Set of Jacks vs 4-liner

1) What you have on your hands is a bluffcatcher
2) You close the action and if you are behind now, you can improve on the river

Your username is FreeCard. Take it.

Check back and fold river. If the board pairs and there's action in front of you there might be a tricky decision. Don't forget you lose to a 9 as well, although that would probably try to get to showdown

I know that was a mistake. I might have folded both of them and be in better shape than I am now. I certainly needed to narrow the field.

I don’t know the guy opening who hasn’t played a hand in an hour and I have a nit behind me waiting to act. I get to thinking about the wrong things late in a session and I’m always afraid of jacks.

I mostly 3bet preflop. Raise size is smallish. There's some dead money in with the caller. I'm assuming we have position. Although facing a raise from someone who hasn't raised yet is a little concerning (although that is also somewhat tempered by age of young dood doing it). I think flatting is perfectly +EV, but I would guess 3betting is moreso.

I usually like offering poor 2:1 odds to draws, which would mean a raise to $140 on the flop. Still, we raised on the larger side of things so fine.

Not sure why we've concluded someone always has an Ace here? And if we actually do believe that, then how does betting to "claim that Ace" help? Still, straights are certainly possible (mostly flush draws that backed into them). QQ still in play. Although still value to get from KQ (a very common hand in this config) as well as flush draws. Think I would mostly lean to checking back and seeing what happens on the river, noting that it is unlikely anyone is going to get too out-of-line on blank rivers multiway.

GcluelessNLnoobG

What are the two opponents going to call the flop raise with that now makes a straight? MP could have AA or AK even though it would be a bad flop call but players get married to those hands. They shouldn't be calling with hands like AJ or T9s. Typically they would be calling with hands like KQ or QJ. So even though they could show up with a straight here on occasion it would be due to poor play.

The one interesting hand MP could have is QQ which now beats you. KK and TT are also possible.

The easy play would be to check turn but then you have no clue where you are unless the river pairs the board. You could bet 100ish and shove river if the board pairs, that could fold out the random 9 or QQ. Any resistance and I'm not putting more money in the pot.

Goal seems to be getting to showdown as cheap as possible if board doesn't pair. And of course even if the board pairs you could still get coolered by MP.

I think it's the easiest squeeze preflop?

I think flop raising bigger to like 120-150 maybe slightly better since it's a super wet board.

On turn, I don't think there's much value betting.
Alot of villain's range consists of Qx like KQ/JQ type hands. V do have some AK/AJ type hands as well.
Then there are draws like 89, flush draws.

River we can see what villain does first?

I 3b pre. but I don't think calling in position against someone who has barely played a hand is as awful as some are making out.

Turn, as folks have said, all we have is a bluff catcher at this point, check and pray for a board pairing.

I don't think anyone is stabbing at this multiway without an Ace.

If River pairs we will obviously look to get it all in, but if it doesn't and gets checked to us on a river blank, I might try a small value bet, and hope that 2p makes a crying call since I think an Ace will bet River for sure after checking turn.

BTW: This is a good case study for why position is so important in hold em.

Freecard, you and I have a lot in common. We both screw up easy to play hands at the end of the day.

Just like you, I've played good hands bad not wanting to put lots at risk before I go home, and it made an easy to play hand a lit harder. A pre raise that got you HU would let you take aggro on this flop.

Reveal
Hero checks
(360) KdJdTsQc(2h)
MP checks (prob no ace)
CO jams (400) as I thought he might
I know there’s a decent chance he’s bluffing
Hero folds, MP folds
We play together all the time, of course he’s not going to show.

I like the guy, he’s one I pull for when he’s facing other players. I want to believe that some of you are right and he’s not betting air into a multiway pot, so it’s a good fold.

But it’s a strong play if he was bluffing as he’ll likely get folds more than half the time. I’ll be seeing this guy again and can’t let him show me an ace, especially when I’m leaving soon. Trying not to make a big mistake on the way out.

Anyone calling here?

The no 3bet was costly and not my normal style. I didn’t use position or early aggression and that’s just not me. I hate admitting this, but I can get trance like late in a session. Does this happen to anyone else or is it just my leak. Anyway, I’ve got to recognize it quicker and get the heck out of there.

Are you ever checking back a straight on turn? If we're folding river (I am also folding river fwiw) then we probably need some straights that we check back turn, no? Perhaps we can check back straights with flush draw combo (we block villain calling range plus we can improve on river). Interestingly, I'm not sure if I have a bluff range on turn.

Never calling. What are some hands you think V could be bluffing with? It seems hard for him to show up with air given the action so far.

Maybe you don’t realize that some these young guys are very aggressive. I can often use that against them, but there’s a lot of street poker, playing chicken and some of these guys like villain are good at it.

Many of these players are not so good, but are willing to gamble. There’s a couple that go through 3 or 4 rebuys every time I play with them. Sitting around with a bunch of nits happens a lot less than it used to.

I guess I should ask. Is that same trend happening in other rooms or are there still a lot of tight games?

In this case he could have any combination of 2pair which I beat.

I checked the turn looking weak and MP would likely not check the river with a straight, so he looks weak.

Villain likely bets smaller if he wants calls. But then again he could be leveling with the idea if it looks like a bluff, we might call. I played the hand poorly and let him fall into a favorable situation.

A couple of the better pros, I know always bet big with value. They are splashy and loose early, but I would never call them in this situation. They always have it, but someone usually does calls them.

But this villain is very unpredictable, sometimes crazy, and never ever passive. Yet, I still like playing with him. I take him down my share of the time, but not this time.

Villain could think he is value betting two pair after the turn action.

Bluffing in this spot seems suicidal to me as the pool just shrug calls with two pair plus so often IME.

Yeah I guess if we think V could be value betting worse or turning 2p into a bluff, a call becomes more reasonable. I don’t see this happen in the games I play

You may want to pay attention to the situations in which you see opponents getting aggressive, to see if you can spot some clues about when they're bluffing and when they're not.

In this spot, I think our line might induce some river bluffs if the pot was smaller or if it was heads up, or if the board was more middling. But the small over-bet jam into a big pot and two opponents on a four-Broadway board is typically going to be under-bluffed.

Think about it. If he had 2P+, he could check. You don't look like you're going to bet river after you check back turn. He sort of has to bet his straights for value and check with worse. He doesn't really have any natural bluffs here. Very few low stakes opponents are going to depolarize by betting huge with thin value here, sandwiched between two opponents.

I think you made a good fold.

Believe I’m trying hard to find a tell on anyone that I play with a lot. But it’s not so easy…for instance this hand, we’re all guessing and I’ll never know what he had. But I agree, I need to pay attention to aggression clues

I didn't specifically mean tells. Low stakes players will bluff more in certain spots and less in others.

They bluff more when the pot is small, when we show weakness, in heads up pots, etc. They bluff less when the pot is big, when we show strength, in multi-way pots, etc.

There is some river bluffing frequency from players in middle positions when the action checks through on the turn. It makes sense - if the LP player had a strong hand they would have bet turn. If the EP player had a strong hand, he'd lead river.

But it's too easy for anyone to have an ace here, and also easy for 2P+ to be good if action checks through. He has to have some sort of hand to get to the turn. He would have raised pre with KK or QQ, and very likely TT. He can't have JJ. What can he have when he calls pre and flop?

If he 3B's AK pre, then he's got AQ or Q9 that flopped a straight, or AT/AJ that turned a straight. Maybe K9 or just 9x that turned a straight, something like A9, K9, etc. Otherwise, he's got KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, or QT that he's turning into a bluff.

It's hard to think he's going to turn 2P into a bluff by over-bet jamming into two opponents. It's not like he's got 2x pot behind. It's barely more than a PSB.

Before I'd call here, I'd have to see that he's capable of bluffing big in a spot where most low stakes players won't. I need to see he's got that sort of gamble in him. Most opponents don't.

Well, there is definitely a busted flush draw that could be pulling this move. But meanwhile most other hands on this type of board (like the zillion two pears) are mostly just happy to showdown, it's multiway (where bluffs aren't as common), and it's for 4 whole stacks of reds (which most people can't bring themselves to do on a bluff). So I'm fine with the fold.

Would be a more interesting spot if we and the CO were in switched positions. In the current positions, with our aggroness on the flop he could definitely be looking for a check/raise with a straight on the turn. But if the positions were reversed and he let the turn check thru giving the flush/boat draws a free card then more reason to look him up.

ETA: No one is turning 2 pear into a $400 bluff nor a value bet here when they can just showdown and often win without risking huge stacks. The only consideration is whether there are enough busted flush draws that do this, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

if this dude bluffed here God bless him. i'm not calling.