2nl AQs 3 bet pre in big blind against utg, turn shove defend question
Yatahay Network - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3 : https://www.holdemmanager.com
MP: $1.39 (69.5 bb)
CO: $0.80 (40 bb)
BTN: $3.21 (160.5 bb)
SB: $3.02 (151 bb)
Hero (BB): $3.50 (175 bb)
UTG: $6.19 (309.5 bb)
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SB posts $0.01, Hero posts BB $0.02, CO posts $0.01
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Pre Flop: (pot: $0.04) Hero has Ad Qd
UTG raises to $0.08, 4 folds, Hero raises to $0.32, UTG calls $0.24
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Flop: ($0.66, 2 players) Jd As 6h
Hero bets $0.21, UTG raises to $0.42, Hero calls $0.21
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Turn: ($1.50, 2 players) 8d
Hero checks, UTG bets $5.45 and is all-in, Hero calls $2.76 and is all-in
Results: $7.02 pot ($0.25 rake)
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I'm trying to get better at poker lately, I want to make sure that I made the +ev play in calling villain's shove. I think I'm basically looking at a set of jacks, AK or AJ all of which beat me, and I only have 9 outs to the flush, and 3 additional outs with a Q if it's AJ or AK villain is holding. Can someone walk me through what I should be doing math wise or thought wise in this situation please?
I have 43 hands on the villain which is hardly any, but stats look normal. 28/21 and has opened 4/12 times from EP.
Thank you
2 Replies
X flop here a lot. Super dry, and you're in a 3-bet pot vs UTG raise. Not a ton of value to be had there. As played at these stakes I probably make an exploitative flop fold to the min raise. 28/21, which means he probably knows enough to not raise AT or worse or try and bluff w/ a min raise, as you won't be folding out for those odds. I don't hate the call of course, and for looser villians a call is almost always correct.
As played, fold to the turn shove. You're cooked more often than not at that price.
FreakDaddy has the strategy right, so here is the math walkthrough you asked for. Price first: you are calling $2.76 and the final pot is $7.02, so you need about 39 percent. Now equity against the hands that actually jam 3.6x pot there. Against AK you have nine diamonds plus three queens, twelve outs, about 27 percent. Against AJ, the same twelve. Against JJ or 66 you drop to roughly eight clean outs, because the 6d pairs the board and fills them up. Weight those however you like and you land in the mid twenties needing 39. Clear fold, even holding the prettiest draw on the board.
The thought-wise part: you listed the hands that beat you, noticed nothing worse takes this line, and called anyway. Trust the first two steps next time. Top pair plus the nut flush draw is a bluff-catcher with outs by that node, and outs need a price. Your instinct that giant turn aggression at 2NL means value was also right, that read and the pot math were both telling you to fold.
