$1/2 KK vs unknown raise on 10 high flop

I would mostly check this flop OOP to two cold-callers but I don’t hate betting.

I feel pretty strongly that the only good option facing this flop raise is to call. Folding is too tight against a relative unknown. Worse value is possible and there are a number of available straight draws.

On the other hand, raising is so strong that it gets many of the worse hands in V’s range to fold.

After calling the flop raise, I would play very cautiously facing increased aggression on later streets.

Tbh, I want to fold here. I'm fine tho with call and see if barrel 2 goes off.

Leaning more fold due to V2 calling your cbet, then the V1 raise only 3x. V1 could just suck, or this is "I have 99, please don't fold."

Live reads: do they seem totally excited, are they screwing around, etc.

Call
Flop bets are never to be trusted and villain is also looking at a call from a guy that hasn’t played a hand in a hour. He has to consider that strong.

Though you could raise, you’re betting into the unknown. By calling, you stand to gain info. If you do have a bluff-catcher, it’s a pretty strong one.

Checking to the raiser and see what villain does. This is a situation where you worry less about getting value, and more about not getting stacked.

It’s very possible v takes the FreeCard on the turn, but if he bets big the decision will be difficult - let’s see what happens

Grunch:

PRE - looks good to me.

FLOP - think it's okay to check from OOP when multi-way. Also okay to c-bet if you think action will just check through. Bet size seems ok to me.

V's raise size seems fishy. Don't think I'd want to fold. Also don't really love the spot with rando getting a great price if we just flat call.

I dunno man. I feel like the solver jockeys would lose their minds if we think about folding, but it feels like a fairly under-bluffed spot.

I guess call and see what happens next.

I would rather check oop on this flop, which is not good for your range. That way you avoid occasionally getting raised like this and can get more information from what the others do.

Why is this flop not good for our range? Are we not opening 99+ and T9s+ pre? Seems like we could have TP+ here a lot, and our opponents are unlikely to have very many strong hands on T92r.

None of us are opening solver recommended ranges so the flop solution isn't 100% applicable (you probably know this already, but the value for solvers is the ability to infer patterns in the solver strategy and then try to apply them to our own games). For an accurate flop solution, we would need to lock in a node with our RFI ranges and the ranges we think villains are calling with preflop.

OTOH, it's pretty straightforward to figure out how many combos are in our opening range, see where our hand falls as a percentile within those combos, then compare to MDF to get an idea on whether to fold of continue. For me, it's a coin flip and probably a fold because of rake.

My point wasn't to guess what a solver would do here. It was predicting what people who care about solvers would say we should do, because they tend to discount live reads / population reads as a fundamentally sound basis for deviating from theory.

I'm guessing they'd say we can't win long-term if we fold KK here. Not sure if they'd say we should flat call or raise.

I'm on the fence about raise / call / fold because I think population reads, the SPR and the multi-way-ness of the situation muddy the water enough to make me think the EV's are likely to run pretty close.

I'm not sitting in a 1/2 game doing combo-counting, percentages, and MDF calcs in my head. If I'm in the game and I see a guy tanking every time he's facing a $50 bet, I'll start calling clock after 10 seconds. I DGAF about his feelings or bankroll.

I'm more likely to flick in a "whatever" call, and defer having to make a big decision to a later street. I wouldn't like doing it, but I'd see it as the least bad among three less than appetizing choices here.

How did you calculate that the MDF is 47% here? The raise is $35 and the size of the pot including Villain's bet is $110. And that is really your entire cbetting range in this spot? No draws or thinner value bets?

Oh, $hlt. We got us a mathlete competition brewing.

Errbuddy hold on while I go microwave some popcorn. This is about get...well, not "interesting", exactly, but...I guess "educational".

FWIW I'm not a huge math guy and I don't know a ton about MDF. That number just doesn't seem right? This is a spot where Hero has to defend pretty often (even 3-way) and KK should be relatively high in range.

MDF calc is:
Pot size (before their bet)
divided by
Pot size plus their bet

So, in our example:
45
divided by
45+50

47%

I thought the action was preflop: $10, $10, $10; flop cbet $15 then villain raises $50. Your numbers are different, so maybe I didn't understand the action.

I didn't calculate directly, I used ChatGPT because I'm lazy. But, there is free online MDF calculator here:

https://www.splitsuit.com/mdf-101-and-free-calculator

splitsuit.com

MDF 101 + Free Calculator In 2026 | SplitSuit Poker

You're right, I probably do cbet suited AK or suited AQ that has backdoor flush draws... so, six more combos? That's going to put KK around 41% in my range. I think it's the same decision for me with my range... probably a fold theoretically because of rake, but I probably peel in real time.

FWIW, my EP opening range is super tight because, in my games, EP openers tend to see the flop 4 or 5 handed.

Your range will likely be different than mine as you adjust strategy for your games. As you point out, if you are opening wider then you'll theoretically need to defend wider (but you should be deviating to exploit your opponents -- I mean, if you know that nobody in the pool is ever raising here without two pair plus, then the exploitative fold is easy... or, if you know villain is very bluffy and spewy, then we continue wider).

Yeah, nobody that I know is doing that on the fly -- Jungle is the only person that I've ever heard say he can count the combos in his range while live, calc MDF live, then break his range into value and bluffs.

I do like the theoretical study and solver-based practice away from the game, though. I think it improves my game at the table.

There is an additional call on the flop as well, so the pot is $60 before Villain raises to $50. So I guess that would change your number to 55%? If you're folding KK, that means you're only continuing TT, 99, and AA? Really hard for me to believe that could be a mathematically correct response in this spot.

Cbetting AKs and AQs with a backdoor makes sense to me. What about AJs, ATs, KQs, KJs, QJs? I guess you're mucking those hands pre? Or limping? Super tight indeed.

Couple thoughts:

To clarify H is facing $35 raise into $110 with rando behind. I believe V is raising for value based on reads, but as an ABC fish over pairs, TP, 2p and sets all would be value to him. I don’t believe V has AA in his range. And rando is just F’ing around. Although if H calls rando is facing $35 into $145 so better than 4:1. What calls the $15 and doesn’t call the $35 more?

Also worth nothing that a fall call creates a 1.7 SPR OTT.

H definitely has all the suited broadways with this line but neither V or rando has any idea about range construction.

And as to the validity of a flop 3b, if V has JJ, QQ as an ABC fish with an overpair H may be able to stack V with a move right now.

We're splitting hairs a bit about the pot size and I don't think it matters much to the overall topic surrounding MDF.

With that said, I'm pretty sure it's $30 on the flop, here is OP:

Then hero cbets $15, so $45 in pot when villain drops $50 on top. (I guess we're assuming the house drops $3 on flop).

I don't think that I'm folding any overpair in real time, I've seen too many villains raise any ten here to see where they are at... but according to MDF, I would be over calling.

I try to build my game strategy with correct play, then deviate according to reads.

MDF isn't full GTO, so maybe we shouldn't call it mathematically correct - rather call it balanced. It just means that villains can't raise indiscriminately here and take advantage of me.

I'm not sure what OP means by EP, I'm assuming UTG or UTG+1. AJs, ATs, KQs, KJs, QJs are all not in my standard UTG/UTG+1 RFI range -- my games tend to be that loose. I do not open limp (well, occasionally I will with big PPs if maniac behind me is raising every hand and getting the domino effect callers).

I think it's too easy for V to fold JJ and TX to a 3bet on the flop. If you have reason to believe he will stack off with those hands, I could get behind jamming. Otherwise, call and try to get additional value on later streets. Letting the random in with his garbage isn't the worst thing in the world either.

If you are going to try and use math (or have an LLM use math) to justify an unreasonably tight fold, it actually matters a lot whether the pot is 33% bigger or not. Again, you are missing that there is an additional call of $15 on the flop. It's included in the post you quoted! Apparently we agree that this is a call anyway.

Oh, you're right... I missed that rando called the cbet before villain raised.

Consensus seems to be that flatting the raise is the play. H flats the $35, rando folds.

Turns ($145)
T92r 3

H x, V x ??? So I guess V has more air in his range than I was thinking. Or maybe small pairs that ‘put me on AK’.

River ($145)
T92r 3 4r

H ? Surely H is betting here. V can’t really have sets or 2p after checking turn. So he has JJ, QQ, TP, under pairs and air. At the table in real time I was thinking this guy has an overpair.

H?

Yeah man. Must bet. Probably potting it.

Gotta bet now. As to size, if he has a busted draw doesn't really matter; he's going to more than likely fold given river raises are so underbluffed in low stakes. We need to target a call from random Tens, JJ, QQ so I am going like 80 to 100 folding to a raise even though odds will be good.

Results:
H bets $50, V calls with QQ and H is struck trying to figure out how much value he left on the table. Clearly on the river I should have sized up. $80-100 gets called the same as $50. Still feels like I played it too cautiously.

In game I'd be thinking his range is going to be split between hands that were FOS when he raised flop, and can't call any bet, and SDV that wanted to slow you down, but will now call a big bet.

I don't see the point in betting $50 or even $80-$100 if we're targeting his SDV. Especially if we think he's putting us on AK. When we likely have the best hand, I'd want to extract max value with a larger bet. At a minimum, I'd bet pot, if not slightly more than pot.