$600 WSOP Deepstack - Near Bubble Hand

Fold pre

I think this river is probably a fold in most situations, given that your most likely value hand is Jx and trip jacks are never folding the river.

With your description of SB, if you don't think he's out of line, then certainly it is.

The fact that he's playing a wide range with his big stack is even more reason to fold pre. This close to the money you do not want to put yourself in situations where you're effectively guessing.

It actually matters if there is one hand or two left before the dinner break. If it is under a minute left then it makes it a perfect spot to raise. If there are 2 minutes left that won't be the reason to raise...

Assuming this could be the final hand before the break then the SB call means they have a big hand but not a monster or they would have 3-bet. Its almost as if the SB is thinking that if he doesn't hit his hand he will get away from it quickly so he won't be delayed into the break. The BB calling with 25 blinds also seems to indicate a decent hand.

Once we see the flop and SB leads out it is pretty clear they want to end it. While they can have QT, KT or T8s it is more likely they have hands like AJ/KJ/QJ/JT. I don't hate the flop call, but on donks SB will more likely have Jx than a PP < JJ. Most players don't donk on a flop that hits the raiser's range unless they don't want it to check through.

Its tough to fold on the flop but I might. If SB had donked before then its an easy call. But if this is the first time I might just fold thinking they have a J.

If you called and they showed their bluff then congrats...

The main reason to fold pre is because you will underrealize equity on future streets as a result of ICM pressure (this hand is marginal even without ICM). You don't want to get knocked out on the bubble so you have to play tighter.

The same equity realization problem applies on other streets too when you're facing aggressive actions from the bigger stack. Even the flop might be a fold multiway with ICM pressure. Turn is probably a fold with ICM.

By the river this is one of the cleanest run-outs you could get, and it still might be a fold. The turn 5 was a blank and the river jack doesn't change anything. You were already beat by a jack and the second jack just reduces possible value combos.

So if you didn't believe him on the flop and you didn't believe him on the turn, then the river doesn't really change anything. As played I wouldn't fault you for calling the river if you think he is abusing the bubble and over bluffing. This scenario just goes to show why you need to fold earlier in the hand though, because if you're wrong you're out on the bubble.

Fold pre with the big stack in the SB near the bubble. Let the big stack steal the blinds.

I agree with the comments. I don't play live, but my overriding feeling is we overplayed here. It's not worth the stress and not a great feeling if we exit the tourney with such a marginal holding.

Fold pre. On the flop I'm thinking he could have bluffs but I'm already wishing I'd gone for dinner. I'd likely call.

I would hate life and fold the turn, and the same on the river if I'd got there.

Ok so if we bluff catch we feel a warm glow but it doesn't make up for the gut wrenching feeling of going out under this circumstance.

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That's one thing you about ICM spots. The covering stack gets to put you in all kinds of tough spots, including donk leading where it never would in CeV spots.

That's why you don't steal blinds with junk and a medium stack on the bubble.

As played, I maybe call down, because he could be doing this with overcards or whatever.

If EV spot -

Raise 98o on button and call down on that runout with marginal +EV (solver +1bb to +2bb)

As icm spot -

98o is one of the hands we drop from our opening range when blinds have us covered

As played every street ev is so marginal that I expect we should be icm folding

What solver is that? I'm not familiar with it, but the screenshot says it's comparing 180 left vs 750 left? Not chip EV vs 760 left? Also the stack sizes look like they're different than the posted hand.

GTOGecko

They’ve only just released their first few icm stack sizes so I picked the one that had blind stacks above btn and able to exert icm pressure post

180/1000 left compared to 150/1000 paid in above compared to 750 left (no icm)

Not as many spots covered as GTOWiz but pretty good for a quick lookup

Further to above

I’ve been reviewing the different GTO phone apps to see if (i) any of them are useful as lookup tools (ie sanity checks) during a live break in mtts, and (ii) which if any of these tools start to incorporate AI for solves over the next year or so.

The main two I’m looking at are GTOGecko and GTORanges+ but will review Octopi and others when I have time.

There is no app that can crunch a precise spot postflop with icm, exact stack sizes, multi-way, population exploit adjustments etc but the tools are getting better and AI may eventually provide that holy grail ‘perfect’ fast/real-time solver in years to come. (When that happens, stop playing online.)

Until then we need to approximate using the tools available - and break down decisions into the component parts an app solver can analyse - like my analysis above.

Please feel free to add advice and input you can. I have no vested interest in any app but have spoken to the developers of each suite via email on several occasions. It’s an interesting space.

I would call down as played. His line with the lead and getting allin looks like he is bullying with a big stack.

What is villain representing? He is pretty much only representing trips or a boat. He doesn't have an overpair, black calling the button raise preflop. It looks like he is pressuring on the bubble. Seems like an easy call down. The way to pick up chips on the bubble and in the money is not playing scared.

Gotcha, 180 left with 150 paid is probably a fair enough approximation, but there's a significant difference between 25 BB effective vs 46. At 40 BB + it's a lot more difficult for the covering player to threaten stacks.

Anyway this spot is interesting, because as far as I know there is no solver capable of solving for multiway postflop ICM with hundreds of players remaining.

My intuition is that if you could solve with ICM, the preferred actions per street would probably be:

Preflop: Fold (preflop is solvable)
Flop: Call
Turn: Fold
River: Call

If I made the loose preflop open for a reason like the OP stated, I would probably fold turn with the bubble approaching. Your 2 pair and trips outs aren't even clean, and so many river cards will make it difficult to call off.

As played though if I I called turn I would likely feel compelled to call off on this river. Like DB says he's repping a fairly narrow range of value hands, and it's easy to get out of line bluffing here with all the potential missed open enders and gutshots.

Yeah, I think you have to call the river as played. He is representing trips or better. There are missed draws. He is going to shove anything without showdown value, putting you allin near the bubble.