$2/3/6 turn sizing after good flop and turn. Line check.
$2/3/6 uncapped. Three blind game.
H $1.6k. EP. MAWG. V probably views H as a decent ABC reg.
V 50’s WG. ~$400. A reg and probably a winning reg. No idea why he’s short stacked as it’s a match stack game and the big stack is $4-5k. Have never seen him play short before but don’t know how he got there.
H opens the $25 w/ AdQx. Folds to V in BB or Straddle, don’t remember which. V flats.
Flop ($52)
9TQddd
V x, H $25, V c. Thinking HU here with my actual hand TPTK + NFD plus tons of hands V can call with that are dominated.
Turn ($102)
9TQddd Qx
V x, H? I mean that’s a pretty nutty turn card for me. Have to bet here (right?). Question is how much?
6 Replies
Flop bet seems kinda big for a monotone board.
I don't mind betting again on the turn. Might be worth trying to figure out what he has that flats pre and x/c's flop that will x/c again. Probably not a good idea to bet huge.
He's not all that capped here. He can have some flopped straights. Some flushes. Some 2P that boated up.
Guessing you bet and he jammed on you.
Like the way you played it
Bet 75 on the turn
Kinda a standard 3/4 pot bet they have seen before and usually means business.
Lot of aces are calling. The 2nd queen makes it unlikely that anyone has a queen, so you’re probably better than he thinks. He can’t be too raise happy with a flush, because the board paired and you know his flush is not the nuts.
I would bet 25p OTF
AP probably bet 33p
You really don’t want dominated Xd hands to fold out here
Flop: agree with others that H should bet smaller on monochrome board.
AP Turn: what does V continue with here on the flop? I think it's 2P+ and made flushes. Maybe he can have case-Queen stuff like KdQx, QxJx or perhaps AxJd. H has QQ and nut flushes.
So a H big value bet on the turn targets a thin range I think. The rest of it I think is head of us, as weird as it seems because we have a great hand and the redraw.
Of course, a river diamond kills action and a paired board could be a chop. If we dominate V, the turn is the opportunity to get value. If we are behind, we are going to get xr jammed on and get way under 2-1 to call with 100 in pot and V having 350 behind.
It's actually a much tougher spot than it appears. I prefer to x here. If the River bricks, V may blast off when behind. I just don't see many scenarios where he will pay us off on the turn with a dominated hand. When behind, we get the wrong price if he xr jams.
Results: H bets $100, V folds. Thought V could have a lot of hands that could stand the heat, QX, JX, KdX. Then river jam for a PSB on ATC except maybe a K.
Results: H bets $100, V folds. Thought V could have a lot of hands that could stand the heat, QX, JX, KdX. Then river jam for a PSB on ATC except maybe a K.
Worth noting that V's BB flatting range is going to have some SC's that may have flopped a flush. Probably not KJdd for the stone nuts, but he could have J8dd, which is effectively the same.
He could also have hands like QT and Q9 that wouldn't necessarily donk or x/r flop or donk turn, but would be giddy to x-jam after you bet big.
Hard for him to have many of the hands we want to target for value when he just flats in the BB. And hard for those hands to call a big bet on this board. If he's flatting with KXo, QX, and JX, and check-calling a 1/2 pot c-bet on the flop, most of those hands start to over-fold on the turn, almost no matter what the turn card is.
Maybe if you go $20 on flop and $40 on turn, he'd call again, but even then, he'd have to have a hand with reasonable equity. His range on the turn would seem pretty split between monsters and dust. Hard to extract value in that situation.
