Weird spot out of nowhere versus splashy villain

snap call?
Hard to imagine villain has any value hand besides qq here?
9Tcc type hand always firing the turn for fold equity.

I think flop is either bet/3bet then jam turns
or
x/r or x/c vs villain.

Bet/calling is punting vs villain.

Thanks.

Without spoiling anything, I do think that XR flop or bet-3bet is better than BC here. I was giving villain a lot of middle-strength hands (particularly after the previous HH) and thought he would likely fold those hands to a 3b, but I don't even know if that's true, and it's certainly possible to have bet-3bet bluffs here.

Why do you think that XC is good, but BC is a punt??

Flop is bad for us. Xc probably my default against an unknown on flop.
Against villain it all depends how big of a bet he stabs with.
If small, we x/r'ing everytime.
If big, x/c seems a bit better.
It's natural instinct for players to stab small w/weaker holdings, bigger w/stronger ranges. Although might not be the case for this specific villain but it's the pop tendencies.

That makes sense. I guess I would sooner call that a check-evaluate, but it's just semantics.

That being said, I don't think this flop is bad for my hand or my range. I probably have every set here opening from MP, and I have 87s. At this point, I wasn't giving either villain 87o or stuff like 82s, so I would say that the board texture is neutral. It's not like it's 876 or something.

B/C is a punt because KK is the effective nuts vs whale who overvalue hands.
It's like saying you aren't sure of your hand strength and gives up the initiative.
Bet/3bet is a better line imho is because we can go for max value and stack villain on the turn.
We are playing this hand like time rolls back 20 years where whales overvalue 1 pair hand and has no fold button.

Sure sometimes we get our ass handed to us when villain shows up w/78 or sets but we can take such chances after seeing over valuing tptk on qt8.
He checked the turn in hh not because he thought it wasn't good enough, but rather he wanted to slowplay top2 to lure you in on the river.
River he bet/folded because the obvious T got there, he didn't think you had boats, he thought he played good and got max value but unlucky because you made trips on the river.

When he's flatting AQs, he's also flatting alot of the 99-AA. He's also flatting A8s. These are all his flop raising range. Then he also has to have some bluffs random bluffs like 56/9T/JT. Then he also gotta random spazz w/7x,2x. Even if he doesn't bluff/spazz and only value raise, his value range is so wide that KK is way way way ahead of his whole range.

This is a Mindhunter-level read, haha. I didn't include the table talk in the earlier hand history (the post was long enough) but he kept saying, "How can you have a T here? I don't see how you can have a T. Are you turning JJ into a bluff somehow? Maybe you have AT exactly." as if he couldn't conceive that he was behind on the flop. FWIW I am not really sure I can even shove a T on the river there when V bets so big.

I agree with most of the rest of your post as well. I should have tried to get stacks in on the flop (or turn) in this spot, versus this guy.

AP, yeah, 3bet flop to 200, then jam turn.

AP, I think you have to bet out big on the turn.

AP, yeah call river, though I’ve certainly seen Q8hh in this situation.

As for the HH. I know a lot about playing poorly in 2-5 NLHE. Villain played that hand very poorly. I can’t see how he could be successful in a tough 5-10 game.

I disagree with much of this. The HH isn't very analogous because V was OOP in a 4-way pot, whereas here he's IP in a 3-way pot.

We can't assume V's flat calling range in the BB when there are two limpers in the middle is the same as his flat calling range on the BTN when the PFR is in the middle.

V's flop x/r with TPTK on QT8rb in a four-way pot vs 3 uncapped ranges is pretty spewy. He probably checked turn because he wasn't sure top 2P was best, now that the A brings in KJ, on top of J9 that was already there on the flop. He checked to see if hero bet, and how much. He was trying to pot control, just hoping to get to showdown.

When V shows he's capable of massively over-playing thin value on the flop, even when he's OOP, and that he'll slow down when he gets called, hero's b/c line on the flop isn't a punt. It's a pretty good line, at least when hero is IP, and is happy to call a x/r.

The question we need to ask is what V does with thin value on the flop when he's IP and we check to him. If he checks back a lot, but will raise over a bet, we should bet/call. If he bets a lot, and will call a x/r too wide, we should x/r.

We should also ask what V does with thick value when he's IP on the flop. Would he ever trap with 2P or a set? Is he always raising with thin value but generally trapping by flat calling with thick value? If we check to him, does he tend to telegraph his hand strength with his bet sizing?

What we should take from the prior hand history is that V will take aggro actions with thin value on the flop, but then he'll slow down on the turn. We don't mind when we're IP, but when we're OOP we don't want to give up the betting lead when the turn is likely to check through.

Bet-3B'ing the flop seems like it would be over-playing our hand, especially as our c-bet size increases. We'd mostly be folding out worse and getting called by better. So I'd think we're better off c-betting larger, decreasing the raise frequency, or going for a x/r. I'd prefer the x/r if V has sizing tells or likes to trap IP, and / or if V is prone to raising even when we use a larger c-bet size.

Hero c-bet around 1/2 pot here, and V raised. It's hard to know what to think when we use an in-between bet size. But when hero c-bets 1/2 pot and V just goes 3x with the raise, my gut instinct would be to think V is getting OOL.

OP: is 15 your standard open size at 2/5 in this game? If so, fine. But in this situation with V on BTN and likely to call wide, I would be opening probably 25 or 30 in 2/5. I'm not sure the HH with V is very instructive here as many gambley Vs will want to float TAGs wide from BTN in this situation at 200+bb eff, esp for just 3bbs.

AP flop: agree that x or smaller c-bet is better.

AP Turn: what x does he have here on this turn after the flop action? We have many NFDs. He has way fewer and should be denying equity if he thinks he's ahead on this turn. His x is odd.

AP River: so his line is Polar/x behind/Polar. Agree with Docvail that his line is FOS.

We get 5-3 to call and I'm not going to level myself here, especially holding the Kc. Just call at a fair price. If he has Q8s gg sir.

Also, notice in the HH, V bet just over 1/2 pot on the river, from OOP, with thin value, after we checked back the turn. Yet it's hard to see what he'd be targeting for value with his top 2P, when two straight draws got there and the board is paired. It's also hard to put him on AQ when he x/r's the flop.

Here, he's 1.5x potting it, IP, after the turn checks through and we check again. This would seem very polar from most opponents, who'd be repping flushes, but would often be bluffing when they check back turn. This V seems like the type who might over-value a non-nutted hand, something that beats ours, but isn't the nuts, so it isn't polar. He's de-polarized.

Again, it's hard to find the hands he's targeting to call if he has value, and it's hard to put him on a hand that makes a ton of sense in this line.

I think I'd call. His line makes no sense, and I'd think he'd bet smaller with value. I wouldn't be expecting to win all the time. I expect to see some strange stuff, like hands that were 1P + 2BDD's that went runner-runner to make a middling flush.

Against someone capable the Kc makes for a very comfortable call.

Your thought process on the turn and river is similar to mine. When V originally raised the flop, I was giving him a lot of middle-strength hands (JJ - 99, some 8X, etc.) and some nutted stuff, but when he thought a bit and checked, it really felt like he had nothing. I decided to check the river because I thought this particular player would not check back with ten-high, or whatever, and that it was more profitable to bluff-catch than to hope villain would hero with second pair.

Obviously, I was completely prepared to snap off a reasonably sized river bet, but the 1.5x pot sizing gave me some pause. I don't know enough about his game to answer any of your other questions, but I agree that his line feels a bit like a bluff.

$15 is my standard opening size. Some people in the pool will use $20, and some vary their sizes, but $15 is fairly normal. I agree that I should size up at times, and do when I am getting tons of action, but hadn't made the adjustment here yet.

I don’t think it matters a lot as you don’t vary sizing based on hand strength. 20 seems like the standard but 15 and 25 are fine.

I had another post typed out on my phone but lost it when I took a call.

Trying to keep it short, my read on this V would be that he's incapable of applying sound logic, so he doesn't know how to range opponents, and ends up taking a lot of aggressive actions in spots where it wouldn't seem to make any sense. Basically he's a TAG-fish who does a lot of button-clicking.

That leads to how I was ranging him. He's not raising flop and checking back turn with 2P+ or an OESD that picked up a BDFD. But he could be raising flop with some sort of 1P + a BD draw hand that may or may not have picked up the BDFD and checks back because he thinks he has a smidge of SDV and wants to pot control.

I'd think he'd be slightly more likely to keep betting if he picked up equity with a BDFD, and do more pot controlling if he didn't.

When you check river, he could bet his flushes for value, but he might also just monkey-bet his 2nd or 3rd pair because he no longer thinks he has enough SDV when you call the flop raise and then check twice. It doesn't look like you have a flush, but what can V beat when you call the flop raise?

Like, if you bet river, he's calling with flushes and folding all his 1P. When you check river, he's betting flushes for value and turning everything without enough SDV into a bluff. I think he'd check back if he ran into 2P with Q8/Q7.

The only thing I wouldn't be sure about is the bet sizing he'd use for value vs a bluff, because he doesn't know how to range his opponents. He might bet big with both, because he doesn't know better, or he might split and go big with one and small with the other, but we don't know which it is until we see some showdowns.

If you see this V a lot, pay attention to the hands he shows down after raising flop and checking back turn. Does he give up on bluffs and check back turn with SDV? Does he then turn SDV into a bluff on rivers?

I prefer a flop 3bet. Checking flop would also be acceptable. As played, call river although your hand is somewhat face up

Can't get this hand out of my head...

The prior hand history makes me think V has no idea what he's doing or why. He's not ranging opponents or thinking ahead to future streets. He doesn't know what he's targeting for value. He over-plays thin value on the flop, and gets lost after that.

His just over half-pot river bet in the AQ hand would seem to be for value, without him realizing there really isn't much he can beat that will call. Or maybe he was block betting (?). AQ on QT8AT is a hand with a smidge of SDV, such that he might bet half pot so he wouldn't have to face a bigger bet if he checked.

If we wanted to give him credit for sizing his bet to get called by worse, maybe we could say he thought he could get called by Q8, or just KQ/QJ, but that's giving him a lot of credit when he takes the line he did.

I'm not sure how to take the info from that hand and logically extend it to this one, when he's IP and over-betting the river. The flop raise and turn check would seem to align with his tendency to over-play thin value on the flop and get lost afterwards. But the over-bet and the BDFD coming in adds a new twist.

To find range him here, we have to find the thin value that raises the flop (some 8x combo?), that doesn't barrel turn (is that because he didn't pick up the BDFD and is worried he's beat, or he did pick it up and is worried he's beat, but now he's hoping to make a flush?), and then either over-bets for value, or over-bets as a bluff.

The turn tank-check in the AQ hand makes me think he was considering betting but decided it was too thin, then decided it wasn't too thin when hero checked back. He may have been doing the same thing here, when he mini-tank-checked back the turn.

For him to be betting for value here, he would have to have exactly A8cc, or he has to think that any flush is good here, but then that raises questions about whether or not he thinks any 8x combo from 98 to A8 is good enough to raise flop. It also sort of suggests that he'd keep betting the turn, if he thought his flop raise was for value.

For him to be bluffing here, he has to think we'd never get to the river with any combo that makes a flush and check to him again. That doesn't exactly require him to have the ability to range opponents. It would help him if he could range us, but if he just thinks we never have a flush, then our range is simply "not a flush".

I dunno, man. I think I'd expect V to just check it back with 8x at some frequency, if he's mostly just one-and-done after he raises flop and gets called. I'd also kind of expect him to barrel turn with any 8x combo that picked up the flush draw. I'd think he'd choose a smaller bet size if he had a medium-strength hand and was going for thin value.

His raise-check-bet line looks bluffy to me, but his over-bet on a BDFD-completing board looks like he just has the nuts and is hoping to get paid (again, not being able to figure out what exactly we're supposed to have that pays him off). He sounds like someone who would be too scared to fire for a huge size if he was bluffing, but he also sounds like someone who arrives on the river with a $hlt-ton of hands that probably need to be turned into bluffs.

It's interesting that he plays bigger, and he's been topping off constantly. My gut instinct is that he'd be more comfortable bluffing for a large size if he's got more cash on him, and that he reloaded so he could take this sort of line more confidently. Like, if he started the hand less than $1k eff, he probably wouldn't be as comfortable raising the flop with thin value, and might just jam turn if he picked up the BDFD. It may also be that a $300+ bluff isn't a big bluff to him, when he also plays 5/10.

I started out thinking we should call, but now I'm not so sure. It may be one of those spots where we're not sure how we're beat, we just know we're beat. He may have just gotten super-lucky after over-playing some 8Xcc combo on the flop.

Just now remembering something Bart Hanson talks about - playing straight draws aggressively, even on flush-draw boards, as a best-of-both-worlds. We get paid when we make the straight, and we get folds when the FD comes in. This is how he'd play T9 and 65s, maybe.

Wouldn't fault anyone for flicking in the call. It's pretty thin, but we gave him enough rope, he might be capable, and he would seem to have a lot of hands with no SDV in his range.

i think check river is not that great because i expect anyone described as a regular to have a bluff frequency of near 0 given the line / runout and you have plausible bluffs. i think checking flop is probably a good bit better than betting given described villain and im not really sure what u gain by doing so

probably close in theory, in practice i doubt people bluff like this / for this sizing is he's remotely self aware and buried. even the history hand seems wp by him

if you want to find calls i would look to have a club and then rng the bluff catchers (that are usually pure). my biggest fear is he backs into tp with aq or something and tries to go for value but i dont think hes going to overbet that thin on bdfd runout esp given the aq sizing in history hand. is different if its a rec or something but nothing about the description really makes me think he just throws money at the pot in desparation scenarions while repping nothing. also like if u look at pre ranges, what plausible one club combos do you want him to have? if he has an offsuit hand it probably pairs on the queen except for idk maybe AcJx and you'd think that type of hand would just barrel the turn. i doubt he randomly raises the flop with 5c5x to do this when he can just show down and beat some amount of ace highs / missed straight draws while again representing extremely few hands. otherwise you're just hoping he randomly spazzes flop, gives up turn, then bets river without regard to his hand. i not really sure the villain description suggests that. i have no idea what his value range is but i generally think when regs take lines that look fos like this without history for the most part you are going to get shown the winning hand

flop as you. id simplify to x range.

the guy telling you to b3b the flop and jam turn at spr 22 is lol

river as you

river facing the bet as you

the issue like i said is what do you want him to bluff with? nothing here feels all that natural and if you look at your line, you look like you have a pair (likely an overpair) and this doesn't strike me as a remotely appealing spot to bluff as a reg who is buried. the bluffs are supposed to come from 65 / 54 that missed without a club in them which doesn't feel at all intuitive to me and i think if he wanted to bluff with those hands he's likely to bet the turn or choose a different sizing here. again i have no idea what his value range actually is but you're not actually making much calling here at equilibrium and the Kc doesn't appear to make a huge difference ev wise. in practice i dont think the solve matters a ton as most people don't have this line at all, and then the majority of people that take it probably have 0 bluffs in it, and the guys who do bluff are going to be way overdoing it to the point that it should be obvious and pointless to talk about the hand. i will say its a reasonable / valid line for him to take and you're essentially having people approach 2/5 / 5/10 reg like hes a 1/3 rec lol

final point i dont think i articulated well is (obviously) all regs are not created equal. i have no idea how good the idea is but most people err on the side of passivity / nitty esp in the unorthodox spots and it should be apparent who are the guys that lean the other way. like yeah everyone can run it on a 3 flush board with the bare blocker but the spots that require planning / creativity / on the fly thinking are going to be underbluffed as a whole.

im also much more open to the river size being ~thinner value than you would expect if the flop is not 3 ways. again i have no idea of knowing if he knows any of this or not but usually its really clear who is good / spew / moron if you have any kind of experience with them. the line also doesn't really look that bluffy to me, like yes the turn check reduces value combos significantly but i dont really expect that to get paired with a river overbet on this card, and i think the people who are smart enough to understand that b150 is viable size otr are smart enough to realize they are repping very thin. is totally possible its just blast off spew or whatever but i'd expect that player type to barrel the turn an overwhelming amount of the time. also the aq history hand with the check ott makes me think he's capable of evaluating his hand stregnth and betting appropriately

i think he's more surprised that he got jammed on given turn check and his blockers. obviously you shouldn't shove the river with a ten (unless you're bluffing). tbh probably any tx u have (debatable exactly what you're cbetting 3 ways and then calling xr with that exists in the middle pair region but maybe idk jt w bdfd) should bluff off from the turn when he checks. though him yapping about all of that makes me a bit less inclined to believe he understands how 3 ways / bdfd affects his river decision in this hand. still not enough to think he's going to show up w Qx too much though for this sizing. like i would be thrilled to see / consider raising vs b50-65 in the hand