My fave bluffing hand, 86s

Does this seem like a good villain to bluff?

why are you bluffing people who dont fold

Pre-flop not sure your position but 3b is too wide even against a fish. If you are CO/BTN mixing in some low-freq 3b bluffs is reasonable w/ suited 1 gappers IE 65/76s but 2-gapper is too weak especially vs opponent will underfold. You may have “lucked” into a theoretically approved turn merge bet getting value from FD and folding out 99-JJ occasional QQ region, However, make sure you actually are thinking about the reason you are betting in game, vs this particular V not be surprised if he continues those PP either. As played clear river check, sliver of SD vs bricked FD and blocking cards you want V to have if bluffing.

Grunch:

What position are we in?

Also - I really hate BTN straddles as a concept. They're just terrible for the game.

PRE - Dude, stop. Don't 3B 86s. Don't 3B any SC's or S1G's worse than QJs in this configuration, where V is opening from EP.

Even if our read is that he's bad, he's opening EP over a BTN straddle. Whatever he has, it's going to be hard to play 86s profitably.

If we've been actively 3B'ing, each subsequent 3B becomes more likely to get called.

FLOP - My default as the PFR on ace-high boards is to check or over-bet. This hand doesn't fit into the over-bet range, so I'd just check it back, and look to make a delayed c-bet if he checks again on the turn.

If you feel like you have to bet just to keep the initiative, I'd bet small, like $55-ish, with plans to fold if V x/r's, which I'm not expecting him to do very often, if ever. We need to be mindful of the SPR we're setting up for future streets.

TURN - how are you ranging V when he raises pre, calls your 3B, and calls your fairly chunky c-bet?

I'd think he's got a lot of AX, or a better flush draw. He could have some aces-up, and if he's LAG, maybe even a straight with 53s. I doubt he's going to float the flop with 1P worse than AX.

When we make a pair, I'd probably just check back and try to get to showdown. We're now ahead of all his better flush draws, and don't mind if he stabs at it on a river brick.

If he's sticky enough to float the flop with worse 1P than AX, or if he has AX, and we want him to fold, we need to over-bet, not bet less than pot. With only $980 left in our stack, we could just jam for a little more than 2x pot.

Your turn bet sizing only leaves you around a 1/2 pot bet getting to the river. I'd love it if we had something like AxKs. Hate it when we have 86ss.

RIVER - We're not deep enough to make him fold AX. We're ahead of most of his busted draws. Doubtful he gets here with a worse 1P. The only merit to betting would be to fold out a better 1P, but that's not many combos, mostly just a few combos of JXss - KJss, QJss, JTsss.

Think I'd just check it back and hope he has a busted flush draw with no J in it.

None of this was necessary.

My BR thinks he's one of the best. He's a reliable donator over the last couple of months. I absolutely want to be HU vs this guy any chance I can.

One reg has started calling me "non profit" which bothered me at first, but then I realized it's because he thinks people line up to make donations to me.

Because he pays off when I catch. And he usually folds to my bigger bets. He can fold but most players don't pressure him enough.

I'm in CO.

86s is the bottom of my 1 gap bluff range and met my rules for running with it. I'm IP, chance to be HU, vs bad player who has a wide range that can include junk.

If I didn't hit the flop so hard, I wouldn't have run with it.

And when he does not fold to your bigger bets on flop or turn and you no longer can do a big bet relative to pot what do you think you should do on the river? Note BTW your initial description of V missed the he isn't normally sticky if you bet big clause you added in this post.

I understand about your image, and you sort of have to continue after flopping a flush draw. However. did you consider player type when deciding on this huge bluffing line?

I’m on board with the logical decision to 3b vs fish IP, just make sure you are using an appropriate 3b range! Intent not to flame here, just giving the advice that the suited dbl-gappers vs EP are going to be losing long-term. Are preflop charts available can quickly brush up on them, will be helpful.

Some things you may want to consider, for the purpose of making some adjustments to how you approach the game...

Generally, we should be thinking more about what our opponents are doing, to develop reads on them, which will help us range them and exploit them. We shouldn't be as focused on *OUR* perceived table image, because very often, our low-stakes opponents just aren't paying that much attention, and won't adjust.

So, rather than try to get opponents to fold because you have an OMC image, you should exploit opponents' tendencies to over-fold, over-call, or over-bluff. It should be like, at least 90% about what we know they're doing, and maybe at most 10% about what we think they think we're doing.

If you want to occasionally get OOL, fine, but consider doing it with stronger hands when you're 3B'ing an opponent who doesn't like to fold, or just do it against someone who over-folds.

I mean...consider the logic you're using. You agree that when you've been 3B'ing a lot, opponents start to call more. If that's true, does it make sense to 3B a very speculative holding, for a large size?

If you're going to do this, it becomes that much more important that we can effectively range our opponents post-flop. If they're calling our 3B with a strong range, does it make sense to bet any board that's A or K high?

How often are we going to be able to get them to lay down TP+ post-flop, in a 3B pot? How much of our stack will we have to put at risk to accomplish that goal?

Conversely, consider how much more profitable it is to actually 3B a strong AX or KX combo, and then be able to bet it for value, expecting to get called by our opponents' stronger ranges.

The check-or-over-bet ace-high boards strat is something I picked up from watching Hungry Horse videos.

The reasoning is that ace-high boards tend to be dry / static, and as a result our opponents will slow play more, and won't fold AX to a single bet, even a large one.

So our good hands benefit from betting large, whereas our bluffs benefit from just checking back and trying to realize, while gathering more info from our opponents' actions on the next street.

It's interesting to see what hands HH will bet for value or as a bluff on these boards, depending on the stack depth and configuration. He'd be more likely to over-bet K4s or K2s here than 86ss, because he blocks AK, 44 and 22.

A hand like AK might only be value bet for 2 streets at this stack depth, and in this configuration, where our opponent opened from EP. He might only go for 3 streets with aces up or better, hoping to cooler worse AX.

The FD you have doesn't fit into the over-bet part of the range, because you unblock the AX+ hands that will continue.

I'd add that at low stakes, our opponents will VPIP a lot of trashy AXs and AXo combos, such that I try to remember they can have aces up on almost any ace-high board.

You seem to have enough of a read to form some thoughts about what he might have and what he might do.

I'm inferring that you think he'd sometimes x/r flop or donk turn with 2P or a set, so you're discounting those, at least somewhat, but not entirely. You think he'll call 3 streets with PP's below the ace, like KK or whatever.

So now you can give him a range that falls into a few buckets - some thick / nutty value of 2P or sets, some thin value of AX, and some SDV like KK or worse PP's. That part done, now you have to consider what parts of that range you want to target to raise, call or fold before you act on each street.

What's concerning is that you've acknowledged he can call down with KK or worse, suggesting that he's not folding AX or better. Effectively, you've decided to run a multi-street bluff vs an opponent who doesn't have much of a fold button, and can't often find it.

To add to this, ask yourself how often he 4B's pre with KK. Ask what the bottom of his 4B range might be. QQ? JJ? AK? If he's 4B'ing some of those hands, then he's called your 3B with something weaker than that, and then decided to call your chunky flop c-bet.

That should tell you that he's really sticky. If he has something worse than QQ, he doesn't just lose to AX, he loses to all your higher PP's like KK and QQ. But he doesn't care.

Ask yourself, is he really THAT bad? Is he really going to continue past the flop with JJ or worse? Or does he just have AX or better, and he's never folding? If he's calling down the whole way with KK, would he also call down the whole way with any PP from 99-QQ?

Is this the guy we want to bluff?

The line of checking back the turn with SDV to bluff catch river is another tidbit I picked up from watching HH videos. Whenever I've found myself barreling turn with SDV + a draw, or just SDV on a draw-heavy board, it's often the case that my opponent has a better hand on the river.

Checking back with SDV allows our opponents to continue with a wider / weaker range, and will increase their bluffing frequency on the river. Very often, they'll telegraph their hand strength with their bet sizing, going bigger with thick value and smaller with bluffs or SDV.

It's tempting to think our pair of 8's needs some protection on this board, but it really doesn't. If we check back, V isn't likely to turn a better hand into a bluff by betting huge on the river. And if he does, that's fine, because he has a better hand. He's letting us off the hook, and we can just fold.

He's also not likely to bet huge with a worse hand. Think about it, does he have many worse 1P hands that even get to the turn? And if he does, how often is he going to bet more than 1/2-2/3 pot on the river with them, if we check back the turn?

If he's on a flush draw that gets there, and he bets big, we can just fold. If he bets small on a brick, like half-pot-ish, our hand is a decent bluff-catcher. We can still improve to a flush ourselves, and call off if he stabs at it for a reasonable size.

This point dovetails with being able to effectively range V. Would he 4B pre with any AX combos, especially AK? If so, then we can discount those, and assign him a range of worse AX. If we think he'll find a hero-fold if we jam turn for 2x pot, then a 2x pot jam makes more sense than betting 75% pot and only leaving a 1/2 PSB behind for the river.

Last point - stop using bet sizes between 1/2 and full pot on flops and turns. That's lazy sizing. Think about what you're trying to accomplish on each street, and you'll find that betting less than 1/2 pot, or full pot or more, is more effective.

Regardless of my actual hand, my preferred line here would be to check back or over-bet the flop; then check back, over-bet (probably just a jam), or bet small (to recap V) on the turn; and then evaluate river, but mostly check back or find a bet size intended to get calls or folds from a specific part of his range.

For example, if we had AJ or better here, I'd be sizing up to get called by worse AX, or sizing down to get called by his PP's below AX. With 8x, I'd probably mostly just check back. With a busted flush draw, I'd probably bet small, just trying to fold out his better flush draws with no pair. Or I might bet a middling size, just hoping to fold out 1P holdings that are better than ours.

Sorry to beat you up, but again, all of this was unnecessary. If you want to do this, work on ranging V and finding the line which exploits his leaks. This guy doesn't fold enough. We shouldn't be trying to bluff him. Instead, we should give him some rope to try and bluff us when we can bluff-catch.

Honestly not sure why you are asking about this hand ... seems entirely street poker. Will be almost impossible to guess what your range looks like on the river and even more difficult to guess at V's range.

Hopefully you have some idea wtf he called the flop with, and/or if he's ever folding AQ/AT.

Would guess he almost has to have better that should call, or worse ... so bluffing seems bad on river, but maybe you are asking for thoughts on what worse hands he'd call with? But, again, that seems like something you'd hopefully know better. Maybe river hits enough of his flush draw range, and he folds Jx, or he calls 77/55/4x that shove is fine.

Also maybe there's some value in you checking, and if he wins you can pretend you had KsQs or something and fold without destroying your image? Eh, on the other side shoving river charges max for you blowing up your image, you don't have to show if he folds K high and if he fast rolls it you can still pretend you had KsQs.

From a stupid neutral/GTO POV: Preflop seems mid, at best, you can just call. Flop is a massive punt, you can check or bet way smaller. Turn is an overplay, can still check or bet smaller esp. as even street poker wise I'd assume you'd be better with river atleast 1.5 SPR.

Maybe preflop and turn are good/fine on your streets though.

OK, river blanks, V x, and my rule is I should bet there because he's checked every street, but it was AI or check, and I chickened out.

V shows 55 and says he was drawing to the straight. A gut shot straight. That is why I target the guy. My 8s take the pot, though I admit it was hugely lucky. I tightened up significantly since my OMC cover was blown. A few hours later no one seemed to remember my idiocy.

Good check back. He wasn't calling a jam with worse 1P.

Grunch:

Preflop, I wouldn't 3bet someone who won't fold if my hand is 86s.

As played, flop is a must bet, I would bet a lot less though. In a vaccuum, we should have a strong range advantage here and can print money against this guy by simply betting nearly all A-high flops. Exploitatively, a small bet sets a price for us to draw vs. a fish with the side benefit of folding his worst hands that still beat us e.g. some Jx/Qx/Kx hands.

Turn I xb as played because we now have showdown value, this may be an error though, ask someone who's good at poker.

River I snap xb as played because we still have some showdown value and this guy is presumably never folding Ax.

I like it, purely because if you had gotten there and stacked the guy, you could have said, "86'd him, " and got a laugh as he headed for the door.

A river bet wouldn't be to get him to call, it would be to get him to fold so I didn't have to show. I put a lot of effort into my image in that particular game and try to never show a bluff.

I understood the point you were making.

You should be happy they saw the bluff. Now your value bets will get paid off.