2/5 ~ villain is capped what to do?

Pre: In a vaccuum I raise to 40 to 50 here, but you may have good reasons about the table to check behind.
Flop: as played, check is goo.
Turn: I like the lead. If you are sure he wouldn't check behind QJ or 33 on the flop, then raise to 140 looking to jam most non spade rivers.

If he’s aggro, would just call and let him fire again. He could have a jack and figure no one has a queen. I agree we play like we’re ahead, because we probably are.

My initial thought was bet the flop. Think i would bet the 20 then. However, when I do that it looks like a queen, so your check may have been a better play.

I don’t think you can anticipate getting stacks in, though you should be willing. Villain likely shuts down looking for a FreeCard, but you say he’s aggro.

It’s so hard to play OOP
Against the population I’m doubling the turn bet expecting a call and then leading the river. Against an aggro player, I don’t mind him betting for me. Give him the rope if he’ll take it, don’t scare him into making a crazy laydown.

Grunch:

PRE - raise it up to the moon. Make it $50, at least.

FLOP - with TP2K on this board, with this action, in this game, I'd probably lead out for full pot or more.

TURN - as played, when the flop checks through and we turn trips, I don't mind the lead, but I'd go bigger than 2/3 pot. I might just pot it.

Alternatively, I might go for a check raise. Someone is going to bet if we check again.

How do you know he doesn't have a boat? Couldn't he slow play something on the flop, when he's IP?

You said he can make hero folds. What do you think he'll do with a worse hand if we bet-3B here?

Turn raises tend to be under-bluffed. I'd think turn 3B's are super under-bluffed. What worse hands do you think he's raising here, for 2.5x, after UTG flats?

Qx/Jx/fd that didn't bet the flop.

He's never having better he didn't raise pre or bet flop.

Hm...your default is check range oop in srp, but in limp, you lead full pot?

You think he'd raise a flush draw on the turn, over a bet and a call? Why wouldn't he just bet flop with his flush draw? Why would he raise turn with JX?

Why can't he have a better hand than KQ on the turn, something that may have checked back flop?

There were 5 limps to him pre. How wide do you think he's over-limping on the button? Do you think he'd raise pre with Q4s or 44? What about QJo?

There were 5 checks to him on the flop. How often does anyone have a good hand when action checks to him?

Put yourself in his position. Assume that all the other players in the hand are likely to raise pre with QJs+, and bet flop with AQ+, but check KQ or worse and any draw. Would you think your opponents are pretty capped when they all check to you? I would. Is it really impossible he may have checked back with QJ, Q4 or 44, hoping to induce someone to probe bet/stab on the turn?

Yes, in a SRP, I'm usually just checking when HU and OOP, because opponents will over-stab when checked to, and telegraph their hand strength with their bet sizing. They tend not to do that in multi-way pots. They tend to play much more honestly, and passively. So with thick value, I'm more likely to just lead out with a bet.

If you lead out for a large size on the flop, and get called, you should check most or all turns, and evaluate. If you're beat, your opponents' actions should tell you. If action checks through on the flop, and you come out and bet turn, you're effectively shooting in the dark.

I find it concerning that V is raising turn, over a bet and a call from the player next to act, who should be strong. In V's position, I would assume you were betting QX, and UTG is calling with QX or a draw to the nuts. I wouldn't even think about raising without a very strong hand, because I'm not expecting many folds.

Last session - I flop trips with 53s on 733 two-tone in a 3-way SRP, where I'm in the middle. The PFR c-bets, I flat call, and loose-sticky V behind me over-calls, closing the action. Turn is a total brick, an off-suit 2. He fires again, for a somewhat large size, I jam for 2x pot, V behind folds. PFR says something like, "so sick", before he sigh-calls with QQ, and I hold / scoop.

If I raised flop, the V behind me would have folded, and I wouldn't have been able to stack the main V on the turn. I would have been turning my hand face up, and he would have known he was beat. I would have won a much smaller pot.

Maybe he thought I was bluffing. But what bluffs would I have in that spot, when he's raising-betting-betting and there's a loose-sticky opponent calling-calling behind me? What worse value could I be raising when I just flat pre and flat flop? What does he beat? Nothing, really. But he couldn't fold, even in a spot that has to be super under-bluffed.

There's a lot of value in delayed aggression.

If you 3B turn, I think you're usually going to fold out worse and get called by better.

If you call turn, you can check-evaluate river. It's hard for him to follow through on a river bluff on this board. He may even check back some strong hands, for fear of value-owning himself versus the nutted portion of our range.

If you want to 3B, I might just click it. In his spot, that would make me concerned about you having QJ that was sandbagging on the flop. I wouldn't be trying to get it in with Q4 or 44 in that scenario. A min-click could freeze the action so the river checks through.

Make it 275 more now. Less than 300 to call. Hopefully he can't fold a queen.

275 all in otr. Hard for people to fold to the same bet here.

Sorry but when I read the first line of the OP I thought it said, "Villain is a midget asian reg..." I thought, Damn that's kinda f'ed up. lol

i just call. We checked the BB so we have plenty of dusty QX in range, QT-Q2 that is a bit scared now, but doesnt want to fold. So I call with KQ as well to protect my range.

2 notes about small IP raises: OTF its often done to x back turn and buy a free cards. OTT its often done with weakish top pair to x back riv and buy a showdown. But in this spot, it wouldnt make sense unless villain is doing it with like... AJ? i doubt it. So I actually think villain here is more polarized than his sizing might suggest. So just call is even better in this case.

Yeah, just remembering that this line of check-back flop, raise turn tends to be super under-bluffed.

He might have worse QX that limped pre and checked back the flop in a 5-way pot, but it's hard to figure out why he'd raise turn when we lead out for 2/3 pot and get called by the player next to act.

Like, we should have QX, or JX at a minimum. The UTG caller should have QX or JX. UTG could have been sand-bagging something on the flop, and he's still pretty uncapped.

Maybe he has something like AKss, KTss, or T9ss that didn't raise pre, but if he was going to bluff at this, he could have started his bluff on the flop. If he didn't want to bluff into 5 people, why is he bluffing now that two opponents have shown interest?

It kinda feels like he has AQ or QJ, or somehow found his way here with Q4 or 44. This would be a really weird spot for him to start a bluff, especially for such a small size. Like, what's folding to a 2.5x raise here, that bets out into 5 people, or calls next to act?

I agree, but OP is pretty adamant he can never have a boat.

Funny you say that. As I was typing my last post I was thinking that if OP got a reveal, he'd know if V did or didn't have a boat. Suddenly I'm trying to guess the ending instead of trying to find the highest EV play. Weird how this forum makes us do that (just me?).

Anyhoo...

I'm anticipating the reveal is V didn't have a boat, but had some hand that got there on the river, and OP regrets not 3B'ing turn. Or he didn't get a reveal, because he folded river on a card that completed a flush or straight, or he didn't get a reveal because he bet big or jammed on a K and V mucked.

I like the cut of OP's jib, so I try not to give him too hard a time. Yet I can't help but notice how often he has a pretty accurate / detailed read on an opponent, but doesn't find the correct adjustment to exploit the opponent's tendency.

So, here, we get that V is an aggrofish, but made a crazy laydown of the 2nd nut flush to a passive fish on the river. What he may have overlooked is that V may be aware enough to lay down the 2nd NF when a passive fish takes an aggressive action, but it doesn't logically follow that V is going to make a crazy lay down to our hero, if V doesn't think hero is also a passive fish.

Logically then, I'm guessing that hero opted not to 3B turn, because he didn't want V to make a crazy laydown. But then the river card is a kick in the dick and V scoops.

Or the river is a K (or a brick), and OP struggles to find the best action to get V to put all the money in. Maybe he checks it to V, hoping V will bet big so he can x-jam, but V just checks back. That sort of aligns with the small raise size here, if he is FOS. He might be trying to buy a cheap showdown with worse QX.

Oooooohhhhh....wait. Hero flats. The fish over-calls, and the fish gets there on the river. Hero checks, fish bets huge, and V gets away after causing carnage with this turn min-click.

All the emphasis will be on the turn or river decision, completely overlooking the earlier mistakes made by not raising pre, not leading out big on the flop, and not going bigger on the turn. It's been a recurring theme in OP's threads - expecting aggro opponents to do his betting for him.

Like, it's 2/5. We're $600 effective. We have KQo in the BB. There were 5 limpers. Raise it to the goddam moon. Make it $50. If someone limp-3B's, it's an easy fold, and we move onto the next hand. More likely, hero gets it heads up with V, and takes him to value-town by going bet-bet-bet, or he checks turn and V over-bets with worse QX, and hero can jam on him.

We should stack V if he has worse Qx here. Instead we'll end up winning a small pot, or just losing because we don't want to bet our hand for value and risk scaring our opponents away.

It's multi-way. So many bad things can happen when we try to get fancy.

Dango -

The turn raise after checking back the flop is generally under-bluffed. Turn raises over a bet and a call are generally under-bluffed.

Opponents will slow-play more when they're in position. Even aggro opponents will have some traps when they're last to act.

Opponents who are not last to act tend to fast-play their thick but vulnerable value, but slow-play their nutted value when there are players left to act behind them.

Multi-way pots tend to be under-bluffed. When you lead out on the turn, first to act, into five opponents, you're not supposed to be bluffing, even when the flop checks through. When UTG calls next to act, not closing the action, he's supposed to have a strong hand.

Paired boards can be over-bluffed by the PFR when he c-bets the flop, but there was no PFR here, and no one bet the flop. It's hard to find V's natural bluffs on the turn that don't bet the flop. It's hard to find any bluffs when he clicks it back into two opponents on this board.

All the signs point to V having a hand that's better than KQ. The worst hand I can find that makes a bit of sense is AQo with the As. There are a bunch of hands that make somewhat less sense - QJ, JJ, Q4, and 44.

It's hard to find his bluffs that want to raise turn when they can flat call IP and getting 3.5 to 1. Those are decent enough odds to call and chase a draw when there's still over $500 behind left to play for. It would be insane to raise with a draw in this spot, where the aggressor can literally show up with any two cards, and there's a player in the middle who was still uncapped getting to the turn.

Let's assume that V is *NOT* bluffing. What's he got? Is there a worse value hand that will call a 3B? Probably not. Is there a better value hand that will fold to a 3B? Ehhhh....maybe AQ finds a super-hero-fold if you 3B huge and UTG calls. It would seem really likely that you or UTG has a monster in that scenario.

You should also consider what UTG has here, when he calls next to act, not closing the action. He might have gotten in here with QJ or 44. We know nothing about him. But in a 6-way pot, he might have checked top 2P or bottom set when he's 2nd to act. He could be sand-bagging.

I dunno, man. It's a $hlt spot, and I don't like it. I wouldn't have gotten here this way. If you magically teleported me here and made me play it from here, I'd probably just call, with a plan to fold if UTG suddenly wakes up and takes an aggressive action. I'd be prepared to check-fold river if UTG bets huge.

If you 3B here, don't be surprised if UTG calls, or even raises. In either case, don't expect BTN to call with worse than KQ.

This would be an easier hand to play if we raised pre and / or led out for a PSB or over-bet on the flop, and checked turn.

OK Dango, time to put Doc out of his misery and give results.

What are the game flow reasons for not raising pre? Is one of the limpers (particularly UTG or UTG+1 limper) an OMC known for limp re-raising premiums pre? Is this the same reason you are not leading 20-25 on the flop?

It's not clear you did miss value. At least not because you didn't 3B turn or donk river. A worse hand is very unlikely to call a 3B on the turn. If you're going to donk river on a brick after V raises turn, you should just 3B the turn, which initiates a circular debate about whether or not that makes any sense (it doesn't).

You lost value by not raising pre, and not leading out on the flop, and not betting bigger on the turn. Had you done all that, V very likely would have called pre, called flop, and still raised turn. At which point, you can flat call and check river, and not worry about it.

i think reading into this action / sizing and thinking either player has you beat a signif amount of the time is wild lol

i would guess btn has a jack and utg has a draw or some kind of random pair thats drawing dead

is unclear to me if 3bing small to fold out utg's equity is better than calling and leading brick rivers (usually how we punish depolar raising ranges). id imagine theres a world where v never raise folds the turn and then feels compelled to call every brick river esp if you dont get greedy so maybe thats better? but i not really sure. i did read results and i think you should lead this river for like 10-30% of pot from the standpoint that when he raises 2.5x on drawy board ott ip its likely not a draw nearly as often as some kind of depolar value hand trying to buy free showdown / i guess charge people

doc you mean well but every one of these threads is the same thing. use less words esp if you're going to be wrong

if you view this situation the same as a srp where the flop goes x/x and someone raises the turn 70% of pot or whatever, then you may need to pay more attention to nuance. ranges are way wider in limped pots because theyre limped and its less money so people just care less.

pre i think id mix 50/50 between raising to 45-50 and checking in theoory. probably in practice raising outperforms in passive games where people are continuously limping anyways

I think sometimes we call wanting to keep another player in that is always folding anyway. Just focus on villain. I like the 3bet on the turn 100.

Now realizing that a $10 flop bet would have reduced the field or created action, so it might have been a good move.

You worry about folding villain, but I think you attack him while he thinks he’s good. Assuming he calls, now it looks natural for you to lead the river.

Calling villain aggro may mean something different to you than me, but if there’s any chance that villain will not take the rope, I’m betting.

Value is all I think about.
But in a limpfest free play OOP with $30 in the pot on the turn, I don’t expect much - what you did was fine.

Defo agree with not raising pre is missing value, but I think 3bet turn is good. Turn raises are usually very strong and rarely in my experience fold to re-raises.