Preflop spot splashy 5/5
H open utg1 AQo. abc tight villain 3bets lj to 70. two fish cold call (both terrible and splashy) and its back on us at 500 effective. One fish is OTB and one is SB. We are 500 effective with LJ and 300 effective with fish.
I would normally fold this, but how do we feel calling here getting insane odds closing the action and we get to play a huge pot with 2 fish if we call. Fish could easily have dominated Ax and Qx, but obviously we put LJ on a range of JJ+ AK.
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9 Replies
What was your open amount? It's relevant to know if LJ was raising a strange amount.
I really don’t like playing AQo oop 4 way. It’s a trouble hand in this spot because when you hit your ace, you’re dominated by tptk AK in LJ range and two pair Ax from the callers. I would rather play a suited broadway or pocket pair in this spot.
It's probably a fold based on your description of the 3-bettor's perceived range being JJ+, AK.
If you were to continue, I think I like using your hand as a 4-bet bluff better than calling, assuming you think the 3-bettor is capable of folding a big hand. You could potentially make it like $150, representing AA and KK. Then fold if the tight raiser jams and get it in vs the fish.
I still probably just fold. If you 4-bet small you are close to pricing yourself in facing a jam from the tight player. Also he could just flat, and then you're in a difficult, low SPR spot.
I really don't like flatting either, although I can see why you would have the temptation to call in game, with the two fish in the pot.
Yeah "ABC tight villain" 3b is a flip at best with our AQo. Such a V would understand that our UTG+! opening range is strong and he 3b anyway.
Just fold and try to target the fish later. No point mixing it up with a solid player oop.
Grunch:
My first thought is to wonder if LJ may be getting somewhat OOL because he thinks we may have been getting OOL prior to this. If we've been raising a lot, that may change our analysis.
How I'd range him would depend on whether I think he's been patiently waiting for a strong hand to 3B us, or if he's become impatient and is 3B'ing as a bluff. If we think he's just got JJ+/AK, we don't need to think about it at all. We can just fold.
Next thought I'd have is that I'd prefer to 4B and possibly get this heads up with anyone rather than go four ways to the flop. I'd like to ISO the dead money. Bonus points if LJ and BTN fold and the SB calls, so we get to play HU and IP post. Even if LJ folds and BTN calls, we can condense his range a lot, and apply max pressure on future streets.
The problem is that we're only starting $500 effective with LJ. Any reasonable 4B size would pot commit us. We can't 4B-fold if one of the $300 stacks jams. We'd be better off just 4B-jamming all in. If we can get LJ to fold anything in a JJ+/AK range, that's a huge win. Of course, we're probably getting stacked when he doesn't fold.
Also, if we jam, he calls, and either/both of the other two shrug-call, it's going to be very hard for us to scoop.
After that, I'd be thinking about our relative position on the 3B'er. If he c-bets, we'll be closing the action, and get to see what the other two do before we have to act.
Then I'd be thinking about the SPR. The two fish will have less than 1 PSB remaining on the flop. We'll have less than 2 PSB's with LJ. Seems like we'll have to play the flop as a jam or check-fold, which sucks with AQo.
Our path to victory here is pretty narrow. I think folding and jamming are both probably higher EV than calling. Not sure if jamming or folding is better. In a tournament, I think I'd jam. In a cash game, probably fold.
just folding. wait for an easier and less dominated hand to play like a pair or something.
My thing is with AQo is that you’re never going to be better than a 60% favorite from any position, you have nearly no chance when dominated, and you (like everyone else) miss the flop most of the time.
Understanding Doyle better now and I think it takes a number of favorable conditions to make the hand worth playing. I no longer find it hard to fold UTG in an aggressive game.
You feel happy to get involved with all the action, but understand you need nut hands in a crowd. Your logic doesn’t fit the hand.
In a 5/5 game, the proper BI is about $1500 - 2000. You are way understacked for AQo UTG. It would be interesting to see what GG will say about this. I'm not sure if he would open but he definitely won't call is my guess. I don't play short, so take everything I say with a grain of salt.
Short stacked, you want a strong hand that can GII or a primo drawing hand like JTs. Once there is a good sized 3B, you probably won't have enough stack to run people off of hands with a bluff. A lot of the advice you'll see in this forum or from a pro advisor is not applicable to shortstack play.
Playing short, if you are not going to wait for premiums that can 4B, then something like JTs or AQo should limp and be content to throw it away cheap to a big raise or just call a small raise. I think the exception is that if it is a very active table and you think there is little chance a UTG limp will make it back to you for less than 7 - 9 bigs, then forget about a limp strat. Just condense your UTG range to something very tight, maybe JJ+, AK+ and play FOF for the most part. For me, a "fit" is at least TPGK but even better is an 8+ out draw when you are leading the action.
Lol, AQo is definitely an open UTG with 100xBB.