naked Queen good?
1/3/6/20 no option NLHE 9 handed 1k cap
We've just come to this game for the first time and are sponging the vibes still. This hand is maybe 30 minutes into the game (so don't lose your minds over the reads). One of our first or second hands played. We haven't shown down anything. Game seems fishy.
V1 - Stabby mawg. Covered the table when I sat down and hasn't done much but stab and call down light a few times. Covers. MP.
V2 - Middle eastern. Been quiet and loose pre and has had a nutted betting range post. Playing maybe 35/5/0. We've seen him RFI AQ flop Q-blank-blank and confidently stack off at SPR ~4-5. CO. 700$.
V3 - Indian guy that played 1/3 with me when I came in for 20-30 minutes while I waited for this game. Complete fish. Happy that he came over and bought in 1k. Has been chasing passively and making stabs when checked to IP. Has his ego in the game. SB. 950$.
---- H in UTG+1 (4th blind) for 20 with 1300$.
V1 opens MP 50, V2 calls CO, V3 calls SB, BB + UTG fold, H sees Q♥ T♣ in UTG+1 and completes. 4-ways 2nd to act.
Flop 200 - Q♣ Q♦ 5♣
Checks through
Turn 200 - 8♣
V3 leads SB 125, H smooth calls, V1 folds, V2 to 300, V3 pain-folds, H... Heads up V2 has 350ish back, pot is 750..
16 Replies
And what would you do if you had T♠?
naked Queen good?
I mean, if that's your thing...
Spoiler
Leaning towards an extremely exploitative fold here if you have high confidence in your reads. I don’t see a 35/5/0 passive postflop player bluffing here MW with his remaining stack depth - staring down the barrel of a range of 88, 55/flushes/occasional larger Qx. Naked Ac bluff not consistent w/ this V. The fact that he didn’t just shove here either is also concerning. A spot I would fold quietly without telling anyone, can be a difference in win rate here vs players who mindlessly shrug stack off w/ middling Qx here against this specific player type.
We might beat 1 combo of Q9s if he even plays it this way. The rest of his value range beats us.
I would fold preflop multiway. Fold turn.
Seems like an easy fold.
Result: I just shove turn and gii with V2, he snaps with 55, River Q♠, naked queen good.
I sure hope you see this as a horrible decision, even though you hit your 2% miracle. OK, you also had 6 outs to the bigger boat, but still really bad. You paid 36% of the pot with under 16% equity.
You are well behind pot odds against higher trips, boats, and flushes. They probably aren't calling raises with weak Qs. Not sure you are ahead nearly enough to gii.
I mean, to a certain extent, yes, as he also could have had a flush or QX, but most of his QX range that raises turn beats you as well, so you still had about the same number of outs vs his range. By the rule of 2 and 4, you had 14% equity against his value range.
When he raises into 2 players small leaving a fairly small amount behind, it is likely he has a boat or at least is well ahead of trips bad kicker.
I mean, to a certain extent, yes, as he also could have had a flush or QX, but most of his QX range that raises turn beats you as well, so you still had about the same number of outs vs his range. By the rule of 2 and 4, you had 14% equity against his value range.
Don't even think V has Qx, he's CO how does Qx not bet flop?
No sane bluffs in range either, as those also bet flop when checked to.
88/55/Ac*c ... maybe he has some worse (than Tx) flushes too, but there aren't a lot.
V2 - Middle eastern. Been quiet and loose pre and has had a nutted betting range post. Playing maybe 35/5/0.
To be fair, it's not as bad as 14%.
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - QcQd5c8c
PLAYER_1 QhTc
PLAYER_2 Q8,Qx5x,88,55,Ac*c,(KcJc,Kc9c,Jc9c),KQ,QJ
1276 trials (exhaustive)
All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
QhTc|20.8072%|18.4953%|4.6238%|236|59|
Q8,Qx5x,88,55,Ac*c,(...|79.1928%|76.8809%|4.6238%|981|59|
[/table]
Basically KK vs. AA preflop, what ya gonna do.
V2 description (general demography combined with his observed play) points to him having an extremely low bluffing frequency in all nodes. As played, this is an extremely under-bluffed spot, such that in game I'd think V2 is literally never bluffing.
I'd want to take a moment to consider what V3 had that donks 60% pot and then pain-folds. I'd think that range would be weighted towards weak Qx, nut flush draws, and some slivers of 5x.
If we assign V3 that range, it would weight V2 to strong QX and 55. But I'd think this player type would just get it all in with QX when there's a FDFD available. The small raise, only leaving half his stack / half pot behind, looks pretty nutted.
Not saying we can just give him 55 and nothing else. He could have Q5 at some frequency. But maybe also just QX. It's not likely to be a flush draw or massively over-played 5x. Probably not a worse QX combo often enough to want to play for stacks.
He'd have to be calling the pre-flop raise next to act with almost every combo of QX, and over-valuing all those combos to make me want to call here, and I don't think this player type is doing that. But if we think he's got a lot of worse Qx in his range, we could just flat call and let him continue to spew.
