Low Straight with Nut Flush Draw -- Getting the Right Odds?
1/3 NL
Hero in SB with AQdd, stack ~300, covered by all opponents
UTG reg opens 15. BTN (LAG) calls.
I call -- considered 3-betting but was concerned about UTG's strong opening range and didn't love playing a bloated pot out of position with little maneuverability. I invite being flamed about this lol, though to my surprise it seems like solvers prefer a call. BB completes.
(60) Flop 2d 3h 4c [truthfully, I don't remember the suits, but it was rainbow with 1 diamond and don't think it strongly matters which]
I check in flow and it checks around.
(60) Turn 2d 3h 4c 5d
I lead out for 30 on what seems like the best card in the deck for me, hoping to at worst be freerolling someone who also has an ace. BB calls. UTG folds. BTN raises to 130.
Do we:
A) Jam and hope to get the money in against another ace, or get hands we're chopping with to fold, and hope nobody has a 6.
B) Call. We might still be ahead or at least chopping, and are nearly getting the right direct odds, and almost certainly getting enough implied odds on the flush draw if someone has a 6.
C) Fold. The BB's call with two left to act, and the BTN's raise on top of that, are extremely strong. Somebody has a 6. We're not deep enough to make it worthwhile to hope to hit the flush.
1 Reply
PRE - calling seems ok. 3B would also be okay.
FLOP - check seems standard.
TURN - leading seems ok. Not sure what size is best. Half pot might be too in-between. Might be better to bet 1/3 pot or 1.5x pot.
Wouldn't hate checking again, expecting someone to bet now.
As played, I don't think BTN is bluffing very often, if ever. This is going to be 6x a lot. I'd assume we might only have 9 outs, and pray he doesn't have 76dd, such that we'd only have 7 outs.
Don't think we have much fold equity. But the BB call does make me wonder if we're better off jamming to get BB to fold, even if BTN never folds. This could be a situation where everyone has an ace and we profit from getting BB to fold his chop equity, or we deny 2P or a set the opportunity to fill up.
Don't think it makes sense to fold. Close decision between call or jam.
Possible curve ball - clicking it back to $230 might look like the super nuts (76dd), and might get everything that isn't 76dd to fold now, or fold when we jam river for our last $55.
We know no one has a draw to the nut flush, so I think that line could get some made hands to fold, whereas if we jam, we'll have more bluffs in our range, and get fewer folds.
Even if someone has 76dd, we're not drawing dead, and it'll be hard for them to fold river on another diamond, when it's only another $55.
