1/2 Live - River Decision with Flopped Top Set vs Value-Heavy Rec

Preflop is cuspy to call $30 more $1k deep vs 2 donks? You can’t be serious.

Agree with flop donkbet, I was hoping BTN whale has an overpair that he would never fold to the xr. Sadly, he probably had 2 overs.

Why overbet turn when nobody seems to have anything on flop? Purpose of 2/3 is to not scare away Jx, get some flush/straight draws and maybe even BTN whale’s AK/AQ to come along that would all fold to a bigger sizing. If anything, I feel like smaller is better here to keep their continuing ranges wider.

If I use this open size I'm folding this pre 7+ handed utg

Turn I would check raise people stab too much here and our hand has good properties for it unblocking Jx

Why are we opening for this size?

You probably haven't play 1/2 recently. It might be a standard size in an evening game. Maybe don't want to vary sizing by strength of hand. It does seem kind of large even so.

I would lead on the low connected flop. 3-bettor might check back as he did, but isn't folding an overpair. Kind of a disaster not being able to get close to allin on the turn with this board.

3-bettor probably had AK/AQ, suited broadway or something else that missed.

Might bet river. Have to call the small bet as played.

It's a fantastic spot to 4B with a strong hand. It's not a great spot to flat call and cap our range in a multi-way pot we'll be playing from the worst absolute position and the worst relative position.

Over-bet turn to target all the 99, lower sets, 2P, Jx, and umpteen million draws in our opponents' ranges.

Name the hands that check flop, and will call a 2/3 pot bet on the turn, but won't call a 1.5x pot bet?

If you're not folding 88 to a squeeze after a 7x open from UTG, what hands are you folding?

Flop feels.like an excellent/standard donk spot

Turn is fine, I wonder if you could go bigger, button may have checked a lot of overpairs and the others can have smaller.sets/two pair/pair plus draw that you can go hard after. You absolutely can't say that "nobody has anything" after the flop when everyone has just checked to the preflop aggressor

Not folding river for this price. You say he doesn't bet one pair hands thinly, but it's hard without a big sample to say what people don't do, and there could easily be some small sets here, enough to justify calling a set, probably won't make you rich but I'd expect it to be breakeven at least

Because this is 1/2 live and $15 is the standard open size?

Absolutely nothing to a 3x click from a whale OTB. Definitely not any PP, $1k eff.

Literally any Jx, T9, 76, 65, etc. all will snap fold to 1.5x pot at this table. $100 was already a HUGE bet at this table.

So are you bluffing 1.5x in spots like this?

Your $100 bet doesn't accomplish anything. Either check and go for a meaty check raise, or over-bet.

You need to work on ranging your opponents. What do you think you're targeting for value when the flop checks through?

Do you think the BTN is checking back 99+? Do you think either of your opponents is going to fold AJ on the turn? Do you think a combo draw is folding for 1.5x pot?

You're playing 500BB deep, flopped top set on a super wet and connected board. What's your plan to maximize the value of your hand, which seems pretty vulnerable on the flop?

If you bet $225 and either calls, the pot will be $600 going to the river, and you'll have $730 back. At what point do you plan to get some money into the pot?

I wish I understood why people flop a monster and don’t bet - it defies logic

150 in the pot with a board that clearly misses the pre-flop raisers range, so he likely checks.
Bet 50 on the flop.

As played, I don’t think you bet the turn if you’re not going to bet the river. The way you played, it’s very hard to read villain.

I think it’s always ok to go with a read and make an exploitative fold. It’s leveling as he knows that he must bet big to get a fold. A small bet looks like value - but it might make a strong reg fold. Yet ABC is probably oblivious and thinks his hand is best.

The best reason for calling is that you encouraged a bet by checking the river. Also, you only have to be better 18% of the time, so you need to be sure about your read.

Again, I would bet, bet, bet - so I honestly think I would have a better read by the river. Bet value until you face resistance

I would lead the flop for 100 into 150. It is a wet dynamic board.

Preflop 3-bettor isn't folding an overpair, but isn't giving much action anyway with AK or other high cards.

It's dubious to assume nobody has anything on the flop, and to further assume neither opponent has anything on the turn.

The CO naturally checked to the PFR on the BTN, so the CO might actually have something. And either opponent could have liked that J on the turn.

Is anyone who checked flop with AJ/KJ/QJ going to fold to 1.5x pot when they make top pair, good kicker, on this two-flush board, and you didn't 4B pre? What if they have AJss/KJss/QJss?

You didn't tell us the BTN was a whale in your OP. You only told us about V in the CO.

If BTN is a whale, what exactly does that mean to you, vis-a-vis his pre-flop 3B range / flop check-back range? Whales tend to call too wide. Is he also 3B'ing too wide? Is his 3x sizing a tell, or is it meaningless, because you opened to 7.5BB?

If he's 3B'ing too wide, would it stand to reason that he might c-bet too wide, even when multi-way, perhaps especially when action checks to him, last to act? Would he c-bet two over-cards at some frequency, or always check back?

If he had any sort of hand, wouldn't he bet it? If he didn't c-bet the flop, is he really going to call a 2/3 pot bet with just two un- paired over-cards and no draw?

What hands would be in the "wider range" that calls 2/3 pot but folds to 1.5x pot? If BTN isn't checking back flop with the NFD draw or 99+, and isn't 3B'ing pre with worse PP's than 88, what can he possibly have that will call 2/3 pot on the the turn? If CO is 3B'ing TT+ pre, and sometimes donking flop with 2P+, and folding turn with air, what can he have that will call?

We're mostly targeting Jx and draws on the turn. How much fold equity do we have versus JX or a good draw? How much actual equity do we have vs a range that is weighted towards JX and draws?

What does it mean that he's a whale? What do you think he's 3B'ing here? If you think you're ahead, why not 4B, to squeeze out the CO and either take it down pre or get this HU with some dead money in the pot?

You said BTN is a whale. He's 3B'ing all those hands pre? Then checking them on the flop? And then folding them to 1.5x pot when they significantly improve on the turn?

You said CO is loose-passive. What do you think his range looks like when he double-flats pre, then checks this flop? When he flat calls your 7.5x open, and then over-calls the 3x 3B in MP, would you say he calls too much, or folds too much?

You made a speculative call pre, presumably because you thought you had good IO if you made a good hand. But realizing implied odds requires us to actually make the highest EV plays post flop. You assumed BTN would c-bet flop, even multi-way, so you could get in a x/r. That's not the highest EV play. Versus two loose opponents, we just need to bet for value.

When he doesn't fall into our trap, we need to start building the pot ourselves, targeting the strongest parts of our opponents' ranges - the hands that will actually pay us off by calling or even raising. It's a huge mistake to use a bet size to target weak hands, because those hands aren't calling or raising.

When you start building the pot on the turn, you can go much bigger, because you have all the air, draws and thin value in your range after you just flat called pre. It's not like you'll have QQ+ here. The best hand you can have is likely to be JJ, unless you're opening 76s from UTG pre, and calling the 3B from OOP. Most of your range isn't going to be that strong. And the parts of our family opponents' ranges that call turn are going to have decent equity versus our range.

If you're going to make a speculative call pre, and flop top set on an super wet and dynamic board, in a multi-way pot with one or more callers between you and the PFR, just come out and donk. If no money goes into the pot on the flop, you need to start aggressively betting when disconnected over-cards come out.