1/3 flush on double paired board
AC Borgata 1/3, game just started. V is loose/sticky, call open wide. H is probably seen as weak/tight as did not show or win pot in the past 3 orbits. Both have ~$300.
Pre:
Folds to H at UTG+2, open to $12 with AJd. V calls at CO.
Flop:
Pot $24. Flop 3d6h9d. H bets $10, V calls. Here we probably should cbet most of the time with over cards/FD/BDFD, less with overpairs I guess
Turn:
Pot $44. 3d6h9d 6d. H bets $25, V calls. We have the best flush but not the nuts, so I was thinking about doing some pot control.
River:
Pot $94. 3d6h9d6d 3c. Poker god sees H plays badly and decides to make thing more difficult. H bets $60. V thinks for 5 seconds then raise to $120.
Odds is great so we pretty much always call here. But V's range makes it very likely that he calls down with 3x or 6x. This min raise also gives out information depending how you read this kind of opponent at 1/3. Thoughts?
8 Replies
I’m just never calling a min raise at this level, ever. It’s always the nuts.
That is why I say depending how you read this kind of opponent, sometimes it is always the nuts sometimes it is from someone who bets $20 into a $9 pot on the flop. Weird plays are very polarized, which makes this even more difficult...
Overbet the turn $50
I don’t like the idea of pot control here. You have a sticky opponent and you just hit a five card hand. Not sure how villain responds.
As played, check the river
I don’t think a better hand ever folds
How much does villain bet now?
Villain doubling the bet is a line I often use when I want to be called. Would have bet more if he was trying to fold you - villain puts you in a tough spot with odds to call, but almost never ahead.
If you didn't have the flush, and was just calling him down with Ace high, would you still do it?
Because your hand is only marginally better right now.
Check call river to small sizing, check fold to big sizing.
id actually bet the turn smaller. you will get called with a wider range and sometimes worse flushes will raise which is obv great for you.
once you bet the turn tiny, on a brick river you can actually overbet b/c it looks bluffy.
unfortuantely it wasnt a brick river, and river sizing is bad. bet really small. and fold to any raise. he clearly has a 6.
Grunch:
PRE - I'd probably raise bigger, but otherwise this seems fine.
FLOP - I'd mostly just check the flop when it's 9-high and two-tone. I'd expect V to stab at this a lot, and his bet size may be an indication of his hand strength. When we c-bet 40% pot, and he calls, he probably has at least 1P, or a decent draw.
If we're going to c-bet from OOP, I'd probably use a larger size, to charge all his draws and weak 1P that will start folding out when over-cards come on later streets.
TURN - Barreling for a smallish size when we make our hand seems fine. I might also check to feign weakness and hopefully induce. When opponents call too wide pre and float too much on the flop, he's going to stab a lot when we check.
RIVER - I actually don't think this card is all that scary. I'd think any combo that makes a boat on the river would fold flop or raise turn at some frequency. I think we can barrel for value.
When v clicks it back, I'd actually think about raising. This looks like 9x or something worse that he's turning into a bluff. He might occasionally have a worse flush, or he might get sticky with 9x.
If our read is that V is loose-sticky and continues too wide on every street, he's going to have a ton of worse hands here. But if we also think our table image is that we're weak-tight, I suppose we can just call. It's not impossible he has a boat, and I'd like to see what he has here, so we know for the future if he's capable of finding reasonable bluffs in this spot, or if he's going to randomly spaz.
Just read the rest of the thread.
So... it's 1/3, we're starting short, and our read is that V is loose. It's not inconceivable that he calls flop with 6x or 3x, or slow-plays 99 vs a 40% pot c-bet.
But at the same time, this board is super wet and dynamic. There's a FDFD, two OESD's, and a DGSSD available. And the pot is still pretty small on the flop.
If V had 99, he might have 3B pre, and we'd expect some flop raise frequency. We'd expect any vulnerable 2P combos to raise flop.
We have to think that most of his 3x combos and at least some of his 6x combos get folded on the flop. We'd expect him to fold the rest of his 3x on the turn. We'd expect some of his 6x to raise turn. He can't have any 6Xdd combos that floated the flop when the 6d is on board.
If he's calling too wide pre, he might be calling with all the SC's that flopped a FD, plus possibly some offsuit combos that flopped a SD. He might also have some Broadway combos with one diamond.
He can have a ton of hands to turn into a bluff here - 88, 77, 87, 75, 54, 55, 44, and 9x are all in his range. Plus he can have all the worse flushes that he was slow-playing on the turn.
If he thinks hero is weak-tight, he might not 3B pre with AKo/AQo, so he could conceivably get here and make this play with AxKd or AxQd. He might take this line with TT or JJ that he didn't 3B pre.
If V did have a boat, I'd think he'd raise bigger, after hero opens pre from EP and goes bet-bet-bet with three to a flush and two pairs on board. Hero can have the NF and all the over-pairs here, but it's unlikely hero will have many boats, unless he specifically has 99, or 66 for quads.
Hero's line looks pretty polar. It makes sense for V to just click it with a bluff, but he'd want to go bigger with a nutted hand.
If he's filled up, so be it. I don't see how we can ever fold the NF as played. If we discount most, if not all the boats from his range, and we think he might do this with worse value, or we think he might spaz-jam, clicking it back is pretty tempting.
The main reason to just flat call would be if we think he always folds worse. The only additional value to be had would be in knowing what he has here, for future reference.
