PAHWM - Mis-reg donks huge then gives up a tell.

Do you really think I'm good people?

HAND CONTINUES...

Not trying to make your head explode by asking you a question about solvers. Please humor me...

I'm guessing the solver would never b140 donk as BB here, and so the sim doesn't tell us what BB's range is, only what we're supposed to do in response?

I don't know what sort of range the solver might think BB would have in this line. I was mostly weighting him to QJ, 55, and AQdd, with some slivers of Q5/J5. Once he started talking, I started to think he might have some other QXdd combos that made a pretty light call pre.

I was thinking that I might have to fold turn if he jammed on a diamond, since i could have AXdd/QXdd here, and all his 2P/sets wouldn't like the flush draw coming in. I was also kind of wondering if maybe he'd slow down with 55 since I could have QQ/JJ, or if he'd slow down on an A turn, since I could have AA.

But otherwise, I was expecting him to jam brick turns no matter what he had, such that if we called flop, we'd be effectively committed to calling the rest off on any non-diamond.

In my head, I was just trying to do some quickish math, but got stuck trying to count combos and outs and do multiplication. I gave up and guestimated I was about a 3:2 dog at best, and I was calling $140 to potentially win $525. So I was getting 3.75 to 1 implied odds, which seemed like enough to flick it in.

right but we have no idea what his range actually is, only that he's doing something he shouldn't be. you don't want to make the mistake of misranging him here when realistically no one has any kind of conclusive sample of what b140 into a multiway pot here is going to look like because he might be the only person in the world to use this strategy. so we just try to play reasonably and if you want you can fold some close hands, but this one isn't really remotely close. i think you're an equity favorite vs his range on the flop and you're way too pessimistic in ranging him. i would probably not fold on a diamond turn with the Kd when its not even a psb

there are places to adjust and take information into account, but realistically you have no reads on this guy beyond he is annoying and the pot is just way too bloated to make big folds off nothing.

obviously he isn't balanced but speculating that his range is 2p+ seems fairly wild to me, or even guessing what his range is when we have no information to go off of from a line that i am not sure i have ever seen. so can either use common sense - i have an extremely good hand vs an idiot doing something odd in a very bloated pot, or u can look at the math of what it could be worth to continue with our hand in some capacity (~33bb) and both are going to lead to the same conclusion.

i mentioned this in another post on here and im not being flippant or condescending. the amount of nuance and understanding of the situation required to do something you are not supposed to here is extreme, and if you don't know the preflop action this probably isn't the spot that you have a perfect grasp on to soul read in. i understand doc probably knew the pre action when he played the hand, but the times to make this level of adjustment are extremely few and far between to the point that you're better off never doing it. certainly would never spend any amount of strategy time reviewing this as opposed to much more basic and implementable concepts / spots.

am not really interested in going back and forth re this so will be my last post in the thread unless something interesting happens later in the hand

You say we have no idea what his range actually is, then you say you think we're an equity favorite vs his range.

I used to think it was a sign of being a bad player whenever someone just couldn't lay down AA/KK no matter what, but it seems like you're saying that theory suggests we should never lay down KK here, no matter what.

If I'm being pessimistic in ranging him, I'd take that as suggesting his range has some $hlt that just makes no sense, and in effect, he's punting a lot. And by saying we don't know what his range actually is, but we're a favorite, we're just saying we don't need to know what the $hlt portion of his range looks like, only that it's $hlt.

Do I have all that right?

I was already all-in on the flop, but I am also all-in on this turn. The 5 is possibly the best card in the deck because it improves your hand while reducing value combos for the opponent and ensures that QX will still pay.

I am not worried about him hero-folding QJ (if he even has that) and if he folds AXdd because of the board pair, it's not a terrible result for you.

the spr is 4 on a dynamic board where you lose to extremely few combos, discounted by both preflop and him deciding to lead for a massive size into multiple people. im not telling you to never fold KK / AA, but what the solver is telling you is that you are commited at this stack depth. for you to choose to ignore that and do something else you need significantly more information than he was mean to you while you were tanking and that he enforces the minimum and maximum buyin at the table. given that he has this line in his repetoire its fairly likely that hes going to be erratic enough that you are never going to fold a hand of this quality at this depth vs him and be happy with the results

Turn is a great card. You beat QJ. He shouldn't have donked 5x, so only losing to QQ/JJ, Q5/J5, which are loose preflop calls and 55 for quads.

Still not happy, as he could be checking a boat or quads after flop play and tell.

For some reason I didn't grunch the turn, but I agree with G's alterative universe response of deleveraging (which is probably more done in higher SPR pots but is still applicable here cuz we don't want QJ/AQ to make hero folds). Now that we're here (and I'm not), let's see what this guy does on the river. If he shoves, we might be able to sigh fold against what looks boaty. If he checks, we can go for value against hands like QJ. The real decision will be against smallish bets as to whether we just call versus think there is value in getting it all in.

GcluelessLLSNLnoobG

I actually prolly call if we check back and he shoves river. Our line looks so weak that we might well be inducing.

I'm just not convinced most bet 3 whole stacks of reds on the river with Qx once we call their huge flop bet and they slow down on the turn; think they more do blocking bet sizing to help prevent stacks going in.

Course we'd also be getting great odds, but that's why I think we have to make our commitment decision facing the flop bet.

GcluelessLLSNLnoobG

I think it's a mistake to disagree with this and also think it's a mistake to try and soul-read 1/3 bad regs/fish with the description provided.

As I have difficulty understanding messages on the internet, I have a translation app that helps me.

Your sentence above came back as, ...

"As always, I'm right and you're wrong. Dissent nor questions will be tolerated. So STFU and get to the river."

No one here attempts to turn off their brain at low SPRs and commit more than me (as my whole preflop strategy revolves around setting up very small versus very large SPRs)... but...

If we raised to $25 preflop and all 8 opponents call to create an 9way $225 pot and we're all $925 effective, offering everyone incredibly juicy IO of 40++:1 preflop, i.e. SPR 4, we're just committing here when someone donks out into eleventeen players for $315?

And of course that scenario ain't remotely the same as raising to $25 and going HU at $225 effective, offering our lone opponent terrible 9:1 IO preflop, i.e. also SPR 4, when he donks $70 into just us.

The SPR and stack depth is exactly the same in each of these scenarios, and yet I hope we treat them differently due to number of players in the hand / IO being offered preflop / amount of real $$$$ for a 1/3 NL game going in postflop / etc.? OPs case is somewhere inbetween so there's room for discussion, imo.

GcluelessSPRnoobG

To pile on...

A few days ago as an exercise in analyzing my results, I made a list of my 5 biggest money makers. I think the biggest source is from hidden nutted hands that my Vs can't imagine an OMC could have. Catching punts wasn't on the list.

Some rare few days there will be a wildman who has heard aggro is a magic ticket to greatness. A couple of months ago, so ~15 sessions past, a hotshot sat down with a bankroll of maybe $5K and bought in to 2/5 for a half buy, $600, repeatedly. His VPIP was 99% and his mega bet aggro per hand was similar. He whacked a few people because even 72o can beat AA, but it only took a few hours to exhaust his BR. I got him for maybe $1200. But those sorts of idiots don't come around often anymore.

I honestly didn't think this hand would generate so much discussion. Some of the responses surprise me.

When I've seen big donks from EP opponents in multi-way pots, it's almost always been a big hand. But now I'm wondering if I've seen enough showdowns to assume it's always a big hand. A lot of times, people just fold to the big donk.

It seems insane to do it as a bluff without a super-strong draw. It also seems kind of insane to do it with a value hand that isn't super-strong. With a sample size of one, I don't know how much the reveal is going to tell us.

Re, Submersible's comment that we need a lot more info before we deviate - we may not have a ton of info on this specific V, but I'd think the population is likely to be under-bluffing here, and over-folding is generally going to be higher EV than continuing.

I'm still not sure if calling or jamming is better if we're going to continue on the flop, but it's nice to see the solver appears to like my specific combo of KdKc best as a flat call.

@Garick - is it too soon to advance the action yet?

Nah, go for it. Sorry so much of the turn discussion got eaten by the glitch, but it's been up for a good long time at this point.

Aight. Carrying on then...

Hero raised to $25 pre with KcKd and got three callers.

FLOP ($100) - QcJd5d.

V1 thinks a few seconds before donking for $140. EP limper folds, and action is on hero. Hero tanks for not that long and V gets irritated.

Hero calls. V2 folds.

TURN ($380) - QcJd5d 5c,

Back-door flush draw and the board is paired. V doesn't think too long before checking. He's got about $285 left behind.

Hero jams all in.

V doesn't like it, but begrudgingly calls.

Hero fast rolls his hand. V shows QJ, no diamond. River is the Ad, and V hits the goddam roof.

I think he was saying he could have gotten away from it on the river, or hero's an idiot who got lucky. I dunno. I get tunnel vision and my hearing goes out whenever I win or lose a big pot. All I really heard was angry noises.

Table discussion about the hand was pretty brisk immediately after. V actually said anyone still talking about it was an idiot and demanded we stop. The bad reg sitting two seats to my right told him to STFU and looked like he was about to throw hands.

V went on monkey tilt, reloaded, and paid off like an ATM for the next six hours, constantly shooting me evil looks, making comments about how bad at poker I am, and telling anyone who would listen that I was about to go broke.

It turned out to be a pretty good session for me. Other than two big pots I lost for about $1400 each, I won every pot I contested, and lost count of how many opponents I stacked.

V was still sitting there steaming when I left, up over $600.

You were 32% on the flop. You won, but the analysis of the tells was correct. He did have a big hand on the flop, and it probably would have been better to fold the flop, regardless of GTO analysis. This guy does not seem like a decent professional player, and the speech and the nature of the speech indicate he wanted action.

The turn was what it looked like that he realized AA/KK/AQ/KQ were a big part of the range you would 3! and call the flop overbet, and he was now way behind those.

If we assume on the flop that he's either jamming all turns or never check-folding if I jam turn, then I'd think we only need 21% equity to call, when we're effectively getting 3.75 to 1 implied odds.

It worked out well when the right card hit and he got counterfeited. However, it is a fold with the tell, and you really can't flat call the overbet.

V has a lot of bad poker player characteristics.

His overbet with top 2 on a FD board was him playing scared of the FD. He could have priced out a FD for a lot less. He also needed that win over Hero who had already caused V aggravation. Winning any hand from the evil and gruesome Doc was way more important than the number of chips.

For all those who argued speech was strength, yeah, more often true than not, IME. But it's also entitlement and frustration because V thought he had paid a more than fair price to already be stacking his well deserved winnings. In V's mind, Doc was an annoying jerk slowing V down.

The table should have been paying for Doc's dinner and drinks because POing V was a huge favor. There's not much more fun to be had at a poker table than to be stacking someone's entire stack while they berate you for your poor play.

His call on Turn was him playing only his own cards. He went to the turn with top 2 and he still had top 2 from everything he could see. He also felt entitled to the pot because when you flop top 2, you're supposed to win. It's the same as some players with AA who can never find a fold regardless of board texture or having gone to the flop 5 handed.

its not that dissent isn't tolerated, it's just you guys don't really have anything to add beyond your feelings. while that's great, you don't really have any evidence / reason for anything you guys are saying. so it sort of becomes a circle where i post math or whatever, and you just keep telling me you don't believe it. there isn't really much room for discussion beyond that i guess. but you end up in an echo chamber where its the same 5 posters posting the same things in every thread and no one really improves