Preflop War - Is nines fine?

Fold ainec. I think queens is the cusp hand here.

It depends entirely on the table there's no info

Call and see a flop 5-ways.

You want to go to war with a “newbie fish” who just 3! pre with 99? Why? Do you hate money?

Call >>> Fold >>> 4!. 4! KK+ at loosest.

Straightforward fold. Jamming JJ+ (not sure if JJ is too loose) and AK, I'm not sure if there are any pure bluff hands to jam with. Putting in 10% of stack as a cold call OOP to a 3bet is a whale play. The "newbie fish" isn't necessarily playing KK+ (which someone will doubtless be along soon to assert) and could be far wider than that, but 99 isn't a hand to find out, and either of the cold callers could have you dominated. This really is pretty basic and this is a fold whether you are up against good players, bad players or a mixture - it's a fold unless there are very specific circumstances which merit anything else

Folding is just terrible with one caller and 2 others in the hand who will be priced in to call the small raise. Playing 5-ways for a set is printing.

The only way I even think about folding is if I'm reasonably confident that UTG is going to jam a lot. You describe him as a "reg", most regs are only jamming AA/KK at these stakes against so many flatters.

You describe him as "loose" so that suggests to me that he open raises somewhat frequently - is he raising reasonably wide UTG? Does he have hands like QTs? If so, then I think we should flat and set mine. If we think UTG has a tight opening range and is going to be jamming with hands like TT+, AK, even AQ, we probably want to just fold. If UTG is flatting/folding 80% of his range, let's setmine. If UTG is jamming 80%+ of his range because his range is that strong or he is that crazy we should fold. (80% isn't a precise number I'm spitballing, you can calculate it if you're so inclined. The point is we need to predict how frequently UTG is going to jam and force us to fold and how often we get to set-mine.

Yeah, fish are the ones who pay us off when we hit our sets. We have three players involved in the pot with tags that suggest a high probability we can stack them if we hit a set. If the read was "nitty reg" then maybe we don't want to play because we believe nitty reg is going to fold AA/KK when the board comes out 976, and we aren't getting paid enough to justify the risk that UTG has a real hand and 4!s.

The problem is we're not closing the action. We're going to get blown off our hand a fair amount when the original UTG opener reraises. It's generally a leak to call a 3-bet OOP in these spots.

It seems like a fold to me.

Fair enough point, but it's still an UTG open and UTG+1 call that are yet to act. I think either one of them could potentially reraise and it's kind of a disaster to put in 40 trying to set mine and not even see a flop.

Yeah, that will happen some of the time. They will almost never do that without at least QQ+/AK though. It is also shallow to set mine. However, playing it 5-ways against the 3-bettor and the ep players, who are likely to have good hands, is an ideal situation.

Why do we think the UTG LAG isn't going to fire off a 4! here?

I'm folding and grumbling. Agreeing with Omaha.

Edit, and disagreeing with deuce. Maybe it's a pool difference? I'm expecting to see something like 120 from UTG, not a shove yet. Also agreeing with Mox about what I'm 4!'ing here.

I would think the other way, that the LAG UTG raiser has a wide range, so probably doesn't have AA/KK, so probably won't 4!.

The key question I thought was would it get popped if I called, but I thought it doubtful.
Just feels worth playing
Hero calls

5way
(200) JsAd7c
Hero checks
UTG 185, BTN raise 370
Hero folds, UTG folds
BTN shows AcJd

Nothing special here, missed

So was this a bad gamble or a bad flop?

Other than "cos 1/3", what assumptions have you used about the "loose aggressive reg" which makes you think he opens a wide range from UTG but doesn't 4bet most of that range with a bucket load of dead money in there?

If it went utg 40 and 3 calls we could happily call 40 and set mine and this would be a good gamble with a bad flop.

The problem in this hand with cold calling 40 is we don’t always get to see a flop. The two tightest positions have raised and called and still to act.

I get he’s lag utg so not as likely to have AA or KK, but that makes him more likely to smash with AQ or tens or even something worse when he sees all the dead money.

UTG1 can still wake up with a back raise too.

Why would loose/aggressive reg want to build the pot and isolate with whatever against newbe fish's KK+, JJ+/AK or whatever?

Not saying there couldn't be a 4!, but it doesn't happen that often at 1/3.

If the flop came AJ9, you're getting a ton of money into the pot while a huge favorite. So yeah, just a bad flop.

The call is primarily reliant on the idea that UTG isn't going to 4! frequently. Generally speaking, even "loose aggressive" players at $1/$3 rarely 4! when deep without AA/KK. You thought he wouldn't and in this particular instance you were right. I think that assessment is probably right about most players in most of these games. If you got raised pre, then you just lit $40 on fire. In this case you got to see the flop and the action confirmed that if you hit a set, there's a decent chance you make money. So $40 well spent.

You don't see many 4!s at 1/3 without AA/KK, because the 3!ing ranges are so strong. It just isn't going to happen that often. I don't know what those posters were talking about that it would get 4! a lot. Flatting is obviously the only play with 99.

You are getting good immediate odds 5-way, but bad implied odds with an SPR of 2 or 3. It is a really profitable flat, but there is a limit to your expected wins. There is so little behind, a set loses occasionally in which case you get stacked, and occasionally it does get 4!.

Just awful play by BTN, cold calling the 3! with AJ and then raising the AJ7 flop.

Aggressive reg is not a dummy

You people seem to think that raising big OOP with no advantage other than folding weak hands is viable. The only player that calls probably has you crushed - and someone will call (or re-raise)

I think you’re creating some really bad situations for yourself with a 4Bet and basically just adding your bet to the dead money. Sure, it might get thru sometimes, but putting a lot of money in there is not the answer.

A 4-bet doesn't even need to be viable for it to happen. Sometimes lags just want to gamble, or can't help themselves. Or sometimes UTG+1 flats with AK, then decides to backraise.

Maybe the people saying 4-bets rarely happen do play in vastly different pools. The games I play in are borderline maniacal preflop these days. The days of low stakes players only raising with aces and kings ended a long time ago in my experience (probably around the pandemic). Nowadays players have all been trained to play insane from watching stuff like Hustler live.

Yeah, on the east coast, 3!s at 1/3 from randoms are a high percentage AA/KK, but some regs 3! reasonably wide. 4!s deep at 1/3 or even 2/5 from regs are usually AA/KK. I have seen a reg iso 5! a short stack shove with AQ, figuring the flat caller of the 3! didn't have that much.

It might be better playing people who 4! light, as could get action for QQ+ etc.

Played some 1/2 in the afternoon and had people fold TT and JJ face up to a 3! and fold JJ and QQ face up to a 3! and 60% cbet or 1.2x flop shove on low boards.

On the other hand, playing 1/3 on a weekend night, they didn't 4! light, but would call my lightish, 3!s and had trouble postflop when I missed.

Not sure where you play. Won an entry to a major tournament in Europe a long time ago and they played much more aggressively. Like doubled up starting with 70x BB calling down with QQ as an overpair against a 3! and 3 barrels. Villain had a suited gapper and had a double gutshot on the turn. Thought the play was better there, but some regs were over aggressive playing like Banana like that.