OVERFOLDERS and OVERCALLERS
Not HH, but I hope we can discuss about reading players, a huge part of our game.
I just think that beyond all of our strategies at low stakes, the biggest edge is identifying overfolders and overcallers. In the fact that if they fold way more than MDF, we bluff and print, a major exploit. And of course if they’re a calling station we only value bet.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think a lot of players are clearly leaning in one direction or the other if you pay attention.
Thus, what I’m asking my friends here is concerning the identifying process. Do you have any tips on quickly (or how long does it take?) putting villain in one of these camps?
Cause once we know, the exploit’s available.
Do you consider this?
I mean I respect this crowd more than you know and would love to hear any thoughts.
3 Replies
I mean, I don't think there's much more than can be said other than pay attention? Obviously the players who are showing up in lottsa hands and getting to the river lots with lol holdings are overcallers, and meanwhile those who are showing up in very few hands and almost never getting to the river are overfolders.
Gistheremuchmoretosay?G
From a Bayesian standpoint, I would be careful of targeting over folders at low stakes without significant sample size.
Why? Because over callers dominate most low stakes, and so its much more likely that you get a false positive on an over folder than on an over caller.
Ed Miller has an outstanding piece in one of his books on this.
From a Bayesian standpoint, I would be careful of targeting over folders at low stakes without significant sample size.
Why? Because over callers dominate most low stakes, and so its much more likely that you get a false positive on an over folder than on an over caller.
Ed Miller has an outstanding piece in one of his books on this.
Your point is well taken
There’s different kinds of overfolding.
Some check out early playing fit or fold on the flop. This is why I like pot-sized flop bets at times. This is kinda common with low stakes players and probably my main attack.
But I think you have to be much more careful trying to push the population off hands on the turn and river. It’s harder to identify folders in these situations that happen less. But this is where the money is - if you can find someone to push around.
I guess it’s this second situation where I’m looking for tips and clues as I think I already recognize & exploit ‘fit or fold’ players pretty well.
Obviously, some knuckleheads will call you all the way with a small pair facing 4 overs, but I think it’s so lucrative when you can find people that will call along flop, turn, and then fold river.
I don’t think it’s an easy question, but I just double down on believing that reading opponents > is greater than most other skills and am hoping to get some insights through this discussion.
