$1/2 A’s up 1 orbit in vs aggro player on soaking wet board
$1/2. $300 max. 9 handed. Exactly 1 orbit in.
V ($300) in his 60’s sat down when I sat down. Have never seen him before. Has been aggro (3-4 opens) and using larger sizing ($15-20 RFI). Hasn’t limped yet. V is two seats to my right.
H ($300) BTN. Haven’t played a hand yet (1 orbit).
2 or 3 limps incl V, H has AQo (no spades) and goes $15. V calls, rando between V and H calls.
Flop ($40)
AsKcQs
X, x, H $15. V c, other folds.
Turn ($70)
AsKcQs Ks
X, H $25, V call. I easily rep AK and am not chopping with any A and behind (in EV) to any A with a spade.
River $120
AsKcQs Ks Td
V leads for $50. H?
9 Replies
Turn ($70)
AsKcQs Ks
X, H $25, V call. I easily rep AK and am not chopping with any A and behind (in EV) to any A with a spade.
You sure about that?
I think the turn bet is terrible. Did you actually think you were ahead of a random AX? Otherwise, it makes no sense.
Given reads, I think calling is probably really bad. You are basically praying to chop the pot. If you think this guy is capable of folding a straight or weak flush, then jamming might be the play. Otherwise, it's probably a disciplined fold.
You sure about that? I think the turn bet is terrible. Did you actually think you were ahead of a random AX? Otherwise, it makes no sense. Given reads, I think calling is probably really bad. You are basically praying to chop the pot. If you think this guy is capable of folding a straight or weak flush, then jamming might be the play. Otherwise, it's probably a disciplined fold
Hahhha!! Phucking spell check got me in there somehow. Obviously I AM chopping vs another A.
My thought on betting the turn was trying to buy a free showdown on the river.
Hahhha!! Phucking spell check got me in there somehow. Obviously I AM chopping vs another A.
My thought on betting the turn was trying to buy a free showdown on the river.
That makes more sense, haha.
I don't think betting turn to "buy a free showdown" is a good reason to bet. Your hand is extremely middle strength on an exceptionally nut-changing turn card, and I assume you would want to bet big with thick value and select bluffs and check a lot of the rest of your range back. It would be different if the board was AKJK and you COULD actually bet-fold to get thin value from a calling station, but you can't do that here.
Regardless of whether you were trying to get a free showdown, you didn't get one. You have a decent price to bluff-catch, but do we really think this guy is turning some kind of QT or 99s hand into a bluff just because he has opened three or four hands? He's still an unknown sixty-something $1/$2 player. I would assume your hand never wins and either jam or fold.
Flop I think I like a way bigger sizing, since most hands are inelastic.
Um...not sure why we're "bluffing" the turn w/showdown value. Makes no sense tbh. It's one of the worst turn cards to bet. I think I'm only betting flushes or better on the turn and not for this sizing. I guess we can bet AK/AA/KK/KQ/QQ type hands for this sizing.
River is an obvious fold?
We are never calling this river bet. We beat bluffs, but what bluffs are there that call the flop/turn???
As for shoving... V does have some flushes/boats and even with Jx, V might not even fold to a jam. So jamming seems to be a punt?
But against some people who is capable of folding flushes/st8s and even boats, jamming is profitable but I doubt a random villain can do it?
Not a fan of the turn bet, villains turn calling range should contain plenty of AX and QJ QT. So if u wanna value bet an ace u need villain to be calling QJ QT so u want unblock that region. You’re blocking the very hands u need to get called by.
Seems like a great hand to x back turn and bluff catch river.
AP it seems like this guy has a straight. We do have some nice boat blockers… i would probably just fold but if you wanna make a big move I’ll walk with you…
Results: H folds.
I don’t mind checking (not cbetting) when multiway. Yes, it’s 2pair, but the board is very dynamic. If I was going to bet, I would pot the flop. You’re not looking for a pot sweetener here, and everyone is calling everything for 15. No info gained.
Your bet sizing is so small, I might float J4 and what a scandal that would be. Honestly, in my entire life, I don’t think I’ve bet a quarter on the turn. You are putting no pressure on villain.
As played, villain knows you have something, but you have given him every opportunity to get there, so I think you’re beat.
My opinion of this situation is that I’m not betting and trying to get to showdown cheaply with my showdown value. My other option, should I decide, would be to pot every street until I meet resistance or they fold.
I don’t like what you did, no offense - but you would go high on my floating list. The people I avoid are making meaningful bets with the threat of more to come.
Not sure but feels like you should get straights and most if not all flushes to fold to a jam. Some players might even fold a boat occasionally. But...
Got to be careful of ranges when a guy has VPIPed 40% though, even over small sample. You'll have to decide whether that means (1) he has lots of Kx and (2) whether he actually folds those hands.
Obviously your equity has gone over a cliff on the turn, I don't mind the turn bet, should get immediate folds from Ax, even from v loose player.
Flop maybe size up?
Grunch:
PRE - raise bigger. They're not limping in to fold.
FLOP - check back or bet bigger. Think I'd like to bet bigger, with a plan to check back a lot of turns if we get called.
TURN - Think we can barrel. Not sure about the size. Could see arguments for going bigger, though it starts to feel like we're bluffing to rep AK if we bomb it, and hard to find the worse hands that call.
RIVER - so...I think this is always going to be relatively thin value, which on this board could be JX or trip Ks, and maybe worse. I don't think he's doing this with boats.
I think if we call we're mostly losing or at best chopping. When V takes this size, I really want to turn our hand into a bluff by raising huge to rep a boat.
We have $245 left behind? I think I'd rip it in and expect him to snap fold anything that isn't exactly KJ, and even KJ might fold, when we could have AA/AK/KQ/QQ.
