get him to fold stuff like JJ.

I'm inclined to give up now because I cannot see what he can fold besides JJ. This was always a tough spot and the runout was bad too. It's easy to be critical from the computer here so I apologize.

It's bizarre they checked the flop. There isn't a better example of a trivial range bet in all of poker. Probably some face up mid showdown value hand JJ-QQ that's gonna call you unless maybe if you go huge. Our hand doesn't have great bluffing properties either, blocking potential 99

The flop is 2 broadway cards and a 3-flush. That seems very wet and not a range bet at all. However, I agree that the 4! and keep checking this board looks like a high pp. I don't play this stakes.

Very easy standard check/fold - you got a bad run out - unlucky - I don't think there is much you can do here. The solver wants a bet of $580 - 5% of the time and I don't think that play is gonna work too often.

hand seems fine

Calling and 3b are both fine imo.

Grunch:

PRE - yeesh. I think I probably fold 99 to the cold 4B from the pro in the straddle. He shouldn't be screwing around here.

FLOP - obviously check.

TURN - this is where it gets interesting. In theory he's supposed to range bet flop. But he might deviate on monotone boards.

Assuming he's not 4B'ing worse than AQs, it's super unlikely he flopped a flush.

He could have the naked Ad in an AKo combo that turns trips. He could have KK, or QQ. Kind of doubtful he's 4B'ing TT or JJ pre, but he might.

It sort of feels like a spot to start bluffing, but I don't see the better hands we can make fold when the board pairs. So I guess just check.

I think I'd be mentally checked out of the hand at this point, and just waiting for him to bet so I could fold.

RIVER - I'd probably just check-fold. It might seem weak, but I don't think V is going to find enough bluffs here, nor do I think a bet will get enough folds to make bluffing +EV.

Alternatively, maybe a $150 block bet keeps him from stealing it by betting AQ with no diamond. Hard for him to raise without a K in his hand. If he folds, we probably had the best hand. There's a slight chance he calls with AX hoping to chop, but it's pretty unlikely if he's a pro.

The risk in blocking is that V can put together that we're holding a PP that isn't KK, and he can put a ton of pressure on us by raising.