2-5 AQ

Snap fold.

You overrepped your hand with big sizes on monotone board.

Then board paired V donks jam.

V has 0 bluffs, we are always beat here unless V is total newbie and overvalue hands like crazy.

V minimum has a slowplayed nutted flush or river boat that she chased 2streets until it paired up now.

I agree with this. I would bet flop and turn small so she can continue with hands that have little to no equity.

A river overbet from a female rec is extremely scary. We have a great hand to hero with but I’m not sure she’s bluffing much here and we don’t beat much value.

Hello BOB
A bet out of the blue

They always have it
Even if it wasn’t a scary female rec

One of the marks of a good player is recognizing that though we put a lot of money in the middle, it’s time to fold.

I think that this is really hard for people with a strong hand and previous investment. Personally, I would fist bump this lady and buy her a drink if she shows me a bluff.

I agree with you guys, I didn’t get enough sleep the night before. I wasn’t playing my best and I convinced myself that the way it was played she could just have thought her A was good. I would say that as a rec player she may not even think that way about the A hitting the river.

IMO she did play her hand very risky, so many action killing cards could have hit and when she shoved I could have had a boat. From the sounds of it if you guys were on the table she wouldn’t have gotten paid by you.

She flopped the nut flush :/ and slow played it and got lucky the river was an A because if I didn’t hit trips on the river and I was only left with a pair of A I would have folded.

Grunch:

PRE - how many limps? Three? I'd think we could/should raise bigger than $25 over that many limps, especially when they limp from EP. They're not limping to fold to a smallish raise. Probably want to make it at least $30, if not $35 or even $40.

FLOP - think we could just check this back. V isn't folding a flush, set, or 2P. It's not impossible she limp-called with AK.

If you must bet, you should bet very small on this monotone, ace-high flop. Think about the range you're hoping will call. When you bet big, you're folding out the worst parts of her range and forcing her to only continue with the strongest parts.

Our hand is somewhere between thin value and a bluff catcher. Wouldn't want to bloat the pot by c-betting. Would rather check back and see what develops on the turn.

TURN - as played, once she calls our big flop bet, I definitely want to check back turn and evaluate on the river.

RIVER - muck, and mentally thank her for letting you off the hook.

I'd never expect a worse hand or a bluff here, from a recreational player, though there's always the low frequency random spaz that happens with recs at low stakes.

What if she has the king of spades only? I can get value from her chasing the nut flush draw. In this case she flopped it and I should have folded the river but I think she would call bets behind with Ks.

I'm flat out amazed she bet AI once the board paired. I felt sure she had a low set till the river.

Getting the reveal confirms she is a rec player if there was any doubt.

She got very fortunate that I tripped on the river instead of boating up and she got fortunate an action killing card for me did not hit like a 4th spade.

So...I take it you mean, what if she only has the Ks on the flop, some KsXx hand?

First, we ought to have some sense of what her range looks like when she limp-calls pre-flop. We'll either have seen her play long enough to know if she's playing too loose-passive, or we'll have seen some showdowns. Even if she's just joined the table, we might make some player-type assumptions based on her demographics, while waiting for the info needed to develop a more specific read.

You noted she's a rec. She didn't buy in for the max, which would seem to confirm her rec status. You noticed she's female. I imagined her being...how do I say this politely..."matronly".

We can reasonably infer she's loose-passive pre, but more than likely fit-or-fold post. She probably isn't opening any KXs combos, which means she can have a lot of them in her limp-calling range.

The question you're asking is about KXo combos. If she's limp-calling with KXs, would you think she'd also limp-call with a lot of KXo, or fold a lot of those?

If she's too timid to raise KQs or KJs, I'd think it's reasonable she's probably over-folding KXo combos that are KTo or worse. Maybe the worst KX combo she'd play is K9o, and probably only from the CO or BTN.

I'd also consider if she limps in with AK. Some recs do. It's "a drawing hand", after all (that's sarcasm, for anyone who doesn't recognize it).

But, if she does have some KsXx in her range, she's not folding it on the flop. If you bet flop, and check back turn, you'll be guessing when she leads out on the river. Though, we can probably still fold, because these types don't bluff enough, even holding a blocker to the nuts, but otherwise having no SDV.

If you check back the flop, what is she doing on the turn? Probably leading out with her nut flush. If you bet small on the flop, like really small, she might x/r, and we can get away from our hand there and then, confident that we're beat. But we lose less just checking back and over-folding when she bets turn (because she'll likely bet big).

She's not folding the Ks no matter how much you bet on the flop. She's not raising when you bet huge. She might x/r over a small bet. She'll almost certainly lead turn when you check back flop. You can see where this leads.

Yeah, she might call flop and turn bets with the naked Ks, but she's not calling the river if she doesn't make the nuts. You really don't have good implied odds to bet with AhQs. You actually have reverse IO's. If another spade rolls off, you'll have the 2nd nuts and lose more. Unless you go runner-runner to boat up, you'll often regret betting flop and turn. You shouldn't be looking to play a massive pot with just TP2K.

Understand - this isn't just about the flop being monotone. Low stakes recs will limp-call with all sorts of AXs and AXo combos pre. Any ace-high flop could potentially make an opponent aces-up (or a flopped set with some low-mid PP). They won't always fast-play on dry-static board textures. They usually won't, and will slow-play more often than not. Never discount a low-stakes rec showing up with AK that was slow-played pre.

AhQs is basically a bluff-catcher on this board. By betting big on flop and turn, you effectively turned it into a bluff. As a default line, I play ace-high boards as over-bet or check when I'm HU and IP as the PFR. TP2K on a monotone flop is definitely a check, not an over-bet.

A useful heuristic for monotone flops - the turn / river will be another card of that suit, or pair the board something like 70%-80% of the time. We should fast-play our best flopped flushes, and hang on with our flopped sets, because the run-out is fairly likely to change the complexion of the hand dramatically.

I'd feel much better going bet-bet-bet with any flush or set, or even 2P here. TPTK / TP2K just isn't strong enough to take to war.

Recently had a fishy opponent turn the 2nd NF on me. He x/c'd flop, x/c'd turn, then donk-over-bet-jammed the river.

Wasn't a paired board. But still, he only had the 2nd NF.

They're fish. They do fishy things. They jam with strong but not nutted hands so they don't have to decide what to do if they check and we bet.

I'd be more surprised by a flopped set. After x/c'ing the whole way, I'd think she'd continue trapping when the ace pairs on the river. Hero was repping a strong hand the whole way with his bet sizing.

She let him off the hook. When they do that, we just need to swim away.

Asking this not for you to answer here, but rather to nudge you to ask yourself, and find the answer.

Is this the line you would have taken with any combo that would have boated up on the river?

Fish make a lot of mistakes. But something a pro noted in a recent video - they seem fairly good at intuitively understanding when an opponent's story makes sense or it doesn't.

To me, your line looks like a bluff or thin value betting for protection, not a made hand or a set/2P praying for the board to pair.

I think fast playing strong hands like sets is overall good. I probably would have played it the same as a set. If I had a set and didn’t boat up on the river I might fold because I can’t think of a worse hand she would bet for value like that. Whereas at least at the time I thought it might be possible that when she hit trip A she might be good. I think in hindsight she wouldn’t have shoved with a worse A on that board.

I think if I flopped a set on monotone board and my opponent check called the flop and then they checked called the turn and the river was a blank and they checked I would check back because maybe they hit a sneaky flush and were slow playing or it sounds like they were on a flush draw that bricked and I won’t be called by worse.

My point was, I don't think you'd take this same line with a flopped set or flush. Your line looks like thin value or a bluff, hoping V will fold, not a flush hoping she'll call, or a set hoping to fill up.

Why are we betting so big on the flop?

For value and protection, she checked on a monotone board. When she calls she could have a flush or she could have a flush draw. I feel most of the time when they check they don’t have a flush but this time she did.

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You have the Qs so you really can’t get much protection. If she folds out a small pair with a spade that actually pretty bad for you. Yes she has 2 outs to a set, but she also could hit a spade and lose more money. Also u win the amount she calls on the flop. In general you want your opponent to continue with 2nd best hands, especially second best hands that can improve to hands that still lose to you. If she folds out AX with no spade that’s also pretty bad for you.

Of course the bigger you bet, the tighter their calling range.
When she calls u said her range is now flushes and flush draws. I think you filtered her too much. I would like to bet a size where she calls any AX, any PP with spade, any pair on the board. not just flushes and flush draws.