Looking for thoughts on this hand.
First time poster. I’m looking to hear people’s thoughts on this final hand I played in a live tournament.
18
Coming back to this hand...Everyone is talking about Villain being UTG. With 15 left, depending on which table we are at, he is either UTG1, or UTG2.Hero said Villain is a solid player, capable of applying max pressure to shorter stacks. This needs to be unpacked. Does Villain massively cover everyone else? If so, his opening range will be much wider than if there is anothe
Did you account for ICM in the postflop sim? It drastically changes things. That is even though I agree with your earlier point that ICM is imperfect, failing to account for future game. It is still better than chip EV in this sort of spot. The solver I use can only handle postflop ICM with 1 table remaining, and I'm not sure if PIO is capable of running two table postflop ICM sims.
Anyway if you're considering folding top pair and a gutter on the flop due to the sizing tell, do you see now the argument for folding pre due to ICM?
Did you account for ICM in the postflop sim It drastically changes things. That is even though I agree with your earlier point that ICM is imperfect, failing to account for future game. It is still better than chip EV in this sort of spot. The solver I use can only handle postflop ICM with 1 table remaining, and I'm not sure if PIO is capable of running two table postflop ICM s
Yes, I used ICM, PIO lets you do 2 tables. PIO (or GTO Wiz, I'd assume) will tell you that Villain doesn't use this size, so we have entered the realm of exploit.
I gave the solver just 2e as Villains bet size (which is how I'd play this spot). Now it does use this size 40% of the time. It's only a bet of 43 instead of 55, so I think we can see something relevant.
I still get that KJo is a mix between call/fold/jam, except the combos that have Js never fold.
Villain's bluffs are still ones that a human at this level won't find. They are the weakest Axs without a flush draw, and small pocket pairs with some other bluffs that have some equity, ie Q8, AJ, AQ. A human would be much more inclined to have the higher equity bluffs like all the Axs, and other flush draws.
It's pretty gross, but if this player is using AA in this line, I'd be surprised if he isn't skewed towards strongest made hands and strongest semi bluffs, which really makes this hand a fold.
It makes sense for villain to use lower equity draws as bluffs at this stack depth. That way they can just fold if jammed on without wasting as much equity as they would if they were forced to fold a strong draw.
With ICM forcing the covered player to play so tight, the covering stack would probably have to fold even most high equity draws if they were check raised all in. That would be kind of a disaster to fold so much equity. So the high equity draws likely want to mostly check to make sure they can see all five board cards, and the weak draws can be used to balance their value range.
Anyway I tend to agree with your assessment that humans will be more nutted when they bet with that sizing. So if KJo is mixing folds at equilibrium on the flop, then it is likely a pure fold against most human players.
That actually surprises me that KJo is mixing folds at equilibrium. I would have assumed top pair with a gutter would have been too strong to fold on the flop, at least from a solver's perspective.
Also on another note, the stakes are pretty relevant here because this spot will play much differently at high stakes compared to low stakes. The high stakes villains probably find more of the low equity bluffs. I didn't reread the whole thread, but I don't think stakes were noted in the OP.
Did you account for ICM in the postflop sim It drastically changes things. That is even though I agree with your earlier point that ICM is imperfect, failing to account for future game. It is still better than chip EV in this sort of spot. The solver I use can only handle postflop ICM with 1 table remaining, and I'm not sure if PIO is capable of running two table postflop ICM s
Yes! That was my first thought….tough spot. That being said, we could just flop a clean top pair and never fold. The gutter obviously gives us equity when we are behind but this coordinated board also hits Villains range better than say J32
Can you show me what Hero's range looks like at equilibrium? I may be quite a bit off with what I used.
At 22 BBs we probably have more jams than I used, and few pocket pairs in general. I did have hero slow playing AA,KK some. Always jamming AK, defending the rest of the suited broadways and QJ+
