1/2 Live, $300 Effective — TT Turn Spot

Yeah I just check it back

With no reads, I check back.

Take the FreeCard
We’re still likely ahead here, unless villain has a queen waiting to check-raise. One pair hands don’t usually win big pots, so keep it small.

The problem is we don’t have a lot of ways to improve and there’s a lot of draws possible to beat us. Unless we can take it down now, don’t want to bloat the pot. Betting for protection is a myth.

If villain would have donked with a queen, it would be tempting to bet pot. Without a queen they likely fold more than 1/2 the time. But with a queen they beat us 95% of the time.

Isn’t the Q essentially a blank? What Qx can V possibly have except some broadway Qxdd exactly? He’s not flatting SB with Q9s and any other Qx is folding to the ~PSB OTF.

OTOH, he has a bunch of 9x and FDs that we’re still beating so why not bet with a plan to check back river?

If we do check back, what’s our plan when V blasts like $75-100 on a brick river?

doesnt checking the turn signal AK ?
Villian senses weakness thinks his 88 might be good and blast the river.
Now what.
we have positioni dont surrendar the betting lead.
isnt LAG defined as someone who keeps beating until meeting resistance and then reevaluates ?
whats the strategy for checking?
would we check AA KK?

PRE - seems standard. Not sure if the raise size is too big or not big enough. Haven't played 1/2 in a decade.

FLOP - c-bet seems standard. Size seems big in theory, but might be ok as a low stakes exploit or with our specific hand.

TURN - I think I'd bomb it with an over-bet here, expecting him to fold pretty often and the hand to be over. If he calls, and checks to us on river, I probably just check back at that point.

As an alternative, we could check back with our SDV, and look to bluff catch river.

The problem is how few good river cards there are. Any diamond brings in the FDFD. Any card from a 3 to an ace might complete a draw, make him 2P or a set, or just give him a higher pair. We'd just be hoping for an off-suit 2.

If V bets river up to 50%-60% pot, I probably snap call. More than 2/3 pot and I start over-folding. If we pick up any tells, I might fold more.

Might adjust this based on stack depth, pot size, and our bet sizing on the flop. We c-bet a tad large, making the pot a tad bigger. That might lead V to stab river for a smaller size, relative to the pot, such that my call/fold breakpoint comes down a bit.

We might consider the game size and V's mannerisms. If he seems indifferent to the money because it's lower stakes, my breakpoint comes up a bit.

Also might consider raising river as a bluff if V's sizing is too in-between.

If V checks river, I might go for some thin value by betting around 1/2-2/3 pot. But also might just check back. Hard to know what river cards are safe to bet when he checks.

I think you just fold hands you have beat and don’t know where you’re at when called. What’s your plan when villain calls $75 turn and donk/jams river?

We check and arrive on the river with $50 invested and a lot of river options based on the card itself as well as villain’s actions.

Call

Call

Seems kinda weird to overbet a middling SDV hand and turn it into a bluff here..

Turn would be a standard check back, middling strength value portion of our range incentivized to play checks here.

Overbetting turn with a middling strength value hand here is a clear mistake. Goal in poker is to make the best decision possible, not to try to get the hand over with because we are scared of dealing with potentially challenging future decisions in the hand.

It's not turning it into a bluff, and our hand isn't middling.

Yes, there's an over-card to our pair on board. But there are still plenty of hands we can target for value, and almost no river cards we'll like if V leads into us after we check back the turn. If we check back, we're signaling that we can't beat a Q, and V will own us on the river.

If we bet turn and get called, we can check back the river and take our SDV. If you're scared to bet turn, you're scared money, and we're potentially losing a street of value, if not the pot when we check back and either fold river or get value-owned.

turn could be a bet, it's certainly not bad. over bet is bad though. we don't want him folding a 9 or any draw.

Using an appropriate range for overbets would be including Qx, KK/AA, Q9, sets - mixed with straight and FD. Playing sound poker is not playing scared money, using an overbet with a middling portion of our range that shouldn’t because you are scared of dealing with river cards is scared money.

What does an unknown MAG at 1/2 have here, when they call from the SB, then x-call a meaty b80 from the PFR? And not closing the action either time. Isn't it a bunch of two overs and a FD kind of stuff, with some 98/87/65s thrown in?

I doubt they're checking a strong made hand here with 2 FDs to fade. So shouldn't H make V make a mistake with most of their range, by forcing them to call a turn bet w/o the right odds? Something like b/f 60-70 or so? If H x's turn, they're not making V make a mistake, and letting them draw for free. Much rather x-b river than turn, tbh.

H hates folding after sticking in >1/3 pf stack, but that's a function of the too-large cbet. H should still exploit fold if V x-raises turn, knowing it isn't a bluff often enough from Generic 1/2 MAG villain and tens are gonna be no good vs the Qxdd, and 2P+ V's claiming.

H blocks most of the V's nut SDs: JTs and T8s. So it's unlikely V has turned more equity. V's flat calls on the flop should be just FDs and maybe stuff like A9, 98, 76. Everything else should fold or raise.

So V has very little to target for value. Betting here is for equity denial mainly. Otherwise we can x and bluffcatch river bricks. If we x, we certainly invite aggression and may have to call at no better than 2-1 pretty far down in our range on the River.

It's not an easy spot. I think x is the bigger mistake. Prefer a 2/3 psb to deny equity.

How is TT pretty far down in our range? It’s kind of the top of our turn x back range imo. TT and JJ. I would think River is just an easy call if we face a bet.

It's not sound poker to play face up, which is what you're doing if you split your range, and play TT differently than you'd play AA here.

V called a fairly large raise pre and a fairly large c-bet. If he's got something that wasn't good enough to 3B pre, but is good enough to call flop, he's either got 9x, or had the FDFD.

We should just be targeting that range by betting our hand for value. If he's got a better hand, good for him.

Baseline - Not too many players are c/r bluffing the turn if you bet. And you don't have enough outs to improve where that would be a "kick myself for betting" situation. I'd go ahead and bet again

Yeah, I don't get the trepidation to bet our hand for value here, when V's range is going to be worse / non-believing 1P, or a draw.

Just bet again, for a large size, to target all the inelastic hands in his range

How is the described overbet strategy face up or exploitable? You are completely wrong here, give a detailed analysis here without using platitudes how you would "exploit" my range if I correctly choose not to overbet TT on the turn here. Missapplying overbets in spots where they do not exist is extremely costly long-term.

See below sim, have added a turn overbet option for your reference. TT unsupringly checks in full frequency, and indeed overbetting is worse than using a smaller turn sizing. In fact, with our exact combo you lose out on more EV with an overbet vs check than if you open folded QQ in the LJ. LOL.