Flopped set vs competent TAG
1/3 Call 5 only 9 handed
We're at the best table but in the worst seat. V1 has been battling us all night. We've run wel
Result:
Spoiler
I just thought this guy was someone who could triple off with spade draws and I have no idea what bluffs I have in this spot ..I guess naked ♠ ♠, I check river and V checks back losing saying he had A4s no ♠, was also thinking about all the AX hands I have here that want to play this as a check-call down.
You need to work on your ranging of opponents.
What spade draws do you think he has that just flat call / don't 3B pre, but raise flop and barrel turn, on this board?
As the PFR, you can have AA or just a ton of AX here. You could bet-3B over his raise. In order for him to raise flop, he has to think it's less likely you have AA/AX that's going to 3B. The only way he can think that is if he has AX.
He's either raising for value or turning his hand into a bluff.
If he's a good, thinking, aggressive reg, he likely understands your SB raising range may not be all that tight. If he's going to raise flop with a hand like T9ss or 76ss, he'd probably 3B those pre, at least some of the time, and won't raise flop with those hands all the time.
Spade draws that have something else going on, and improve in some way on the turn would make the most sense when he barrels. That's going to be combos that pick up a SD or make a pair on the turn. So you're looking at 65ss, 76ss, 97ss, and T9ss, if he's not defending his BB super-wide, or showing up with combos like T7ss or 75ss, or J7ss-K7ss, or up-and-down combos like K2ss.
It's like maybe four combos if he's playing reasonably, and as many as ten combos if he isn't. Other than T9ss, most or all of those are going to check back when we call flop and x/c turn. Maybe he goes for some thin value with J7ss.
He might also just check back turn when he makes a pair. If we take 76, 97, T7, and J7-K7 out of his range, we're back to three combos of 65ss, T9ss, and K2ss, only two of which would be bluffs.
He just doesn't get to the river with very many combos that would take this line and bet again after we've raised pre and called twice.
I wouldn't expect him to have A4s when he raises flop. He's repping A2 or better.
I like these PPs OOP vs a 3! because you sometimes are ahead, sometimes you hit a set, and Vs generally let you see a free card here and there..so I would push back on it not being +EV against a thinking player at least...but yes, deeper = better. I can't lol fold to every 3!
One wonders if you have any raise-folds when facing a 3B pre, if you can't find a reason to fold low PP's. You may want to give some thought to whether or not you're opening too wide / calling 3B's too wide, and what hands you'd open that you'd fold to a 3B.
If you're simply raise-calling low PP's to set-mine, and giving up when you whiff, you might want to consider folding them to the 3B. Otherwise, you should consider the EV of turning them into bluffs on certain boards.
For instance, in the 44 hand, you turned a straight draw after the flop checked through, and yet you checked again. Yes, it was only a GSSD, but if you're showing up there with 44, you could also have 66/33 that flopped a set, or 77 that turned a set.
If the only value you're getting is when you make a set or a boat, and you're otherwise just check-folding to any post-flop aggression, you might save your money and just fold pre.
Otherwise, perhaps put them into a limp-calling range rather than a raise-calling range, so you're losing less when you miss and just check-fold post.
so bad. i woulda stacked this guy.
Interesting you take value line so passively.
Then you go apeshit on semi bluffs.
You need to work on your ranging of opponents.
What spade draws do you think he has that just flat call / don't 3B pre, but raise flop and barrel turn, on this board?
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Sorry doc but this is such a dumb question I don't even know what to say...literally every S1G, S2G, SC, AXss, KXss, Q7ss-QTss combo in the deck, probably a bunch of others... Why the hell would T9ss 3-bet me pre? wtf are you even talking about? 3-betting just shuts these hands out from bluffing it off. If he has a lower set the money is going in anyway. This isn't some drooler, its an aggro kid that likes to battle. Of course he's going to barrel off with missed spades sometimes and when (like submersible said) he bets 2/3rds OTT it's hard to imagine a hand that doesn't want to play for stacks OTR.
Sorry doc but this is such a dumb question I don't even know what to say...literally every S1G, S2G, SC, AXss, KXss, Q7ss-QTss combo in the deck, probably a bunch of others... Why the hell would T9ss 3-bet me pre? wtf are you even talking about? 3-betting just shuts these hands out from bluffing it off. If he has a lower set the money is going in anyway. This isn't some drooler
How's he showing up with AXss when the As is on board?
And I'm the dumb one?
The point you missed is that he FLAT called pre, but RAISED flop. Just look at the board. What flush draws play that way?
I don't give a $hlt what his age is, what he looks like, or what he's wearing. If he's an aggro kid who likes to battle, he's 3B'ing you pre with KQs, and probably KJs, maybe even KTs or K9s. If he's a solver boi, maybe he also raises K6s. You think he's going to start raising you on the flop with a worse flush draw combo?
Do you think he's going to start a multi-street bluff with a draw on the flop, barrel turn, AND empty the clip on the river, after you raise pre, bet-call flop and check-call turn?
Again, tell me what flush draws he has in his range **THAT ACTUALLY PLAY THAT WAY**. He's not going to barrel river. Even aggro battlers have give-up/check-backs in certain lines. This is one of those lines.
You're not ranging opponents effectively street to street. So on the river you have no idea what sort of hand he has, when it should be pretty obvious.
I told before the reveal exactly what sort of range he had based on his actions, and that he'd check back the river unless he made aces up somewhere. I'm not Kreskin. I just pay attention and try to think logically.
If you're suddenly paying attention to what Submersible says, go back and finish reading his first post. He also told you V would check back the river. I doubt he needed a solver to tell him.
It's unusual for me to work this hard to help someone I don't know and have never met. My motivation drops off pretty quickly when it becomes obvious the intended recipient isn't receptive. It completely dies when gratitude is replaced with insults.
Good luck, Banana. See you around.
