USA Goes to War Against Iran
Time for a dedicated thread to the war.
How long will it last and what will be the probable outcome?
I mean, probably. That dude sucks and has made my life worse. Was forced to listen to him ramble for an hour today, which has probably made me more deranged than I was previously.
weak. anything trump signs has no value tho I expect we will be at it before long. and yes america does seem to be giving them money I just read the 14 point plan. they pledged 300 billion dollars to rebuild iran with allies. its likely stuff they can profit off of but its still aid. The fact they are offering reparations makes me think this peice of paper will not be of much importance in the future.
Negotiations sounded tough......US....OK, we'll take that out, but you have to sign on SundayOk, we'll take that out as well, but you have to sign on SundayOk, geez, we'll take that out too, but you have to at least digitally sign on SundayFFs, we will take that out, but you have to let us say that you digitally signed on SundayFor Christ's sake, that will be removed and we wil
Are you just trying to level yourself? The initial goals?? It depends. What day are you referring to? Give me a date and I can go back in the news feeds and find out what the goals were on that day.
the goal was to steal the resources and women of the country. it was an epic failure but the war is not over. it never will be over until the Epstein Empire is destroyed.
Iran is in a stronger position than before bc they showed that their missile fortress strategy (as Luckbox has repeatedly predicted) works exceptionally well. they showed incredible intelligence and foresight to forego pursuing a nuclear weapon and opting instead to go for the fortress.
and now they have extracted concessions in the form of sanctions relief, cash payouts, control of the Hormuz, and successful linking of Lebanon to the MOU.
ofc its not over as the predatory Ameri-Israeli Empire will continue to break terms and use mass murder and sabotage to attempt to loot the country of its wealth, resources, and ofc its women and children.
I mean there’s only 1 reason Iran would have a nuclear program and that is to build a weapon. They aren’t interested in the pursuit of science or developing an energy source to benefit the population. There’s only 1 singular goal. So allowing them to have a nuclear program at all is just admission that we are going to allow them to develop nuclear warheads.
Trump: I’m in no rush to make a deal
Trump: I will only make a deal if it’s the best deal
Trump: I’m the best deal maker in chief
Trump: Iran is begging me to make a deal
Trump: hey guys, you don’t have to concede anything, and we’ll give you $300 billion, but can I announce this deal will be signed on my birthday? Yes? Awesome
Trump: hey guys, I know you didn’t sign on my birthday, can I at least tell boats they can start their engines and use your strait immediately but we can sign next Sunday? Yes? Awesome
Trump: hey guys, I know the strait is still closed, and that’s totally ok, but can we still sign next Sunday?
Greatest negotiator and leader in American history
Idk why you pay so much attention to Trump and what he says when we have years of evidence that shows you should do the exact opposite.
Trump: the Obama deal was a horrible deal. What kind of stupid person gives Iran 150 billion?
Trump: hey guys, here’s 300 billion
“Just ignore stuff, guys. Caring about things is cringe.”
I mean there’s only 1 reason Iran would have a nuclear program and that is to build a weapon. They aren’t interested in the pursuit of science or developing an energy source to benefit the population. There’s only 1 singular goal. So allowing them to have a nuclear program at all is just admission that we are going to allow them to develop nuclear warheads.
This is weird bc all the intelligence agencies and the inspectors said they weren't pursuing a weapon.
Not that it matter, they have every right to build one anyway.
We haven't really attacked them in this manner - Obama took a softer approach that didn't work. Whether this works or not we'll see - it's the best attempt we've taken in keeping them in line for some time.
300 billion from the GCC's for infrastructure/reparations means that the Iranian citizens will learn that you can fight the West and your life actually gets better. This is a massive win for the IRGC. All of the momentum with the protests, all of Israel's plans for regime change go up in smoke with this, hence why it's so unpopular there.
It also frees up 100% of oil revenue (now unsanctioned) to go to building up proxies and improving the drone/ballistic missile program.
Added to this, it only takes an hour and a few drones to reclose the strait, so if any of this doesn't play out according to Iran's demands, they can always go back to the blockade and the massive leverage that led Trump to take this deal. The SPR hasn't been this low since the 1980s, and the US is continuing to draw 1 million barrels/day even with a MOU signed.
The mistake was attempting any of this in the first place. If you can't put boots on the ground, you are actually weak. Murdering people isn't an effective negotiating tactic in geopolitics, although it might work with mobsters.
Why would Trump care if the US "loses" on the deal when the main purpose was for him and his friends to make a ton of money off the stock market while taxpayer money goes to Iran?
Kelhus,We're reaching the "told you so" phase of our discussion here where I predicted defeat for the US. The MoU has been released and it's pretty much utter humiliation for the US. But I want you to understand that it's not because I'm some IRCG sappy as you have suggested but rather because all of the analysis I saw predicted most of what has happened and it seemed like soli
You are certainly in the poll position as far as predicting the future goes. But I would say to it too soon to declare total victory yet. ME peace deals have a tendency to go sideways very quick.
And one of the awesome things about the United States is even when they lose they still tend to win in the longer term. I still would not be super surprised if sometime in the near future:
a) Fighting resumes
and/or
b) Iran ends up with some form of govt that isn't the IRI and it isn't directing Arab proxy paramilitaries to occupy and attack other nations in their interests while chanting "Death to the USA"
the goal was to steal the resources and women of the country. it was an epic failure but the war is not over. it never will be over until the Epstein Empire is destroyed.Iran is in a stronger position than before bc they showed that their missile fortress strategy (as Luckbox has repeatedly predicted) works exceptionally well. they showed incredible intelligence and foresigh
I think it had little to do with their missiles and entirely to do with the mid term elections and the straight which they didn't need missiles to block. Elections are the downside of democracy. in the good old days you kept the pressure going even if it was unpopular because it was the smart thing to do for negotiations . I wouldn't be surprised if after the election its back to work.
Weak from the states but I wouldn't call it an Iranian victory they lost their entire conventional military and are now more deeply controlled by totalitarians . textbook Wikipedia inconclusive entry
I think it had little to do with their missiles and entirely to do with the mid term elections and the straight which they didn't need missiles to block.
ofc missiles had a lot to do with it. but you inadvertently bring up a good point about the effectiveness of their naval doctrine. the foresight and capability to prepare tons of small fast naval drones and boats hidden all over the coast was amazing. it worked exceptionally well.
they lost their entire conventional military
lol
The wild card in all of this is Israel.
Israel was not party to the MOU, nor did it sign anything. Israel will only honor the MOU as much as they feel it is in their interests to do so. And if the US ever cuts Israel off and it becomes an actual pariah state, it may decide it is no longer incentivized to hold back at all.
For those that want the MOU to hold and turn into an actual peace treaty, it would actually be advantageous not to cut Israel off and make it a pariah.
ofc missiles had a lot to do with it. but you inadvertently bring up a good point about the effectiveness of their naval doctrine. the foresight and capability to prepare tons of small fast naval drones and boats hidden all over the coast was amazing. it worked exceptionally well.
lol
i would say there "foresight" is because its all they are really capable of so they lucked into that doctrine unfortunately for their people . its not the 1990's anymore and war is won with drones now but no one believed this since 3 years ago. I would say congratulating them for resorting to guerilla warfare and self sacrifice/annihilation before any war even started with a country of 50+million is a choice. It should just be their fall back option not their entire plan. Having to starve their people and tank their economy by closing the strait is quite cowardly without even trying to fight conventionally even if its the smart thing to do. I think if they were vs a stronger advisory with full control over their own country it wouldn't work anyway. It might still not work out for them because as he said Israel. and trump breaks treatys like every week
Peter Zeihan does a geopolitical strategy show on Youtube that I listen to. He has been saying for years that drones were the future of warfare and Iran's were the gold standard. And he has said the US was being negligent not investing more resources into drones and drone defense.
He could have been wrong I guess, but I would say it is not fair to say Iran "lucked" into an effective strategic option. People were noticing what was going on, just not the people making decisions for our military.
Zeihan says that Ukraine currently has the best drones and drone defense (necessity mother of invention), and the US is still far behind but at least has started playing the game. He also says to watch out for Japan, who is innovating new technologies, although their focus is containing China and is not going to get involved at all in wars in Europe and West Asia.
wow ok expert opinion itt iran and ukraine good at drones also watch out for inscrutable japanese technologies
I still would not be super surprised if sometime in the near future ... Iran ends up with some form of govt that isn't the IRI and it isn't directing Arab proxy paramilitaries to occupy and attack other nations in their interests while chanting "Death to the USA"
Iran had a government like that in 1953 and the US & British govts tore it down out of imperialist greed and installed their proxy govt headed by the Shah.
It's amusing how people like to spin our involvement in resource (oil) rich foreign territories.
Venezuela was not an international threat. The intervention there was all about the oil.
It's just bullying. Taking **** because the power to take it exists. There is no pretense of morality beyond the law of the jungle .... might makes right.
