USA Goes to War Against Iran
Time for a dedicated thread to the war.
How long will it last and what will be the probable outcome?
Sounds like these christians need to get their **** together.
Kelhus,We're reaching the "told you so" phase of our discussion here where I predicted defeat for the US. The MoU has been released and it's pretty much utter humiliation for the US. But I want you to understand that it's not because I'm some IRCG sappy as you have suggested but rather because all of the analysis I saw predicted most of what has happened and it seemed like soli
which analysts did you follow or which ones persuaded you the most?
What's the line on Trump as top vs bottom in the Iran deal? Iran media + Axios is a bit thin.
Trump top: 30%
Reach-around: 20%
Trump bottom: 50%
You have different odds Luckbox?
Mearsheimer is good. The MIT missile guy Ted Postol I think his name is. Some various retired colonels who started appearing in my feed. Most of it initially at least was all the same: 1) Iran is a missile fortress that is invulnerable to ground invasion, 2) their missiles are too good and therefore we can't do anything to prevent from closing the strait, 3) closing the strait will put immense pressure on the US, 4) Iran has been preparing for this war for 30 years.
There are a bunch of these guys on youtube though all saying the same thing most of them I just discovered as a result of this conflict.
https://www.euronews.com/2026/06/17/read...
It's available from tons of sources
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles.
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States shall lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.
Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralisation of mines by Iran.
The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, while ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.
The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary.
The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.
The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.
The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement.
Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles.
The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.
We sure showed them, eh?
Hard to see what the US gets out of it that they didn't have before, so it's quite the climbdown.
I think you are underestimating how problematic and destructive the Ayatollah Twelver ideology and proxy paramilitaries were and still are to a lesser extent.
And if the future has a lot less of both of this, it will be very +EV for everyone.
Whatever the merits of the JCPOA, it legitimized Iran using proxies to spread its apocalyptic ideology and destabilize the Middle East. And a future with a lot less of these will be great for everyone.
I think you are underestimating how problematic and destructive the Ayatollah Twelver ideology and proxy paramilitaries were and still are to a lesser extent.And if the future has a lot less of both of this, it will be very +EV for everyone. Whatever the merits of the JCPOA, it legitimized Iran using proxies to spread its apocalyptic ideology and destabilize the Middle East
Of course the agreement doesn't mention any of that, but we'll have to see.
Hard to see what the US gets out of it that they didn't have before, so it's quite the climbdown.
Yeah it looks like Trump’s famous Art of the Deal at work again. The one thing is Iran agrees to never pursue nuclear weapons but given that’s contingent on trust and faith, it seems like we’ve gained very little if anything.
I’ll admit I was wrong and Trump got worked way harder than I thought he would.
Still a lot of time for the deal to fall through but this is a terrible indication of where negotiations stand.
Negotiations sounded tough......
US....
OK, we'll take that out, but you have to sign on Sunday
Ok, we'll take that out as well, but you have to sign on Sunday
Ok, geez, we'll take that out too, but you have to at least digitally sign on Sunday
FFs, we will take that out, but you have to let us say that you digitally signed on Sunday
For Christ's sake, that will be removed and we will sign on Friday
What??? Lebanon was not part of this?? Ok, OK, we'll put that in. I'll tell Bibi
Iran...
see ya all in Switzerland....maybe....
Negotiations sounded tough......US....OK, we'll take that out, but you have to sign on SundayOk, we'll take that out as well, but you have to sign on SundayOk, geez, we'll take that out too, but you have to at least digitally sign on SundayFFs, we will take that out, but you have to let us say that you digitally signed on SundayFor Christ's sake, that will be removed and we wil
How did the US lose this deal? What were their initial goals?
Initial goals were to enact regime change, curtail nuclear capabilities, and reduce their military capacity both domestically and through their proxies. We did severely degrade their military, defenses and proxies but everything else remains unachieved.
We’re giving them a lot of money but we did break a lot of things. Although I’m sure sure most of the money will make its way to the IRGC instead of the civilians.
Can’t lose if you don’t have any goals to begin with
Yeah, I was just calling pokerfan a ****ing idiot.
Kelhus,We're reaching the "told you so" phase of our discussion here where I predicted defeat for the US. The MoU has been released and it's pretty much utter humiliation for the US. But I want you to understand that it's not because I'm some IRCG sappy as you have suggested but rather because all of the analysis I saw predicted most of what has happened and it seemed like soli
To be fair, a lot of this is on Trump’s incompetence as a deal maker (despite his reputation as a deal maker with his base) and the American public’s lack of appetite for war. And to be fair, you we’re probably speaking with this in mind.
Why is he an idiot? Most of his posts have actually been fairly reasonable and well constructed, especially compared to the average poster’s contribution. And as bad as this deal is, Iran is still in a horrible position, regardless of how the media tries to spin things.
Initial goals were to enact regime change, curtail nuclear capabilities, and reduce their military capacity both domestically and through their proxies. We did severely degrade their military, defenses and proxies but everything else remains unachieved.We’re giving them a lot of money but we did break a lot of things. Although I’m sure sure most of the money will make its way
The US isn't giving them any money - the leader of Iran was killed, Iran "says" they will stop making nuclear weapons, and their military was severely limited after the war. The crux of the whole deal is if Iran will straighten **** out and stop threatening nuclear capabilities - the allies can leverage the money for so long but at some point the money will be fully given and we'll see if Iran keeps their word. If not just repeat the process.
The US isn't giving them any money - the leader of Iran was killed, Iran "says" they will stop making nuclear weapons, and their military was severely limited after the war. The crux of the whole deal is if Iran will straighten **** out and stop threatening nuclear capabilities - the allies can leverage the money for so long but at some point the money will be fully given and w
Right but we were already at that point before the war. Iran saying they won’t pursue nuclear weapons is like a drug addict swearing he’s going to use your $5 to buy a hotdog and not crack.
Right but we were already at that point before the war. Iran saying they won’t pursue nuclear weapons is like a drug addict swearing he’s going to use your $5 to buy a hotdog and not crack.
We haven't really attacked them in this manner - Obama took a softer approach that didn't work. Whether this works or not we'll see - it's the best attempt we've taken in keeping them in line for some time.
