USA Goes to War Against Iran
Time for a dedicated thread to the war.
How long will it last and what will be the probable outcome?
If the deal manages to go from tentative through negations and become agreement, the big risk is that Iran does to Trump II like North Korea did to Trump I: Develop their nuclear weapons and missile program to fruition, while the Trump administrations pretends nothing is happening because it would make their own negotiations look bad.
As for the tentative agreement itself, it is really hard to see any US gains from the war in it. The nuclear weapons framework remains as before, there are no concessions from Iran on regional conflicts, there are limits on US sanctions and military buildup but not on Iran's, there is withdrawal of US forces, and for negations to proceed to agreement significant funds will have to be released and rebuild programs for Iran established.
I'm hesitant to doom and gloom it completely, but that is more down to the view that continued war is probably unlikely to achieve anything better, simply due to the strategic flip-flopping and general stupidity in the current administration during the war so far.
Other than that, there is is still a significant way to go before this is agreed upon in negotiation, signed and (most importantly) adhered to. I'll believe an agreement when it becomes reality.
It should also probably be mentioned that as it stands right now, this deal is a catastrophic strategic loss for Israel's current foreign and security policies. Which is perhaps for its current government a deserved loss should it become the reality, but still leaves the country in a bit of a pickle.
If the deal manages to go from tentative through negations and become agreement, the big risk is that Iran does to Trump II like North Korea did to Trump I: Develop their nuclear weapons and missile program to fruition, while the Trump administrations pretends nothing is happening because it would make their own negotiations look bad.
By the time Obama left office, North Korea had over 10 nuclear weapons already. Strange framing of "develop it to fruition under Trump" when it was already a big fruit salad of nukes before Trump entered office.
As for the tentative agreement itself, it is really hard to see any US gains from the war in it. The nuclear weapons framework remains as before, there are no concessions from Iran on regional conflicts, there are limits on US sanctions and military buildup but not on Iran's, there is withdrawal of US forces, and for negations to proceed to agreement significant funds will have to be released and rebuild programs for Iran established.
I'm hesitant to doom and gloom it completely, but that is more down to the view that continued war is probably unlikely to achieve anything better, simply due to the strategic flip-flopping and general stupidity in the current administration during the war so far.
What we have is the severe degradation of Iran's abilities and death of much of their leadership, many months of setback on nuclear, followed by a return to the status quo - with nuclear back on the table rather than Iran enriching. Hard to frame that as a bad thing unless you're trying. And Trump's enemies know he's willing to kidnap or kill leaders that displease him.
It should also probably be mentioned that as it stands right now, this deal is a catastrophic strategic loss for Israel's current foreign and security policies. Which is perhaps for its current government a deserved loss should it become the reality, but still leaves the country in a bit of a pickle.
Why is it a strategic loss? Apart from any "regime change in Iran goal", it seems like it guarantees greater level of peace and reduced funding for Israel's enemies - if adhered to
It’s further entrenched the Iranian regime. Anti regime Iranians were thrown under the bus. Trump said help was on the way and did nothing. The chsmces of this regime falling are much lower now and Han when Trump took office. North Korea was really Trumps best case of foreign meddling. He achieved nothing and they developed Misael’s with the ability to hit allies when Trump was president. But he didn’t mske thibgs much worse like he’s done in the Middle East.
By the time Obama left office, North Korea had over 10 nuclear weapons already. Strange framing of "develop it to fruition under Trump" when it was already a big fruit salad of nukes before Trump entered office.What we have is the severe degradation of Iran's abilities and death of much of their leadership, many months of setback on nuclear, followed by a return to the status q
I don't understand this many months of setback take.
If it is really just many months, you shouldn't even mention it at all.
How is it possible to both have ''2 months away from nuclear weapon'' and ''they have been obliterated ''(not my words) and still just be setback to many months, and still have the guts to frame this as a win.
Can't make this **** up.
reduced funding for Israel's enemies - if adhered to
I thought they removed this from the deal?
I can't see a single positive aspect of that war.
Epstein when?
If the deal manages to go from tentative through negations and become agreement, the big risk is that Iran does to Trump II like North Korea did to Trump I: Develop their nuclear weapons and missile program to fruition, while the Trump administrations pretends nothing is happening because it would make their own negotiations look bad.As for the tentative agreement itself, it is
Sounds right to me. Maybe we have few more 'iterations' to go through but quite likely to end here
What's your view on china becoming more significant and maybe eventually replacing the usa as the key super power in the region? Any thoughts on the Turkey/Pakistan grouping?
War's over folks. Looks like we have peace in our time.
Giving Iran $300 billion is what, 175 times more than Obama gave them for a worse deal than the JCPOA? Alright then. Good job, Doyle.
They no longer have a navy or air force. Hezbollah and Hamas have been severely neutered. Irans rocket building infrastructure has been destroyed. The country is experiencing hyper inflation. Different fractions are fighting each other within the country. Most of their leadership has been eliminated. Their nuclear facilities have been blown to bits. They have lost billions during the blockade. Gulf nations are now closer to Israel.
Does that sound like stronger than ever?
Im in the camp (probably the minority camp) that this war is mostly overrated in terms in assessing some potential global catastrophe. The biggest threat Iran poses has and always will.be the people living in and around the IRGC.
Congrats to Iran over their big historic win over USA!#1. Normally we only lose to superpowers like Vietnam or Afghanistan, but these plucky Iranians really stepped up their game.
Im in the camp (probably the minority camp) that this war is mostly overrated in terms in assessing some potential global catastrophe. The biggest threat Iran poses has and always will.be the people living in and around the IRGC.
The problem is the United States has been trying to shape global politics for decades now and we have absolutely nothing to show for it other than foreign governments that don't trust us and new generations of people from other countries that despise us.
They no longer have a navy or air force. Hezbollah and Hamas have been severely neutered. Irans rocket building infrastructure has been destroyed. The country is experiencing hyper inflation. Different fractions are fighting each other within the country. Most of their leadership has been eliminated. Their nuclear facilities have been blown to bits. They have lost billions duri
More money, sanctions dropped, and a global display of why they don’t even need nukes. Hosing the image of USA#1 is just a bonus.
But hey, if you’re happy to be paying for this out of your pocket both ways then good for you I guess. Perhaps now you’ll find time to finally explain the Elway stuff.
You people don’t even want to wait for the deal specifics to drop before calling total victory for Iran? Does anyone know what’s in the deal?
They deserve a lot more than 300b. How many billions of their infrastructure did the US destroy in recent wars? How many trillions have sanctioned cost them? How can you even calculate repayment for 100s of schoolchildren slaughtered?
Liberals itt showing themselves to be just as bloodthirsty as the MAGAs.
Im not calling victory for anyone. It was a totally avoidable cluster **** that resulted in people dying and nothing at all gained for it.
It’s obvious Iran is decimated or else they would never make a deal. Knowing this the US and Israel should have continued the bombing campaign. Trump should not only let Israel destroy Hezbollah, they should join in the fight. Like I said earlier, the US got down to the Iranian 20 and punted.
This is a huge set back for Israel. Trumps popularity over there must be plummeting.
mong just wants to see people murdered, in it for the love of the game.
They deserve a lot more than 300b. How many billions of their infrastructure did the US destroy in recent wars? How many trillions have sanctioned cost them? How can you even calculate repayment for 100s of schoolchildren slaughtered?
Liberals itt showing themselves to be just as bloodthirsty as the MAGAs.
Name a single liberal itt that was in favor of us bombing iran.
