99 preflop

I'd call it off at your effective stack depth.
Main V has AsAx or similar often enough. (Why would they rip with A-high flush?)

And even if SB is sitting there with a flush I think the price is right to draw to the boat 3-ways.

What do you mean?

He means that it's not a close decision. You have top-set against a range that includes lower sets, flushes, semi bluffs with a NFD+overs or even occasionally worse. With your 7 outs to a boat/quads OTT and 10 outs OTR if you miss it OTT, you have a ton of equity. You're over 34% even if he shows you the flush. You're only being asked to put in 40% of the pot, so if there's even just the lower sets in his range and no semi-bluffs, you're golden.

Thanks. I thought raising pre-flop could have been an option, but I was also concerned about getting reraised, especially as villain had opened from early position and was likely to have a relatively strong range.

Very easy call. Pre seems ok, maybe raise more on flop.

One out of 119 times someone flops a flush
It’s highly unlikely someone is ahead, so it’s an easy call.

Nothing is a sure thing in this game, you can always lose. But the best decision is clearly to call, no matter the outcome.

Grunch:

PRE - 3B. Don't flat call.

Our hand is just strong enough to 3B on the BTN over a UTG open for 5BB in a low stakes TX game. If we flat there's a good chance this will go multi-way, and we'll have a capped range that won't be able to rep much value on a lot of boards.

FLOP - Flat call. Don't raise.

SB is still uncapped when he naturally checks to the PFR. The PFR is still uncapped when he bets. The SB could be sand-bagging here. The PFR could have the nuts.

Raising top set is basically semi-bluffing. We'll be praying to boat up if we get called, and we'll want to puke if we get 3B.

It would be different if we flopped top set on a board where our opponents could have a lot of lower sets or 2P combos, and there were a bunch of 8-out straight draws. That's not the case here.

There aren't many really strong yet worse value hands we can target, and there aren't a ton of low equity draws that will continue vs a raise. Everything that continues vs a raise is likely to have decent equity, if not have us beat.

You're about a 2:1 dog vs a made flush, but about a 3:1 favorite vs the naked As, and a 2:1 favorite vs over-pairs with one spade. It's probably pretty close between calling and folding.

I wouldn't get here the way you did, but once here, I'd have a hard time folding, especially in a TX 1/2 game. Flick it in, and hope for the best.

Disagree with doc here. An UTG open should be strong. 99 likely isn't ahead of it. Also you have the button. Calling with a speculative hand that is already made and IP is far preferable to a 3bet, imo, which would be a waste of nines and maybe also of position, given how shallow it would make the SPR.

Also disagree with not raising flop. You have toppest set on a wet board. Get that value before a scare card comes that either kills your hand or your action. We should get calls from FDs and overpairs and we might get semi-bluff shoved on, or shoved on by overpairs that are afraid of the flush. I'm not puking at all if 3bet.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

There's been a c-bet by the PFR on a monotone board, a raise, a cold-call, and a 3B-over-bet-jam by the PFR.

How often is PFR bluffing? How often does the SB not have a made flush?

Assuming you mean UTG, not very often. But SB? Probably pretty often given the c/c. That's probably often a high FD, maybe pair+FD. But even if they both have made flushes, we have 35.55% equity, and assuming SB comes along for the ride, we'll only be paying 27.5% of the pot. Plenty of equity.

This is just a math problem - its a snap call, and hope that the SB comes along to give you even better odds. Sometimes you're lucky and you're well ahead of AsAx, AsKx or a set. But even against a flush you have good equity.

If you're thinking about folding - yes, you are on crazy pills. We're calling $190 to win a $480 pot if SB folds and a $670 pot if SB calls. Who cares if one has the flush? Your worst case scenario in a three way all in is that one has a set and the other has the flush because the set blocks your outs. Even in that case you have 24% equity, and you only need 28% versus both ranges.

Unless I know V1 is splashy, I'm not going to 3B pre with 99, especially in light of effective stacks at only $230. I have to assume between V1 and V2 that even if I'm technically ahead pre, post any Broadway cards will put me behind.

So while I generally will argue on the side of aggro is more often right than wrong, here I'm looking for a favorable flop before putting more in the pot.

Post, vs known aggros and bluffers, I'm going to raise. But vs unknowns, I'm just calling, assuming one of them has at worst a near NFD. AP, I'm probably making a crying call because of my smallish stack.

Played fine so far. Now call, you have top set 100BB deep. Flop raise is good, this can be an overpair + flush draw an awful lot and you want to charge them. SB can have smaller sets sometimes (as can UTG, less commonly). I might play 55 differently.

I agree that 3! pre is just bad.

OTF, we have a hand we're willing to play for stacks (as evidenced by us calling a jam). If we're willing to play for stacks when V is going to jam his AKss, then its a sin not to get value from V when he has AsKh which is definitely calling almost any bet and might bluffjam if we bet, whereas AsKh is going to check back this flop a lot if we check. The passive fish that inhabit these tables will check back sets on a monotone flop a lot. AsAh is going to check back a lot. KsKh. You get the idea, there are a ton of hands we can get value from that are going to call a bet but would very frequently flat and take the cheap draw.

If they are "known aggros" then I'd be more inclined to flat, looking to backjam when they bet their naked As hands. Because I'd have confidence that if they have a big spade, they'll try to take down the pot before they make their hand.

I said I'd call. My problem is with hero's raise.