Female flight crew suspected of auto-piloting at 1/3

I'm probably just confused as to what the plan was. I was assuming we weren't really pumped at stacking off at this SPR (and thus a big reason why we checked the flop). But if the plan was to get in stacks and the flop check was more for deceit, then fine, carry on with the plan.

GcluelessplannoobG

In broad strokes, the plan from OOP as the PFR is:

1. Check flop. See if V stabs, and what size.

2. When he checks back, bet small on cards which seem likely to change the nuts, or bet huge on a brick.

It's not that we are or are not looking to get stacks in by the river per se. That depends on the stack depth. We're just trying to maximize our wins and minimize our losses.

If I'd bet bigger pre, I could size up on turn, and usually be happy to get the rest in on most run-outs.

Just realized my desire to be brief in my response led me to contradict my earlier statement about getting stacks in.

Yes, I want to get stacks in whenever I fare to have the best hand, but that decision gets made by way of prior decisions, and our opponent's response, and how that all affects his range.

I had more response typed out, but am now realizing my OOP strat in spots like this may need review.

Actually I can play passively too and will check the flop OOP at times. But not this board - this is a bluffers board Jxx - nobody hits that. All he did was give up value, because the checkback was coming.

I know how much passive play means to you and I’m not knocking it. But you knocking aggressive play is interesting when that’s where most of the good players are.

3pages of overthinking is simply not enough to convince me not to bet the flop after 3betting

Flops J53, Q24, T26, 357, etc I bet

Now yeah, it’s time to check with
JT4, QJ7, QT9, etc.

I also like a larger 3bet pre to set up a lower SPR.

On the flop QQ should be one of our highest frequency c bets, both in theory and in practice. We unblock Jx top pairs and are still vulnerable to random A and K turns. If you're going to check flop with an overpair I would rather do it with AA or even KK.

On the turn your reasoning for over betting seems somewhat contradictory. Not that I completely hate it, but if he's always stabbing flop with his strong hands then after he checks back why would you size your bet in a way that mostly only strong hands will call when you are clearly betting for value? It worked this time to get called, but that's mostly because your flop read wasn't accurate.

As played river check call to pick off bluffs from missed draws seems fine to me.

Overall though against the described player I'm probably bet/folding flop and turn, and would be in a totally different spot on the river.

There's some nuance in my flop strat that I may be missing in game, and that I omitted from discussion.

The point of checking from OOP is to give opponents a chance to stab. But the value comes from having the correct read that our opponent is a weak player who will over-stab when we check. If we have the read that V is more competent, and thus less likely to over-stab or have sizing tells when they bet, we c-bet more.

Here again, I may have been auto-piloting when I checked, without really thinking about whether or not this V would over-stab flop. In hindsight I think checking may be okay, but I can see arguments for c-betting. V has loosened up after hitting the high hand, and his raise-call pre would indicate a stronger range that we could target for value. I could just go bet-bet-bet here, maybe.

Once the flop checks through, I'm supposed to check again on the turn, with the expectation that he's going to bet when I check twice. I'm supposed to check-raise at that point. I forgot about going for the check raise, and just reverted to betting my hand for value. I think betting there is fine, but if I was thinking more, I might have figured out that I was targeting a stronger range, and bet bigger. Again, I think I was auto-piloting by going for a smaller over-bet.

The turn over-bet vs a capped range is part of our IP strat, where we c-bet small on the flop to cap V. I'm not sure it makes as much sense from OOP when the flop checks through. I'll have to think about it more, but maybe the strat is over-bet or check, depending on SPR, board texture, and how we range V. I think the over-bet is fine here, but again, I didn't give any thought to taking any other action.

Upon further review, I'm back to thinking my 3B and turn bets should have been bigger, but my flop check is fine. The main decision point to consider is the river. At low stakes, opponents are under-bluffing so much that I think this should just be a bet-fold or check-fold.

My calibration / ranging of V was a bit off. I don't think he's going to raise-call pre, and call the turn over-bet, and bet 1/2 pot on the river with enough lower PP's or busted draws to make it a profitable call on the river. As hard as it was to think he'd check back flop with TP, I should just give him credit card for JX and fold.

I don't think Villain is going to be stabbing at this flop with worse nearly as often as you imagine. And when he does, he is going to shut down almost always unless you call and Villain improves on the turn.

Your goals should be to get two streets of value as often as you can and to lose as little as possible when things go sideways. I think those goals will be best served by betting the flop most of the time.

In a 3BP, I'd think opponents are going to stab at this flop texture a lot. They'll stab with all their draws, all their TP combos, all their 2P/sets, and any 1P combo that they think needs protection from all the obvious draws and over-card combos in our range.

If the goal is two streets of value, then it's fine if he stabs flop, shuts it down when we call and he checks back turn, and we bet the river.

doc you said one of the main reasons you checked was that AK 4bets at some frequency; I don't get that logic, as the remaining AK that just call will sometimes call and sometimes fold if you cber, and sometimes check and sometimes bet if you don't. I just don't see it comes into the equation much.

I much prefer a flop cbet - probably a small one - to build the pot against underpairs and Jx before the board gets scary for anyone, and to deny equity to the Ax and Kx hands.

Generally agree with illiterat, Spanishmoon and Greatwhitefish. River check-call seems fine as played.

Sorry if I gave that impression. I was specifically responding to Adonson's question about giving AX/KX combos a free card. I did say I think AK will sometimes be 4B pre, the implication being that I think he has less AK in his range when he doesn't 4B. But I wouldn't characterize that as one of the main reasons to check.

I believe opponents at low stakes will over stab when we check to them, full stop. So I'm not very concerned that they'll check back and catch up at a high frequency. I further believe that on many board textures, they'll telegraph their hand strength with their bet sizing.

On the other hand, I also believe they'll slow play more in position, and float wide, such that it's difficult to range them when they flat call a c-bet. To the extent they fold out the worst hands in their range when we c-bet, we're strengthening their range that gets to the turn by betting. But to the extent that they'll stab when checked to, we get more value from their range as a whole, and they cap themselves when they check back or bet small.

I think you might be surprised how much the IP caller is supposed to stab when checked to from the OOP aggressor. I think low limit players actually probably tend to under-stab compared to how much they're supposed to bet in a lot of spots at equilibrium. I've seen MDA analysis to this effect too (generally speaking, not in this specific spot). The data suggests taking more aggressive lines is often going to be more profitable with our strong hands. Basically LS players don't bet enough but call too much.

Especially in 3 bet pots, I find players often play very cautiously when checked to, fearing the check raise. I see people check back strong top pairs a lot when the preflop 3-bettor checks to them.

The other problem with your line is that even if they bet small on the flop and you just call, they will often check back turn, and you're letting them see all five cards far too cheaply and missing out on a lot of value.

I do agree with the part of your post about LS players telegraphing their hand strength with their sizing a lot, but I don't think that's enough of a reason to want to check here.

My suspicion is that you're trying to check to induce because players often fold to your bets. I would think a better solution might be to bet aggressively with your strong hands and also add in additional bluffs to give them a reason to pay you off.

All that's fair. I'm not 100% convinced I took the best line here, at any point.

When I c-bet from OOP, I tend to size up with a range of very strong hands or very good draws. My checking range is typically more balanced, with a mix of nutted hands down to air/whiffs. It often depends on the board texture and the configuration, as they relate to how I'm ranging an opponent and what I think my range looks like to them.

But I think I struggle to correctly categorize my hand's relative strength in some spots, like when I have over-pairs on board textures that would seem to favor my opponent. It's harder to determine the best action or bet size in spots like this, whereas checking defers having to decide on an action.

Like, here, I don't necessarily think QQ is strong enough to want to play for stacks on the flop. Yet it's clearly a hand that can be bet for value. That ambiguity makes me less certain about going bet-bet-bet or going for a check-raise. If I'd bet flop, I'd struggle to know what to do on this turn card. But if we check-call, we're effectively playing our hand as a bluff-catcher, which also doesn't necessarily seem right.

Checking often seems best in hindsight, but very often when holding a hand with more clearly defined incentives.

Hypothetically, if I'd c-bet the flop, and V flat called, I wouldn't love the turn card. I'd likely either check or barrel small. If I checked, I wouldn't consider folding unless V over-bet. I might consider folding if I bet and he raised, which he might do here. If I check, and he checks back or bets a reasonable size, we still end up with a tough river decision when the J pairs. If I bet flop and barreled turn, I think I'd really struggle to know what to do on this river.