V makes insane fold - why?

Be careful on your BS detector. He may just have had JTs. I often lie when people ask what I had. A few years ago, I once caught a glimpse of a little old lady's cards (I had already warned her I could see a few hands before), and she folded the junk, but said she had JJ. I was kinda shocked.

Strangely, it's actually quite rare for people to outright lie when they can be caught, e.g. a chance where they would have to share if called. They misdirect, but very rarely out right lie.

I've folded KK 4 times preflop in my 1/3 NL game.

3 of the times I was absolutely certain my opponent had AA. And the stack sizes weren't even super huge ($600, $500 and $385 if IIRC).

But the one other time, I wasn't so certain. I had played the hand extremely weird in that after a lot of limps at an actiony table a dood raised to $20 and then next to act I just flatted KK hoping for some action behind me. And I got that action. Except it wasn't from the right guy plus he also pulled of a large LRR after a bunch of other flats. But, unlike the other times, I wasn't 100% sure it was AA. I was pretty sure this particular guy could easily do this with QQ+, probably AK, and maybe (maybe?) even JJ (TT?) some (some?) of the time. But the reason I folded was simple: we were both fairly deep for our game, sitting on $800 each. And I simply didn't want to risk a decent session in an ez game getting into it with him for large stacks in a high variance spot. Not saying that is good thinking or correct or anything, just saying that is why I folded my KK in this spot (noting he claimed the other KK afterwards and I have no reason to not believe that).

Cliffs: Villain is cruising along and doing well in an easy peasy game beating up on fishies and sees no reason to get into a high variance spot with a ~deep stack for gobs against someone who might know what they are doing. I'm not saying it is the best thinking, or even not terrible thinking... but I (unfortunately) get it.

ETA: Regarding the possibility it was BS, I think I'm leaning with Doc's read that it could easily be the truth. I claim folding KK multiple times a session for the lols, but it's kinda obvious I'm joking. And of course I'll outright lie about what I had sometimes for misdirection / re-enforcing the tight image ("nice fold, I made the flush"). But I'll fully admit that ugly ego gets the better of me sometimes and I'll truthfully state what I folded for ego's sake (although at least I'm disciplined enough to not actually show my hand so it will leave some doubt). I recently claimed to fold QQ preflop for ugly ego's sake (where I was shown AA), and it wasn't a lie. This kinda sounds like this case here with this guy. Goddamn ugly ego.

GcluelessriskaversenoobG

Yeah and yesterday I was playing a plo hand where one guy showed a set and nfd and the unobservant whale claimed he had the nfd over and over.

Don’t believe everything that you hear.

He didn't have KK.

1. You have been active/aggressive
2. He's the button so you will be wider than normal...and you say you have been raising or folding preflop
3. If he really had KK he wouldn't admit to folding to a single 3bet over a button open (OK, albeit over limpers).

Your read at the time may well be spot on: he may well have squirmed and folded a monster. In a button-vs-BB situation, a monster (in other words, a terrible fold) would be something like AQs or 99. Not KK.

I get a kick out of how posters view their image through the eyes of other players. He moved because he didn’t want to **** around with me? This is low limit, hardly anybody views anybody else in a certain way.

As far as this one hand goes, V couldn’t have got in your head any better. This was a standard hand with no flop and now you’re seriously wondering about your image after his table talk.

If V “intuitively” laid down KK then he has a huge leak. If you would have rightly 3 bet here with AK then you would have forgotten about the hand inside an hour. Big bag of nothing IMO.

Other than all that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?

In all seriousness, part of my reason for posting the thread was to see how many people would focus on whether or not V was telling the truth, as opposed to asking what may lead an opponent to make an almost certainly -EV fold.

For the sake of discussion, I'd ask people to suspend their disbelief and consider under what circumstances you might make a huge deviation based on minimal info, effectively nothing more than a hunch.

I had a hard time believing him in the moment. It just seems insane. But I couldn't shake the feeling that he did indeed fold KK.

I like the raise to 80. Players fold KK more often than reason suggests. Last week, I got a royal flush. This week, Doc had AA, and V folded KK. These spots are uncommon.

Occum’s Rasor says V was lying. Doc is transparent is the more complicated explanation.

How many times had you 3-bet to $70+ before this hand occurred?

Never. Hunches are why most players lose money.

Players make insanely bad decisions all the time. My point is why would you care if a player makes an insane play? Isn’t that what you want? Personally, I wouldn’t care what he folded.

I’m from near there, but haven’t been home in awhile. How do you like the room? Is it worth making the trip?

My guess is that you look like a competent player. If this guy is beating up everyone else, he’s likely cautious with an unknown.

It works both ways, I remember making a big bet with QQ and villain folded KK face up.

People are always amazed at big folds, but many pride themselves in them. I always remember the guy that folded QQ preflop in a trivial spot, then won the WSOP & ten million.

Just an opinion, no offense
but I’m not talking strategy with anyone at a table where I’m playing. I’m sure you’re an outgoing guy, but you might need to learn my ‘shrug’ answer to strategy questions.

When he told me folded big, “yeah, I never know how to play the little pairs” - you can lie too. Mostly you’re hard looking for the truth at the poker table and that’s not productive. You didn’t show, did you?

I always picture Patrik Antonius when everyone folds to his aces. Takes another look at them, tosses them in the muck, and on to the next….. nobody would ever know.

People say all kinds of things at the table. When someone claims a massive fold and I didn't see their cards, I say "Oh wow big fold", assume that they're lying and then move on with my life.

You asked him what he had and he gave you a ridiculous answer. Got you upset as intended. If he said he had KK, he probably had some junk he couldn't call with.

This is a bit irrelevant.
The other day I just sat down and I saw a guy in btn open then bb 3bets.
Flop is like J92 or some crap all lower than Q flop. BB cbets then btn folds QQ faced up!?!?
Maybe he got some reads. But to me, this guy didn't have reads but rather it was his playing style. He didn't want to risk his stack in the middle with QQ.

Good question. Working from memory, I'd say I probably found 3-4 occasions to 3B pre prior to this hand. Never for less than 3x IP or 4x OOP, that I can recall, because the game was playing so splashy. I'm pretty sure this was the first time I'd 3B him. I can't remember if any of the other hands I'd 3B made it to showdown.

I'm definitely not a mind-reader, but there have been times when I've gotten extremely strong bursts of intuition about exactly what hand an opponent had. I had a similar feeling when he raised, which was why I paused to think about my raise sizing. And then when he told me he folded KK, he said it was intuitive.

I guess I believe that sometimes we can be really dialed in mentally, and find the correct play, even if it would otherwise seem to be insanely -EV. To be fair, I've seen people make "obvious" folds and be wrong. I once 4B with JJ and my opponent snap-mucked KK face up.

What I was thinking in game was that even though he could be opening wide on the BTN, I didn't think he would be opening wide in this splashy game, when he'd barely been VPIP'ing any hands. And even though I should be 3B'ing tight from the BB, I'd been pretty active, and not really all that shy about 3B'ing. I could be 3B'ing light, as far as he'd know.

I used that $80 raise size because I didn't think he'd automatically assume I was super strong, and he couldn't just fold a big hand to a single raise at our stack depth. In order for him to fold KK, he'd have to think that I was paying attention enough to understand that he wouldn't be opening wide just because he was on the BTN, and therefore I wouldn't be 3B'ing him very light.

The funny thing is, he was the one guy at the table that I would definitely not 3B light. But I don't think I was giving off crusher vibes, such that he could be sure I wasn't getting OOL. Like, how does he know I'm really paying attention, and not just loosening up in a splashy game?

At this point, based on our past exchanges, I'm expecting you to tell me that my raising range is too tight and a good player would notice. My brain will hurt because I'll remember all the trash hands I've opened for a raise, all the light 3B's, the occasional light 4B's, and the one insanely ill-advised 5B with JJ.

One other possibility - this isn't my regular room. I was traveling for work. I've only played in this room once before. One of the regs told me the games are always splashy, which is how it was the other time I played there. Maybe there just isn't much 3B'ing, and a 3B from anyone who seems competent gets more respect.

I agree we shouldn't deviate based on hunches. Maybe that wasn't the right terminology. I'm wondering how often people make these sort of plays based on what may seem like intuition, but may actually be the sub-conscious mind putting things together in a way the conscious mind typically wouldn't.

I care because I'm always trying to learn from mistakes. After he folded, I was thinking maybe I should have used a smaller raise size, or taken less time to think about it.

The challenge in this instance is that I only had a second or two to think between his raise and action being on me. I needed a few more seconds to consider his range, our stack depth, and my raise size, given there were two limpers still to act.

It was my second time playing there. Both times were weeknights, because I travel there for work. It's a decent-sized room, but when I've been there, they only had 4-5 tables going. The 1/3 games seem to be pretty splashy, based on both my personal experience and commentary from a couple regs.

There have been a few times when an opponent has either changed seats or left the table, and it was clearly to get away from me. Sometimes they'll openly comment about it. I recently went off on a guy for literally following me as I changed seats, so he could stay on my direct left. He wasn't the least bit discrete about it.

But that's unusual. More often, semi-observant players seem to think I'm borderline maniacal, based on the comments I hear. I think it's just because I mostly play raise-or-fold pre and I'll use over-bets post, making me look super-aggro to them, when I think I'm just playing fundamentally sound.

It does work both ways. I had an opponent fold KK face up when I 4B him with JJ. That one was pretty shocking, because I actually was playing semi-maniacal at the time. I showed him the JJ, and he went on monkey-tilt.

I generally don't talk strat at the table. Some drama occurred before the conversation with V started. One of the players involved took a walk. While he was gone, the other player involved was yapping about it, and I happened to look up. Suddenly, he's talking to me, causing me to miss the flop and turn action in the hand V was playing versus the guy who'd just cracked my aces.

When the dude stopped talking, I noticed the board had two aces and a jack on it, and that the flop was two-tone, and that the pot had gotten big by the river, when V put in a big bet, sending his opponent into the tank.

I was trying to figure out how the pot had gotten so big, and what his opponent could have on that board when he didn't raise pre. He'd cracked my aces with a trash hand (54o that flopped bottom pair, turned trips, and rivered a boat), so I was wondering if he put in a bunch of money with a weak bluff-catcher, or if he was fake-tanking with a busted flush draw.

After the hand, I asked the guy sitting next to me if he knew what happened on flop and turn. This is when V piped up, saying the flop checked through, leading to my comment about his check back on the flop, and we were off to the races.

I just had AA cracked, and then there was this big pot with two aces on board. I'm pretty sure V had at least AK, if not AJ for a boat. It seemed like it may have triggered him to bring up the hand he folded to my 3B. I didn't ask about it. He just volunteered out of nowhere that he made a big fold to my 3B.

He'd recently said he was getting ready to leave. I didn't care if he knew he made a good fold, and I appreciated him confirming my suspicion that he folded a big hand. I hadn't said anything about it, so he had no reason to think I was wondering. I doubt he just randomly decided to feed me some unsolicited BS two hours later.

What happens more often, players folding KK to a standard 3-bet or players lying about their hands?

Folding KK on the button in this configuration is a terrible play. But I am more inclined to believe he didn't have KK.

I didn't ask. Never mentioned it. I doubt he randomly decided to feed me some unsolicited BS, two hours after the hand, right after he said he was getting ready to leave, and I said I needed to go soon.

Players lie more often than they fold KK to a standard 3B.

Again, this convo happened 2 hours later. I didn't ask him about it. He volunteered the info out of nowhere.

It was 2am. I'd been saying I should have left and need to leave so I could get some sleep before having to get up and work again the next day. He'd just said he was getting ready to leave to drive back to Richmond, about 90 minutes away.

If he seemed anguished about folding, of if I'd shown anguish after the hand, and begged him to tell me what he had, I could see him lying. But his comment was completely unsolicited, and he stood to gain nothing from it. He literally picked up and left ten minutes later.

I don't think anyone randomly decides to make up a lie and say "I made a big fold", completely unsolicited, two hours later, as they're dragging in a huge pot and getting ready to leave.

The hand I'd 3B him was the only hand we'd played against each other. It's not like we were frequent nemeses and he wanted to get a last dig in to tilt me before he leaves.

He wasn't an emotional player. He barely spoke or changed his expression in the time I'd been at the table. He didn't lose any big pots or have any big hands cracked, and appeared to be up about $1500 when he left.

I can't imagine what would motivate him to concoct a whopper about folding KK to my 3B.

Generally, no. I prefer to play fairly tight until I make some observations of how my opponents are playing.

I'd think it's a mistake to go out of our way to make an impression on our opponents. It's sort of like telling a lie, and having to remember what we said later, and getting tripped up.

Think about how many opponents you've played against who did something or played in such a way that people took notice. Consider how that information becomes valuable in future pots.

If you're thinking that doing something crazy for advertising value will get you paid in later hands, yes, that can happen. But it's likely to be once, and never again, because everyone sees what you did, and they won't fall for it again.

I've seen guys sit down, show a wild bluff, then play nitty, expecting opponents to pay them off. Or they'll show the nuts, and expect everyone to over-fold when they bluff. Sometimes it works, but very often, they're quickly exposed as being fundamentally bad players.

Plus, it's rare to see a stable line up in most low stakes cash games. Players are constantly leaving and being replaced by someone new.

When the convo with V took place, he was the only player who was still at the table from when I sat down two hours earlier. Seven seats had been rotated in two hours, a couple of those more than once. I saw at least 20 opponents over a four hour session.

It's hard to get enough future EV out of doing something that's clearly -EV, unless you can do something to get opponents to insta-tilt.

Like, in that same game, I put in a pretty chunky 3B pre as a bluff in a multi-way pot, then showed it when everyone folded. The initial raiser was clearly tilted. He made an angry comment, and punted off his stack a few minutes later. He left, and was replaced by another player, dropping more money on the table. But I did that after being there 3 hours, and seeing how everyone at the table was playing.

No I wasn't necessarily going to say your 3-bet range was too tight. I was genuinely wondering if you had been active with 3-bets. I would say if this had been the first time you 3-bet in two hours at the table, I would be more likely to believe that maybe he really folded kings. Given your response here I'm more likely to think he was FOS.

My prior observations about you being too tight were more about postflop in low SPR spots, and that was based on your responses in strategy threads. I don't know what your preflop tendencies are.

I saw Phil Galfond say in a video years ago that he preferred to 3-bet light for his first 3-bet, because he thought people were more likely to give him credit for a hand. Not that he wouldn't 3-bet aces if he got them, but if a good light 3-bet opportunity came up he would take it. I sort of have the same attitude against opponents who are capable of folding.

However in loose passive live games like the one described here, I'm expecting my 3-bets to almost always get called so I'm 3-betting more linearly and just sticking to strong hands. I would still squeeze with some "weaker" stuff like pocket 9s or suited Broadways if the situation came up, but in loose passive games you've got to be more value-oriented.

I always want my first 3B to be light so that hopefully I follow it up soon with the goods. As people who don't know me assume I'm OMC, in a new room I'll 3B as low as 86s in EP. I don't really care if I get 4B and fold because I'm happy to get people thinking I have no backbone. But way more often than not, my 3Bs will get a lot of respect until people realize I 3B more than anyone else.

Against more aware competition, those who have realized I'm not working from the OMC handbook, I want to have something defensible from LP / BU because good players know a LP/BU raise is likely weaker.